"Production volume at the end of 2025 will remain at the 2024 level, and we expect the current level of 515 million tonnes to be maintained until 2027. Export volume will also remain at the 2024 level," the analytical report said.
According to Kasatkin Consulting's calculations, oil production will remain at last year's level of 10.3 million barrels per day or approximately 515 million tonnes per year and may grow by 0.97% in 2026. This level is expected to be maintained until 2027.
As per the analysts' forecasts, oil exports from Russia will remain at 4.8 million barrels per day or approximately 240 million tonnes per year until 2027.
Negative market conditions will not lead to a decline in production, analysts at Kasatkin Consulting report, despite the deterioration in financial results, oil companies will maintain their investment in production.
At the end of the year, oil companies' revenues in dollars will decline by 10%, and in rubles by 13%. At the same time, investments in exploration and production in 2025, denominated in dollars, will grow by 7%, and in rubles by negative 3.5% (within the limits of inflation), the analytical report also said.
The average cost of production will increase from $8 per barrel in 2024 to almost $11 per barrel for the period from 2025 to 2027.
Oil production in Russia fell by 2.6% last year to 516 million tonnes, while exports rose by 2.4% to 240 million tonnes, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in January.