Time for South Asia to Seize Golden Opportunity As US Hegemony Dies

South Asian countries are at a pivotal moment to assert greater independence in pursuing their foreign policy objectives without succumbing to undue pressure from the United States, former Ambassador Srikumar Menon told Sputnik India.

In an effort to reduce their reliance on the US, these nations—guided by their unique interests—are likely to reassess, recalibrate, and potentially enhance their existing relationships with Russia, China, and other suitable partners, the former envoy said.

India has skilfully balanced its relationships with Russia and China, even as a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) by adopting a nuanced approach and avoiding direct confrontation or criticism of either country. The diplomat stated that while the Sino-Indian relationship has been strained by longstanding border disputes, both countries are committed to maintaining peace along the Line of Actual Control (LoC) while in pursuit of strengthening their robust economic ties, which boast an annual bilateral trade turnover of $118.4 billion in fiscal year 2024.

"While India has successfully navigated these complex waters with relative ease, Pakistan, which has historically aligned itself more overtly with the US to secure defence deals and aid (albeit with limited success), now faces the need to maintain a delicate balance in its relationships with China, Russia, and the US, driven by the realities of realpolitik," Menon said.

India has further solidified its strategic partnership with the United States, particularly in the realms of defence and security cooperation. At the same time, India and Russia have cultivated a growing energy partnership. Historically, Russia has been a key supplier of crude oil and natural gas to India and continues to be one of its largest defence partners, he stressed.

India adopts a "mix-and-match" foreign policy, prioritising both its national interests and the pursuit of global welfare, former Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a geopolitical expert, told Sputnik India. The United States is regarded as India's Global Comprehensive Strategic Partner, while Russia holds the status of a Special and Privileged Strategic Partner.

"India has consistently championed the cause of Global South countries, hosting three Voice of Global South Summits since its G20 Presidency to address and remedy the developmental challenges," the former diplomat said. "As for Pakistan, its economy is in terrible shape, making IMF loans and other funding crucial for its survival. Consequently, Pakistan would prefer to keep the USA on its side while remaining closely aligned with China, its ironclad friend."

He expressed that some factors would likely place Pakistan at a significant disadvantage with the Trump administration and the West as a whole.

In light of the current paradigm shift between US and the European Union (EU), as well as the weakening of the US-backed world order and its geopolitical and economic implications, Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan, Executive Director at the Centre for South Asia & International Studies (CSAIS), emphasised to Sputnik India the urgent need for regional countries to reevaluate, revise, and prioritise their foreign policy strategies.

He has called for a concerted effort toward greater regional socio-economic integration, enhanced connectivity, improved political understanding, and, above all, regional peace and stability. The expert noted the shifting focus from Washington to Moscow could foster more sustainable relations.

"Now is an ideal time to peacefully pursue the 'Look East' policy to achieve the desired goals of economic stability and sustainability, secure connectivity, and project mutually beneficial propositions," Dr Hassan Khan suggested. "Regional disputes should be resolved through dialogue, diplomacy, and development. It is also crucial to work collectively to further strengthen organisations like BRICS and the SCO, striving toward a multipolar world."

The shift in the US foreign policy certainly will push South Asia to look inward and see what they have to offer considering that Trump 2.0 is more transactional, Dr Rishi Gupta, an assistant director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Sputnik India.

"While India seems more evolved with the new administration, others will have to explore what they bring to the table for the US. Aid from US to countries like Pakistan, Nepal or Bangladesh will be subject to American national interests. There are no free lunches any more. India has demonstrated greater preparedness in engaging with all parties through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. India has markets, and the capacity to manufacture and export," Dr Gupta noted.

He added that India's internal capacity and capability to contribute to the global supply chains make it an attractive destination for all parties.

Regarding Pakistan, it will have to look beyond just being perceived as a geostrategic entity in the region, Gupta suggested. Afghanistan, however, is a done deal for the US, so any new developments that align with American interests would be welcomed. That said, Pakistan’s current political mess presents an opportunity for Trump's transactional approach, he concluded.

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