As Lloyd Austin's visit to India concludes, the US Defense Secretary and his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh agreed on a roadmap for defense industry cooperation, that envisages co-development of military platforms and hardware.
It's worth noting that the development comes as the conflict in Ukraine continues to rage on, with the US and NATO having played a major role in flooding Kiev with lethal weapons, in addition to the continued US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific.
Sputnik reached out to S.L. Kanthan, an Indian geopolitical analyst and writer, to find out his opinion on the prospects of the Indo-American partnership in the defense sector and what potential dangers it may hide.
Sputnik: Lloyd Austin and his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh on Monday announced a Road Map for US-India Defense Industrial Cooperation, which is designed to “change the paradigm” for bilateral cooperation between the Indian and US defense industries and give India access to “cutting edge technologies.” What do you think of the deal? In your view, is it advisable for India to seek closer integration with the US military-industrial complex?
Kanthan: The US is enticing India with catchy marketing slogans and a visionary roadmap for long-term and comprehensive defense partnership. The two countries plan to cooperate in co-development and co-production of cutting-edge military platforms.
On the surface, this looks good, since the areas of strategic engagement would cover a wide range of critical sectors such as intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, as well as aircraft engines and munitions.
However, there are always a myriad of gotchas in forming an alliance with the USA. Here are four main issues:
First, this deal means more submission to US diktats. For example, already, the US tries to prevent India from buying oil from Iran and weapons from Russia; and threatens to sanction Indian companies at the drop of a hat. On the contrary, Russia — still India’s #1 military supplier —doesn’t make such imperialist demands.
Second, US military platforms are proprietary and incompatible with Russian systems, which constitute 75% of Indian military’s hardware. For example, most Indian fighter jets and tanks are from Russia. Thus, India needs to meticulously scrutinize the impact of any “paradigm shifts” — as the U.S. puts it — on the Indian military’s operational capability.
Third, American systems are overpriced and sometimes underwhelming in performance. For example, consider the F-35, which the US wants to sell to India in the new roadmap for deepening ties. However, the F-35 fighter jet is a boondoggle with countless glitches and even fatal flaws. On the other hand, Russia’s Su-35 is cheaper and superior in numerous features. Similarly, the US Patriot system is no match for the Russian S-400 missile defense systems.
Fourth, India should be under no illusions about threats to national sovereignty. Since Edward Snowden’s revelations a decade ago, we all know how the US spies on its allies, including the political and business elites. And the spying still goes on blatantly, even in Europe. So, when the US claims it will help India with next-generation telecommunications and surveillance, one must wonder how much eavesdropping the NSA/CIA will be performing in India.
Spying leads to blackmail. Consider how Germany meekly accepted the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipeline by the US. Quite pathetic. The Germans are committing economic and geopolitical suicide to please their colonial master, the United States of America. That sort of vassal future is my biggest fear about India’s embrace of American military and technology.
Looking at the big picture, I would add that Russia needs to sharpen its marketing skills and present inspiring ideas to the Indian military and politicians.
Russia can become a holistic partner for India in not only military but also space, technology, energy, commodities and food.
Russia can also transform into an indispensable geopolitical partner for India. For example, how can Russia help integrate India’s economy with Central Asia and help India resolve the border issues with China and Pakistan? Draw up a development vision of “Moscow to Mumbai.” That sort of a compelling vision of peace and prosperity for Eurasia beats any Raytheon salesman’s pitch.
Sputnik: During his visit to India, Austin publicly took aim at China, accusing Beijing of “bullying and coercion.” Many media outlets framed the US-Indian defense roadmap as a step towards “containing” China. Do you think that India should join the US in trying to “contain” China militarily? What are the potential risks of such an approach?
Kanthan: In my article titled, “India – The Crown Jewel of American Empire,” I describe the extraordinary influence that the US wields in India. For example, the #1 English TV channel in India is CNN! All the crucial economic sectors such as e-commerce, FinTech, 5G, cloud computing etc. are dominated or monopolized by American firms such as Google, Amazon and Walmart. Indian hi-tech startups are typically owned and controlled by investors from the US and its allies.
With such a powerful American control over the cognitive and economic infrastructure, India is at the risk of becoming a geopolitical pawn. Paradoxically, India is a member of organizations such as BRICS and SCO; and foreign minister Jaishankar often talks about the emergence of a multipolar world.
However, a multipolar world won’t be possible if India aligns with the unipolar hegemon and participates in the containment of China.
In 2004, Professor Barnett gave a speech in which he said, “The dominant definition of [the] future of war in [the] Pentagon today is the same one we have had for the last 10 years. And that is: China, Taiwan Straits, 2025.”
Just like how the US planned NATO expansion and the eventual war on Russia long time ago, it has also been planning for the war with China for decades. Furthermore, just like how the US is using others – Ukraine and Europe – to fight Russia, it will use Asian countries to fight China.
Remember that this is how the US became powerful after WW1 and WW2 – by letting others fight and destroy themselves. Divide et impera.
In a speech in 2015, George Friedman – founder of Stratfor, the influential think tank – said, “The primordial interest of the US is to split Russia and Germany, because together they will challenge US hegemony."
One can extrapolate that to Asia and say that the primordial interest of the US is to split China and India. Because, combined, the three billion Indians and Chinese will be the most influential power center in the world.
India and China have thousands of years of combined cultural wisdom; they used to be the world’s #1 and #2 economies for almost 2,000 years; and they both were destroyed by Western colonialism. Given all that, imagine how ridiculous it would be if they fall for a simple divide-and-rule strategy of the imperialists.
I have voiced some pragmatic ideas on how India and China can resolve the border conflicts. There are endless opportunities for cooperation and win-win engagement between India and China. And there is also one guaranteed way to destroy one another and the Asian Century -- war.
Let’s see, which path the two civilizations choose.
Sputnik: Ahead of Modi’s upcoming visit to the United States, the White House has justified its previous criticism of the Modi gov’t by saying that "you can do that with friends; you’re supposed to do that with friends — you never shy away from expressing concerns that we might have with anyone around the world." Should India be wary of US “democracy promotion” efforts? Why or why not?
Kanthan: At the outset, India’s democracy has lots of problems with free speech, free press, rule of law, transparency, accountability and so on. However, the US is not the ideal country to preach.
Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize winner and former Chief Economist of the World Bank once wrote that the US is “of the 1%, for the 1% and by the 1%.” And he is right. The USA is not a democracy. It’s better described as an oligarchy, plutocracy or corporatocracy.
Thus, it’s an amazing testament to American propaganda skills that US leaders can constantly talk about freedom and democracy. The rulers of America want global domination, not democracy and freedom. There are only a handful of countries around the world which the American Empire doesn’t control.
The US has supported brutal dictators and genocidal maniacs whenever it suits American “interests.” During the Cold War, the US armed and funded dictators worldwide – for example: in Chile, Brazil, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan (!) and countries in Africa and the Middle East. Even now, the US arms 70% of all undemocratic countries in the world.
The USA cares about the USA. If you want to be a pro-American dictator, okay, fine, no problem. If you want to have a fake democracy where you choose from candidates who are all pro-USA, then have a great election and enjoy democracy!
Here is the rule of thumb in geopolitics: Whenever the US gets excited about democracy, it just means that the US is trying to execute a regime change through color revolutions, sanctions, civil wars, or proxy wars.
Regarding India, I don’t think the US is seeking regime change, since Modi is quite pro-business and pro-West. Turning up some heat on Modi is just the American strategy to gain the upper hand in bargaining. There are still some Indian economic sectors such as banking that US corporations would like to see privatized. Also, the US would like India to buy more American weapons, jump on the anti-China bandwagon, and reject the BRICS currency.
India should improve its democratic system not to please the USA, but to make India better.
SL Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst and writer based out of Bangalore, India. Follow him on Twitter: @Kanthan2030 and Substack: slkanthan.substack.com