Pakistan, like many nations in the Global South, would be "very careful in cultivating a relationship with Ukraine that will adversely affect their interaction with Russia", a Pakistani expert has told Sputnik.
"Pakistan has maintained a degree of non-partisanship in this war, and I think Pakistan will continue to do that. It will not become a partner of Ukraine," stated Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based political and defence analyst.
The Pakistani expert further said that Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit to Islamabad was aimed at winning over Pakistan's support at the UN and other multilateral fora.
"I don't think Pakistan's policy is going to change from what it has been in this war up to now," Rizvi said.
Qamar Agha, a veteran Indian defense expert, argued that support from the West, particularly the US, remained “critical” for Pakistan in order to sustain its economic bailout, which has been facilitated by the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“Pakistan has faced pushback from the US for trying to develop close relations with Russia. Till last year, it seemed to have completely aligned itself with its ‘iron brother’ China and even wanted to develop closer relations with Russia, as demonstrated by ex-PM Imran Khan’s visit to Moscow last February,” Agha stated.
But the expert reckoned that Islamabad’s ongoing economic crisis is forcing the Shehbaz Sharif government to “align” its priorities with the US, which include supporting Kiev.
“The visit (by the Ukrainian foreign minister) suggests that Pakistan will bat for American interests, which it did for most part of the War on Terror,” Agha said, noting the country's status as a 'major non-NATO ally' during US-led intervention in Afghanistan.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, it has invested in diplomatic efforts to win the support of the countries of the Global South in its ongoing conflict with Russia. Most of the developing states, including India and China, have refused to side with the West at the UN and even bolstered their economic ties with Moscow.
Pakistan Continues to Face Economic Woes, IMF Says
The IMF approved a standby arrangement of $3 billion for Islamabad on July 12 to support the government’s “economic stabilization” plan, according to a statement by the agency.
The IMF has warned that despite efforts to resurrect Pakistan’s economy, the country continues to face high inflationary pressure, depleting forex reserves, amid “acute external fiscal pressure” and a low growth outlook.
Like many other countries in the Global South, Pakistan’s economy was adversely affected by the COVID pandemic and the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis.
The situation was further exacerbated by the devastating floods last year, which caused billions of dollars in economic damage, according to the UN.
Khan has previously claimed that he was ousted from power last April in a parliamentary no-confidence vote which was moved by the then-leader of the opposition, incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, at the behest of the US.
The former PM claimed at the time that Washington was unhappy with his visit to Moscow last February, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The current PM Sharif has rejected Khan’s charges. In fact, Islamabad received its second shipment of Russian crude last month under a deal agreed between the two governments in April.
Sharif described the Russian crude deliveries as a “step towards “prosperity, economic growth, and energy security and affordability”.
Agha said that it was up to Moscow now to decide how it should deal with Islamabad.
“Russia has recently begun supplying crude oil to Pakistan, but it is now up to Moscow to decide how it should carry out its dealings with an unreliable country like Pakistan,” the Indian expert remarked.
For his part, Rizvi maintained that Pakistan would choose to remain "neutral" in the Ukraine conflict, rather than siding with Kiev.
"This is an attempt on the part of Ukraine to somehow win over Pakistan. But as I said, the Pakistani stakes are such that they are not going to change their policy and alienate Russia on this Ukraine question. Pakistan will argue for a peaceful settlement of the dispute or war rather than side with Ukraine," the Pakistani expert suggested.
Reports of Pakistan-US Defense Cooperation
As reported by the Indian daily The Economic Times, Kuleba’s visit to Pakistan comes as Islamabad gets ready to deliver another consignment of military supplies to Ukraine.
The Indian media report claims that Pakistan has been using defense suppliers in third nations to “channel” military supplies to Ukraine. It further claimed that the UK has been using an airbase in Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistani military, as a “key base” to transport military equipment to Ukraine.
The claims are yet to be officially corroborated by either of the governments.
Seshadri Vasan, an Indian Navy veteran and the director-general of think tank Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S), said that Islamabad was probably using the Ukraine’s “need for weapons” to bolster its own defense industry as the South Asian nation faced an “economic meltdown.”
The US Congress has provided more than $75 billion in humanitarian, financial, and military support to Ukraine since last February, according to a German think tank, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
The Biden administration has said that it would support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for more weapons’ supplies, most recently air defense systems, which has provoked the ire of some NATO allies.
Vasan reckoned that Ukraine was now looking for weapons in Pakistan, which he said has “leftover” supplies of both American and Russian-made weapons and ammunition.
“Pakistan is guided by its economic priorities. It probably has factored in the Russian response to closer engagement with Ukraine and could have taken in loop other energy suppliers in the Middle East in case Russia decides to stop its energy supplies,” the expert remarked.
Vasan also said that Pakistan would like to keep its ties with Ukraine a low-key affair.
“If Russia thinks that Pakistan is supporting Ukraine’s war effort, then Moscow will have to take a call on the future course of action,” the Navy veteran stated.
Significantly, Islamabad has steered clear of making a reference to defense cooperation with Ukraine it its official statement on Kuleba’s visit.