As rice export prices continue to augment to their highest levels in eleven years, reports have indicated that several countries in Asia and Africa could face shortages this year.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, the price of grains and other crops has been increasing due to Western sanctions on the export of Russian fertilizers, thereby threatening global food security.
G.V. Ramanjaneyulu, executive director at India's Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, spoke with Sputnik and explained that there are many reasons behind the rise in the price of rice, including the increase in the cost of fertilizers, climate change, and countries not wanting to grow rice due to its harmful effect on the environment.
“Overall, the cost of rice production has gone up,” the expert said.
“One of the key reasons why prices are going up is rice cultivation across the globe is going down. Many countries have cut down the production of rice because of its impact on the environment. Rice requires more water and energy, so many countries are moving away. Rice is a water-intensive crop,” Dr Ramanjaneyulu explained.
“However, nothing the same is happening in India. Rice cultivation is high in India, at the same it is the world’s most populated country and rice is a staple food in more than 90% of Indian kitchens,” Ramanjaneyulu shared.
India exported nearly 56 million tonnes of rice in 2022, accounting for more than 40 percent of global rice exports. The export price has increased in India and other top global producers including Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Weather Phenomena
Meanwhile, erratic weather patterns like El Nino also impact crop production.
“El Nino is impacting rice output in almost all producing countries," Nitin Gupta, vice president of Olam India's rice business, told Reuters.
Global rice inventories are set to drop to a six-year low of 170.2 million tonnes by the end of 2023/24, as stocks fall in top producers China and India, the US Department of Agriculture has said, after rising demand in recent years.
In terms of export, India will witness a decline in the fiscal year 2024 (FY24) after the increased 20% export duty on non-basmati varieties is expected to start hitting home from April onward, predicted Vinod Kaul, executive director of the All India Rice Exporters Association.
In FY23, India exported 17.79 million tonnes (MT) of non-basmati rice compared with 17.3 MT in FY22, while broken rice exports were 23% lower at 3 MT because of a ban on shipments imposed to keep domestic prices down.