India Understands Vital Russian Interests at Stake in Ukraine

India very well understands that there are vital interests for Russia in the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine and it would continue to espouse a neutral stance on the issue in spite of western pressure, a foreign policy expert has told Sputnik India.

Zorawar Daulet Singh, a foreign policy expert and author, remarked that western attempts to "shame, cajole or pressurise India to alter its position have all failed".

He said that mediating the end of the conflict for India won't be an easy affair, especially because of the Western powers which seem "ideologically committed to an unending confrontation".

"India has taken a consistent position of neutrality while publicly suggesting the virtues of a peaceful settlement," said Singh, underscoring New Delhi's position on the Ukraine conflict.

The geopolitical expert remarked that the US and the West would like India to "support the present international order", including its stance on Ukraine.

"But as Foreign Minister Jaishankar remarked, "it is not just about strengthening the international order, but also about changing this order. Who shapes it and on what basis? The international order must evolve further'", Singh remarked, citing Jaishankar's statement from his recent interview with German publication Handelsblatt.

Russian Victory in Avdeyevka a 'Turning Point'

Singh described Russia's recent military victory in Avdeyevka on the Donbass front as a "turning point" of the conflict.

"So far, Russia’s military performance has not only managed to blunt last summer’s offensive it is now poised to decisively push the Ukrainian military further on the back foot by dislodging it from forward positions in the east. Although NATO might still continue to pump money and arms into the conflict, the capacity to reverse the course of this war looks impossible," the Indian expert asserted.

Pravin Sawhney, a strategic affairs expert and author, told Sputnik India that the ball in the Ukraine conflict was in Russia's court since it was the winning party.

He said that it was up to Russia now as to at what stage and on what conditions it would agree to a ceasefire.

“The western countries seem to have finally come to terms with the fact that Russia cannot be beaten in Ukraine. Ukraine doesn't have manpower, artillery, air power or ammunition for that matter. Even if the $95 billion US bill aimed at arming Ukraine among others gets cleared by the US Congress, that won't be able to fix crucial issues such as lack of manpower for Ukraine," Sawhney explained.

Sawhney stated that the US and the NATO would eventually have to face a loss of face in Ukraine.

"For the West, the global credibility of NATO is at stake in Ukraine. The future of the trans-Atlantic alliance is at stake. A loss in Ukraine would all but put an end to NATO's ambition of pivoting towards Asia-Pacific to counter China, noting that the NATO's 'Strategic Concept' declared China as a security challenge for the first time in the grouping's history in 2022," the Indian author said.

"The US has gotten into a wrong war and now it seems to be finding it difficult to extract itself from it without the risk of loss of face and credibility," he added.

‘Russia is an Important Partner for India’

Sawhney stated that the West has failed to understand that the stakes for New Delhi in its relationship with Russia were simply too high.

He listed that not only was Russia India’s top defence and oil supplier at present, but it was also a provider of crucial technologies, including in the civil nuclear domain.

“Importantly, Russia is the only country which could ensure that tensions between India and China don't escalate to the point of conflict, which is on account of Moscow's strategic and economic ties with both the countries,” Sawhney reckoned.

He added that Russia understood the significance of maintaining its special and privileged strategic partnership with New Delhi, the world’s fastest growing major economy.

“Since the Ukraine conflict, Russia has pivoted more towards Asia than it is towards Europe,” Sawhney stressed.

At the same time, the expert noted that New Delhi’s foreign policy was also aimed at strengthening ties with the western powers.

“India is playing a balancing act knowing very well its geography and the changing geopolitical realities. It has been seeking to maintain its close ties with Russia, while at the same time seeking to strengthen ties with the US,” Sawhney concluded.

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