How the American Century Will Come to an End
20:25 30.06.2024 (Updated: 15:05 01.07.2024)
© AP Photo / Susan Walsh
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The American Empire, with all its 800 military bases worldwide is losing its military edge. Its recent successes are limited to weaker nations like Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. A geopolitical analyst SL Kanthan reveals when and how the hegemonic power will fall.
“You are a convicted felon.”
“You are a criminal. You can be a convicted felon as soon as you get out of office.”
“You are a loser. You had sex with a porn star when your wife was pregnant.”
However, it’s not just about Biden or Trump, the American Empire itself is geriatric and near its end.
To objective geopolitical analysts, the decline and decay of the USA has been apparent for a while, but the implosion will rapidly accelerate and become undeniable this decade. How will the end of the empire unfold? Let’s discuss.
In 1980, nobody in the USSR would have predicted the fall of their system. The only difference between the Soviet Union and the USA is that the latter will not dismantle itself peacefully. The extraordinary combination of hubris and greed among the oligarchs running America will be a formidable hurdle to any peaceful negotiation of a new security architecture.
Americans are terrible with history, so they think they are unique and that the American Century will last forever. But all empires rise and fall. More illuminating is the fact that all empires follow quite identical paths of growth, decay and death. One can read about the Egyptian, Roman, Greek, Chinese, Indian, Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese, French, German and the British empires, and find stunning similarities.
In the early stages, there is peace and prosperity driven by productivity and innovation. Having just come out of relative poverty, people work hard and save money.
Then, the society gets complacent and the political system slowly devolves into a kleptocracy. The empire resorts to debt and wars of plunder to compensate for the decline in the standard of living.
In the final stage, there is a breakdown of morality and purpose that unite the nation. The rulers encourage degeneracy and hedonism to distract the masses. Debt explodes, productivity and competitive advantage plummet, inequality becomes striking, patriotism loses its appeal, and civil war looms on the horizon. At this point, disciplined and determined rivals emerge to challenge and eventually defeat the empire.
Anyone analyzing the US empire can see what stage they are at right now.
Обращение Джо Байдена к гражданам США из Овального кабинета Белого дома
© AP Photo / Jonathan Ernst
The Pillars of American Empire
The American Empire is – and soon to be “was” – the largest and the most powerful in human history. With 800 military bases and “lily pads” in 140 countries, the American Empire has achieved what no other empire could in world’s history.
However, what really underpins the US empire is not the military, but the King Dollar. Created in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference, the dollar almost died in 1971 when the US defaulted on its obligations and went off the gold standard. Amazingly, the dollar was rescued with the ingenious Petrodollar deal struck with Saudi Arabia. Now, the US dollar is the de facto currency for pricing all the commodities in the world; and this demand turns the dollar into the primary currency for global trade and foreign exchange reserves for all nations.
Thus, the US dollar has two main advantages:
1.
It retains its strength despite the US’ enormous trade deficit and fiscal deficits.2.
It can be used to impose sanctions and punish nations, which disobey America.The strong dollar helps attract the best minds from all the world, a crucial factor in maintaining America’s leadership in science and technology. Innovation, of course, is a key pillar of any empire.
There is also a synergistic relationship between the dollar and US military. The hegemony of the dollar enables spending $1 trillion a year on the military as well as trillions more on perpetual wars, which are not only welfare programs for the military contractors, but also act as a warning for the vassals and potential rivals. “Do not disobey the American Empire, or else.”
While money and the military are indispensable, soft power is more crucial in a world of 8 billion people, who have easy access to diverse and abundant information.
Democracy is a dangerous word for an empire, which must thus ensure that people (voters) are thoroughly propagandized to support the empire. This is why the US media and social media dominate the information superhighway all over the world.
However, after years of neglect and hubris, the US has entered late-stage imperialism, and every one of the pillars discussed above are crumbling at the same time.
Satirized painting of the Statue of Liberty painted on the wall of the former U.S. Embassy, in Tehran, Iran
© AP Photo / Ebrahim Noroozi
US Military No Longer a Superpower
“We like war, because we are good at it. We are good at it because we get a lot of practice. We are not good at anything else anymore,” said George Carlin, the brilliant American comedian.
However, the US is losing its edge in wars as well. The only countries that the US can defeat are those who are relatively much weaker – like Iraq (that was significantly weakened after a decade of crippling sanctions), Libya, Afghanistan etc. The US helping Israel wage a genocidal war on defenseless Gaza is the most recent example.
Yet, after more than two years of conflict, Russia stays undefeated, while cocaine-snorting comedian Zelensky is warning that Ukraine has lost too many men and does not have much time left. More importantly, Russia is able to manufacture more ammunition than the deindustrialized US and Europe combined!
In the Middle East, the US tried to create a “coalition of the willing” to defeat the Houthis in Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the world. First, almost no European country joined the so-called Operation Prosperity Guardian. Second, the ragtag Yemeni resistance group has not only withstood American bombing but is shooting down American drones and is even launching anti-ship ballistic missiles against US aircraft carriers.
As for the famed American military contractors, they cannot produce missiles, fighter jets and aircraft carriers without Chinese products and components – including rare earth elements, which are indispensable to practically every high-tech weapon. As the CEO of Raytheon confessed, his company depends on thousands of Chinese suppliers.
China now has the world’s largest navy in the world. And its shipbuilding capability is a whopping 250 times larger than America’s. When it comes to drone technology, China is so much more advanced than the US that the Ukrainian army has rejected American drones for Chinese DJI drones.
More consequential is the fact that China and Russia have hypersonic missiles, which the US has not figured out yet. Combine the hypersonic missiles with 1000 nuclear warheads that China will have by 2030, and once can safely bet that there will not be a US-China hot war.
In summary, the American Empire has lost its military advantage. The Ukraine proxy war might very well be America’s last war. Once Russia wins decisively, no Asian country will join the US in a war against China. Pax Americana will be officially dead in the near future.
US Dollar Faces Death by Thousand Cuts
As for the mighty US dollar, it is facing attacks from all directions. Everyone is trying to decouple from the “terrorist dollar” – as the Indian billionaire Uday Kotak called it. The dedollarisation effort has accelerated all over the world since the imposition of draconian sanctions on Russia and theft of hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian FOREX two years ago. The China-Russia bilateral trade is now conducted 90% with local currencies – ruble and yuan.
Overall, more than 50% of all cross-border transactions in China are now occurring in Chinese RMB – and that number was virtually 0% in 2010.
The biggest shock to the petrodollar will come from petroyuan – i.e., when Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members start selling oil and gas for Chinese yuan. The shockwaves from this cannot be overstated.
De-dollarisation is not just for America’s geopolitical rivals. For example, India and ASEAN countries have also embarked on this transformational journey. Not to mention BRICS+ which is working on its own alternative financial system to circumvent the dollar, Euro and the SWIFT exchange.
Dedollarisation is the ultimate democratisation of global finance.
Effects of Dedollarisation
Just like in the stock market or any economic activity, people follow the trend and the jump on the bandwagon. This will be the case with dumping the dollar as well. And the repercussions of dedollarisation will be seismic.
First, the demand for US dollars and US debt will drop sharply. The immediate effect of that will be higher yields for US treasury bonds, which will decimate the bond market in the short term and, permanently, translate to higher interest rates throughout the US economy – including higher credit card and mortgage rates.
Higher mortgage rates will have a very detrimental effect on the real estate sector. Consider that the total worth of U.S. homes is $47 trillion. If the mortgage rates reach 15% -- double the rate today -- the impact on the residential and commercial will be catastrophic. People today forget that, in 1981, the average mortgage rate in the US was 18%.
Average mortgage rates, 1971 to present
Interest rates affect the prices of everything. Thus, the cost of living will go through the roof as well.
Households and corporations, who have loaded up on debt during the years of low interest rates, will face monumental financial problems in the era of higher interest rates.
Also, the US government’s debt payments will be enormous, forcing significant cuts to spending. In 2024, the interest on the US federal government’s debt payments will be just over $1 trillion. What if that payment doubles? Will Congress cut spendings on sensitive items such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid or US military bases abroad? Will the politicians dare to raise taxes and risk a revolt by the voters?
People who think that the US can print its way out of its problems are delusional. That works to some extent only as long as the dollar enjoys its “exorbitant privilege.” When that exclusive status starts disappearing, the US will be forced to swallow austerity, the dreaded word in economics.
US politicians will also be forced to slash foreign aid, the result of which will be diminished diplomatic power for the American Empire. Let’s not forget that many countries vote alongside the US at the UN only because of monetary incentives. When the money dries up, so does friendship in geopolitics.
At some point, Europe will also free itself from the US grip, reform or expel NATO, normalize relations with Russia, and develop a win-win cooperation with China.
The US will also find it harder to attract bright immigrants into academia and the corporate world. American universities will be slashing scholarships, while research institutions in China, Russia, Hong Kong, Singapore etc. become the hub for the smartest minds. Another option for China is also to establish centers of excellence in friendly European nations. So, for example, Serbia and Hungary can open up Chinese universities to bring in the world’s best scientists.
There will also be a reverse brain drain to India. The most successful Indian software engineers and business leaders in the US will be making a beeline for India, creating a renaissance in the software industry. Soon, there will be Indian software companies competing globally with the likes of Oracle and Google.
The chain reaction will be unstoppable – just like how the US became the mecca of innovation after WW2, after centuries of dominance by Europe. Already, China is #1 in the world in patents and top-quality scientific papers; and is the undisputed leader in numerous technologies such as 5G, electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, nuclear power, and many categories of AI.
While the US has some advantage in a handful of fields like semiconductors, China will catch up and surpass the US in the next few years.
And when the US economy weakens, China will propel way ahead. The combination of research, practical ideas, and manufacturing will give China the advantage that the US briefly enjoyed in the 1950s and 1960s. However, unlike America, China will not outsource their production or embrace financial capitalism that destroyed the US economy.
A weak dollar will also reduce the ability of US corporations – especially financial giants like BlackRock – to acquire corporations around the world. In fact, the reverse will happen – i.e., foreign corporations will buy up shares in former US giants. And the fallout will be significant.
For example, imagine Asian countries becoming large shareholders in the parent companies of Facebook, Google, Wall Street Journal, CNN etc. And Asian companies will become major advertisers in Western media as well. Result? The Western media coverage would change dramatically. Suddenly, US media will be forced to be objective and introduce entirely different narratives. Perhaps, history books and Wikipedia will be rewritten in many ways.
Finally, one of the most dangerous aspects of losing the hegemonic power will be the potential revenge from all the countries that the US has oppressed or destroyed over the decades – from Latin America to the Middle East and Asia.
What if powerful countries of the future – Russia, Iran and China – want to impose crippling sanctions on the US? Maybe Russia will tell other countries to stop buying America oil and gas; and China can impose sanctions on iPhones and Tesla because of concerns about spying!
Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Moscow. File photo
© Sputnik / Pavel Byrkin
/ Conclusion
“Americans are the living refutation of the Cartesian axiom, "I think, therefore I am.” Americans do not think, yet they are” – Italian philosopher, Julius Evola.
When the American Empire starts to implode, the reaction of ordinary Americans will be quite violent, since nobody is prepared for the future. Having constantly been told that America is the greatest country, the masses are completely unaware of the economic and geopolitical tsunamis that are on the way. There will be chaos, crime and possibly even a civil war, as Americans look for a scapegoat to explain the downfall of the Empire.
As for others, get ready for an Asian Century. If Europe were smart, we will see a more prosperous Eurasian Century.
--- S.L. Kanthan
