Can Modi's Magic Lead BJP to a 2024 Election Win in Southern India?

With only a few months left to the 2024 Indian parliamentary polls, all parties are in full swing to win over voters.

The federally-ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already started campaigning in various states, while the main opposition party Congress has also planned to kick-off a “Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra” (Unite India Justice March) on January 14.

The BJP is pulling out all the stops to gain support from every corner of the country. In this context, the party and its leadership are campaigning vigorously in the southern part of the country where it doesn’t enjoy much backing.

In 2014, the saffron party only won 22 out of 130 seats in South India. Its tally increased to 30 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Tamil Nadu and Kerala states, where he laid the foundation stones for several development projects worth $2.3 billion (INR 200 billion) and addressed a gathering of 200,000 women.

Political expert Vinod Shukla told Sputnik India that the party’s plans are not limited to the 2024 general elections but are more long-term.

BJP’s Strategy for South India

Shukla told Sputnik India that it is an error to see the BJP's efforts in southern India as being focused around Modi.

“The outreach in the southern part of the country is the collective effort of the party and it has not started just now. It has been going on since party president J.P. Nadda visited Kerala in September 2022 and met Christian religious leaders, especially those who don’t speak against the Hindu faith,” Shukla stated.

“The BJP’s efforts in the southern states should not be seen just for 2024 elections rather it is making its ground for future polls,” Shukla added.

Sharing his views about Tamil Nadu state, the political expert said that Federal Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah has taken charge of the state and has given a free hand to the party’s state unit chief K. Annamalai.

“Apart from this, the party is also trying to attract Tamil voters through Kashi Tamil Samagam [regional cultural event]. The first edition of Kashi Tamil Samagam was organized from November 1 to December 16, 2022, while the second edition was held from December 17-30, 2023,” he said.

He opined that all these efforts of the party will be visible in the upcoming elections, however, it is yet to be seen whether the party will be able to better its tally in the region. He did, however, project a drastic improvement in the BJP's voter share there.

In Karnataka state, the expert argued that the saffron party is likely to sweep the 2024 general elections, despite facing defeat in the state assembly elections.

“In the previous state assembly elections held in 2018, the BJP faced defeat but won 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats while its ally bagged one. Meanwhile, Congress and Janata Dal Secular [parties] were able to get the other two seats,” Shukla stated.

He further projected that the BJP is likely to win the Lok Sabha polls this time round, as the Janata Dal Secular is now in its alliance. For its part, he expected that Congress might not be able to win even a single seat due to voter polarization.

In Telangana state, there might not be much gain for the BJP, but it might perform better than on the previous occasion, he argued, while in Andhra Pradesh state the party is "not interested," he said.

Will Modi's Magic Work in the South?

Modi is still the biggest factor for the BJP in all the elections, be it assembly polls or Lok Sabha polls, Shukla said.

“Modi’s visit to the southern states will surely have an impact on the 2024 elections as it will add to the BJP-led welfare schemes which have benefitted the people across the country,” the political expert opined.

He also speculated that several senior members of the party might contest the polls from some of the constituencies of the southern states.

“Not only senior members but some of the current federal ministers and even some governors might also be asked to contest the polls [in southern areas]. There were even some specific media reports that said Prime Minister Modi himself might contest the 2024 polls from Ramanathapuram in Tamil Nadu [state],” Shukla stated.

With all these strategies in place, the saffron party will be eyeing a triumph in the southern part of the country, potentially bringing it a larger national mandate than it currently has.

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