India-Maldives Row is Part of Battle for Influence in Indian Ocean: Expert

India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Sunday that New Delhi and Male were trying to find a "mutually acceptable solution" to enable operation of Indian aviation platforms engaged in humanitarian and medical evacuation services in the Maldives.

However, a statement from the Maldivian Foreign Ministry said that both the sides "agreed to fast-track the withdrawal of Indian military personnel" from the nation, a longstanding demand of President Mohamed Muizzu.

Addressing a press conference at the presidential palace on Saturday, Abdullah Nazim Ibrahim, the Principal Secretary to President Muizzu on Public Policy disclosed that more than 75 Indian troops had been asked to leave the country by 15 March.

Muizzu addressed a press conference at Male's Velana International Airport upon his return from a state-visit to China the same day. "The Indian Ocean also belongs to all countries situated in it...We aren’t in anyone’s backyard. We are an independent and sovereign state,” Muizzu said in his remarks which Maldivian media claim were directed at New Delhi.

Sputnik India spoke to experts to understand the fallout, bilateral as well as geopolitically, of Muizzu's demands vis-a-vis India.

Would Indian Aviation Platforms Continue to Remain Operational?

New Delhi gifted two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) to the Maldives in 2010 and 2015. In 2020, the Indian Navy also gifted a Dornier Maritime Surveillance Aircraft to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF).

According to New Delhi, these Indian-gifted assets are involved in carrying out air surveillance in Maldives' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), medical evacuation as well as assisting in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations.

Air Marshal M Matheswaran, an Indian Air Force (IAF) Veteran and the founder of The Peninsula Foundation (TPF), told Sputnik India that aviation platforms gifted by India to the Maldives had become "properties" of the Maldivian government.

"There is not much that could be done in that regards," the ex-IAF pilot stated.

Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a distinguished fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) told Sputnik that a "mutually acceptable solution" was the only way out amid ostensible differences between the two capitals.

India's Economic Assistance to the Maldives

New Delhi emerged as the biggest source of tourists for the Maldives in 2022. It has been the biggest developmental and capacity-building partner of the Maldives. New Delhi extended a $1.5 billion financial assistance package to Male for projects relating to infrastructure, water and sanitation and healthcare in 2017.

However, Muizzu has made it clear that he wants to shed reliance on any single country.

Muizzu announced at his airport conference that he would end Maldives' "dependence on one country for imported staple foods such as rice, sugar, and flour".

The President also announced that the government-backed healthcare insurance scheme, Aasandha, had been expanded to ensure that Maldivian patients could avail medical coverage in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Thailand. Currently, India and Sri Lanka are the preferred destination for Maldivian patients.

Muizzu said that a new hospital would be buildt with Beijing's help and that "Chinese assistance" would help in ensuring healthcare and laboratory facilities across major islands.

"India is the largest provider of developmental assistance to Maldives, in line with her non-reciprocal Neighbourhood First Policy. India has also maintained a First-responder policy to any crisis in the Maldives. India's efforts are widely recognised by ordinary Maldivian, let alone the political dispensation," Trigunayat explained.

The Ambassador added that Indian tourists' "affection" for the Maldives have contributed to Maldives's prosperity, given that tourism revenues contribute to nearly 70% of Maldivian GDP, a sentiment shared by many members of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).

Matheswaran said that Male would obviously lose a "large part of its tourism revenues" if Indian tourists started to boycott the Indian Ocean destination owing to ongoing political differences.

"However, one also needs to take a realistic view of the situation. For decades, Maldives has been a sought-after international tourist destination," he reckoned.

The Indian expert noted that Muizzu has already invited Chinese tourists to re-claim their position as the top source of tourists to the Maldives.

Indian Ocean Geopolitics

Trigunayat said that recent developments in the Maldives signify an intensifying Sino-India competition in the Indian Ocean.

"Diplomacy is not one way street and the Sino-Indian regional contestation is a reality. It will have to be dealt with diplomatically," the Ambassador stated.

Matheswaran agreed with the assessment.

"There is also an interplay for domestic politics and geopolitics as the Maldivian government wants to make strong statement indicating an independent position. While that shouldn't mean that they should succumb to Chinese influence, but that's how geopolitics works," the expert concluded.

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