A former officer in India’s Directorate of Military Intelligence has told Sputnik that “worsening” of tensions between Beijing and Washington in the South China Sea carry the potential to spill over into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and affect the regional dynamics in the South Asian region.
“Most of South Asia (with the exception of Pakistan) and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are now part of the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM),” underlined Colonel (Retd.) R. Hariharan, who oversaw the Indian Army’s intelligence operations across South Asia.
Hariharan, who was also part of the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka in the 1980s, said that a greater India-US strategic convergence under the Quad framework would “inevitably raise concerns” among Bangladesh and Myanmar.
“And greater coordination and cooperation between their navies means greater the concern particularly when these smaller powers (Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka) are trying to balance their relationship with China's increasing footprint in South Asia,” the Army veteran remarked.
With the exception of India and Bhutan, all the other South Asian nations are part of Beijing-backed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing also ranks among the top two biggest trading partners of all South Asian nations, including India’s.
Hariharan cautioned that since New Delhi was the only Quad member which shared a “long border” with Beijing, thus making it a “key partner” in American strategic calculations to compete with China.
New Delhi and Beijing are involved in a military standoff in the eastern Ladakh region. Troops from both sides clashed at the Galwan Valley region in 2020, resulting in 20 Indian and five Chinese fatalities.
India has maintained that peace and tranquillity at the border are the basis of its overall bilateral relations with China.
Meanwhile, Washington has made no secret about its strategic motive to maintain its global pre-eminence with the help of a network of allies and partners amid Beijing’s growing economic and political clout.
The Biden administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), released last year, described Beijing as the “most consequential” global challenger to the US.
‘Increasing Coordination’ Between Indian and US Navy
The military intelligence expert predicted that there would be an “increasing level of coordination” between the Indian and US Navies in the coming months.
“The US policy on India is a complex one conditioned by its strategic perceptions,” Hariharan commented.
He noted that the US and India have now signed all the four “foundational pacts” which Washington asks a country to do in order to supply it with advanced military technology.
These pacts are:
General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA);
Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA);
Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA);
Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).
Hariharan explained that as per LEMOA, Washington could use the Indian naval bases for repair and maintenance.
“The COMCASA provides for secure communication between the two. But, the most important is the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) signed in 2020, which allows sharing of geospatial information and improve operational efficiency of US equipment used by India,” the Army veteran said as he outlined the significance of the foundational agreements.
New Delhi and Washington have also concluded the ‘Master Ship Repair Agreement’ to potentially make India a “hub for maintenance and repair for forward deployed US Navy assets”.
Hariharan said that US has designated New Delhi as a “major defense partner” and was treating it “on par” with a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally.
New Delhi has rejected American overtures on being part of a ‘NATO Plus’ arrangement, with Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stating that a ‘NATO template’ doesn’t apply to India.