Five States' Poll Results to Decide Fate of I.N.D.I.A: Expert

As the 2024 General elections draw closer, political activities in India are intensifying. Parties are now actively devising their strategies to gain an advantage over their rivals.

As part of the poll strategy, the political parties are contemplating forming an alliance. However, there were already two major alliances in India's political arena – United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

However, well before the 2024 Parliamentary elections, the Congress party joined forces with 27 other like-minded political parties to establish a new alliance, which they named: The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A).

The opposition bloc, which was recently formed, consists of several political parties that were previously part of the UPA. In addition, it has also welcomed new members such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Janata Dal United (JDU), Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) and others.

The parties within the I.N.D.I.A bloc have shown unity and dedication to a common goal but recently some cracks seems to have recently emerged in the group.

Political expert Shrikant Pandey while talking to Sputnik India shed light on the future of the alliance, reasons why it could split and is there any politician who can save the alliance from splitting.

What Awaits I.N.D.I.A Bloc's Fate?

The political expert told Sputnik India that the future of the newly-formed opposition bloc depends on the results of the assembly elections in five states.

“All the political parties which are part of this alliance especially Congress are waiting for the results,” Pandey stated.

Explaining the reason behind wait and watch strategy of the political parties, the political expert said that everyone wants to be in a dominant position in the alliance and have better negotiation powers.

BJP rallies across Karnataka

“If Congress is able to perform better in the assembly polls in five states, it will have dominance over the allies and will be in a position to run the alliance on its terms and conditions but if it doesn’t happen it will have to listen to partners,” he said.

However, he opined that I.N.D.I.A bloc is not a long-term alliance and it will split either before 2024 General elections or after that.

Reasons Behind Possible I.N.D.I.A Bloc Rift

Citing the reasons behind the split of the opposition bloc, Pandey stated that the differences have already started to emerge as Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav while addressing a poll rally in Madhya Pradesh accused Congress of being a “cunning” party and urged people not to vote for it.

“Similarly, AAP national convenor and Delhi State Chief Arvind Kejriwal did a poll rally in Chhattisgarh, slamm[ing] the Congress-led state government and announced 10 guarantees for the state,” Pandey said.

He further said that "if the alliance partners keep on slamming each other at state level how can they stay united at [the] national level and moreover, people of the country are not naive, they analyse everything and vote accordingly."

Apart from this, Bihar State Chief and Janata Dal United (JDU) chief Nitish Kumar has also blamed Congress for lack of any progress in preparations for the 2024 Parliamentary elections.

“Congress wants to have a better say during the next meeting of the bloc and this is the reason it is waiting for the results of the state assembly polls. Meanwhile, the regional parties don’t want Congress to be in [the] dominant position because it will diminish their value in the bloc,” Pandey stated while naming the reasons behind the bloc's emerging differences.

Can I.N.D.I.A Challenge BJP?

The primary objective of forming the I.N.D.I.A bloc was to prevent the BJP from reclaiming power in the 2024 general elections. However, this outcome appears increasingly probable due to the growing discord within the alliance.

“It seems that the purpose of the I.N.D.I.A bloc will fail because there is a lot of infighting. In order to take on [the] BJP in 2024 national elections, it is important for the opposition to remain intact, but with differences among them there would hardly be any challenge for [the] BJP from this alliance,” Pandey remarked.

Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi

He expressed his view that it would actually benefit the BJP, as the saffron party will be able to gain votes that would be divided among the states.

“If the members of the I.N.D.I.A bloc will be contesting in states there will be a split in votes which will benefit the BJP. Also, the BJP will miss no opportunity to highlight differences between the members of the I.N.D.I.A bloc. The party has already started targeting it by saying that all the corrupt parties have joined hands,” Pandey stated.

Any Saviour in Sight for I.N.D.I.A Bloc?

Apparently, politicians like Nitish Kumar, Sharad Pawar played a significant role in uniting like-minded opposition parties to form the new opposition bloc. However, due to Kumar's dissatisfaction with the delaying tactics of the Congress, it appears that he will now take a less proactive stance.

Similarly, Pawar who is already facing a challenge from his nephew Ajit Pawar as he broke the party with several legislators and joined the government in Maharashtra is also tight-lipped.

Talking about Kumar and Pawar, the political expert said that Kumar’s prospects as the face of the opposition bloc have diminished after his bizzare comments on girls’ education while Pawar is himself struggling with the defection in his party therefore it is likely to happen that these two will take a lead now.

When asked that whether Congress parliamentarian Rahul Gandhi could keep the bloc united, Pandey said: “He can be the face of the alliance but I really have doubts that he will be able to keep the flock together.”

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