In his latest trip to France, Modi was received at the airport by the French Prime Minister; and was later conferred the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor, France's highest civilian and military award. At the Bastille Day parade, Indian soldiers and fighter jets participated, affirming twenty-five years of strategic relationship between the two nations. Macron didn’t hold back on flattery when he claimed that India is a “giant in world history.”
What does this all mean? Indeed, there are profound implications – Modi’s trips to the US and France are about larger geopolitical great games that involve the collective West, Russia, Ukraine war, and China. Let’s analyze.
Weapons and Indo-Pacific Strategy
The interesting and consequential fact about the deals signed in Paris is that they were primarily about arms sales. It may be surprising to some that France is the second largest supplier – the first being Russia – of military weapons to India.
Now, Modi has agreed to buy 26 new French Dassault Rafale fighter jets for Indian navy and 3 submarines for $10 billion. Furthermore, French weapons manufacturer Safran will work with Indian HAL to co-produce engines for combat helicopters.
India has relied on French fighter jets for four decades now, although the vast majority of Indian air force’s fighter jets are Russian. In 2015 – during Modi’s first term – India bought 36 Rafale jets for $9 billion. In the 1980s, India bought France’s Mirage jets, which still comprise two squadrons of the Indian air force.
As for the three new Scorpene submarines, they will have conventional diesel-powered engines and will be co-produced by Indian MDL and French Naval group. In 2005, India bought six of these submarines. However, just like the American deal with the GE jet engines, France’s technology transfer is limited in scope to ensure that India cannot build its own submarines.
There is also one more aspect that the French and American deals share: focus on navy. The US-India defense deal involved the purchase of $3 billion worth of armed MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones, which are maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft.
So, why so much emphasis on ocean when India has never faced any threats in that direction? The answer is found in the phrase “free and open Indo-Pacific,” which is a euphemism for containment of China. The newly released strategic paper, “India-France Indo-Pacific Roadmap,” stresses India’s own string of pearls of naval influence linking the UAE, Madagascar, Seychelles and Singapore.
In an interview, Modi said, “Beyond the Indian Ocean Region, we will increasingly coordinate and cooperate in the Pacific Region, as well. Our partnership will also include the EU, which has its own Indo-Pacific strategy.
Thus, connecting the dots, one could suspect that the West is grooming India to participate in a war in South China Sea in the future.
France should really have no business in the Pacific Ocean, but there are still some French territories – vestiges of colonialism – in the South Pacific Ocean. The largest of them, French Polynesia, is 12,000 km away from China, but that’s good enough of a reason for France to get involved in the anti-China alliance.
By the way, this region used to be known as “Asia Pacific” until 2017, when the term “Indo-Pacific” was adopted and popularized by the Trump administration to flatter India and make the latter a stakeholder in the collective West’s strategy against China. That’s when the QUAD was formed – an alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and India – and was suspected to be “Asia’s NATO,” although it didn’t quite turn out that way.
War with China
The American Empire is very nervous about its unipolar hegemony. Hence the current proxy war with Russia and the plans for a war with China in the near future. If Russia and China can be subjugated, the American full-spectrum dominance of the world will be complete. To that end, US politicians to military generals and think tanks to social media influencers are beating the drums of war.
An American four-star general, Mike Minihan, recently sent a memo predicting that a war with China will happen by 2025. In a recent article, Elbridge Colby – former Pentagon official and author of “The Strategy of Denial” – wrote that war with China should be America’s highest priority. Kyle Bass, the virulently anti-China hedge fund manager, gave a sensational speech at the Hudson Institute on the China threat, claiming that Chinese President Xi Jinping will invade Taiwan soon.
Why so much Sinophobia? Well, China will be the world’s #1 economy soon – Goldman Sachs says it will happen by 2035; I think it will happen by 2030 – which explains the American urgency to start a war.
However, the US is too cowardly to attack China on its own. (This is similar to how the US is waging a proxy war on Russia through Ukraine and Europe). Moreover, war simulations by the US military shows that China will win the war in South China Sea.
In 1900, when the Chinese people started a revolution against the colonial powers, the West created an alliance of eight nations to suppress the Boxer Rebellion. However, that same China is now vastly more powerful. Ergo, the US is trying to put together a formidable anti-China coalition that includes Asian powers as well as Europe. Needless to say, this will be practically World War III, which could turn into a nuclear Armageddon.
The delusion of American imperialists would be laughable if it were not so dangerous. Its proxy war on Russia is failing miserably, but Washington elites are already planning the war against China – and there is even saber-rattling about a war with Iran.
Ukraine War: Devastating Loss for the West
The Ukraine reality show is over. This is why Zelensky pleaded for immediate NATO membership. However, he forgot the original deal: Ukraine must fight Russia to the last Ukrainian man. US and NATO will supply weapons, money, intelligence, strategy, and propaganda, but the war had to be waged by Ukrainians.
However, most of the NATO-trained Ukrainian soldiers are already dead, after the crushing losses in Mariupol and Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military is now literally kidnapping civilians and sending them into the battlefield after merely a few days of training.
In the collective West, munitions stockpiles are dwindling, since financial capitalism has gutted Western manufacturing base over the last three decades. The Ukraine war has depleted nearly half of America’s inventory of Javelins and Stingers; and boosting production of artillery ammunition will take years. Western bankers can print money but not weapons.
American propaganda gloated for a year that Russia was running out of missiles, drones, tanks, ammunition, soldiers, semiconductor chips and so on. All those are now true about Ukraine.
Just like how the US left Afghanistan in disarray only to start a war with Russia, Americans are planning on abandoning Ukraine to start a war with China. And the media is already laying the groundwork by stating that the Ukraine war is only a proxy war. Republican Presidential candidates like DeSantis are also openly saying that the Ukraine war is a European matter. This new narrative will let the US military save its face, since it can say, “We didn’t lose the war against Russia. It was Ukraine and Europe that lost the war.”
The American hope is that Ukraine will turn into a war of attrition that will keep Russia busy for a few years. If there’s a war against China, the US would benefit from a Russia that’s stuck in a quagmire in Ukraine.
(My prediction is that Russia will not only win the war within a year but will emerge truly victorious, when a few more regions – including Odessa – decide to join Russia. This will not only fortify Russia’s security but will also galvanize its economy, thanks to the abundant natural resources and robust industrial sector in these regions. Furthermore, new trade links from Black Sea to Iran and China will turbocharge Eurasian integration and development).
The prolonged war in Ukraine will weaken Europe’s economy, which has already been “Japanified.” In 2008, the EU’s GDP was 10% larger than that of the US; now, the US economy is almost twice as large as the Eurozone’s! Wages in Europe have declined over the last decade – for example, half of all French workers now make less than €2000 a month; and wages in Greece are one-third the wages in the US.
Anti-Russian sanctions are further decimating the already weak economies of European countries, which have spent hundreds of billions of Euros on subsidizing energy. In Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, companies that have been around for 100+ years are going bankrupt. Mittelstand, the small-medium business which is the backbone of German economy, is crippled by shortages of electricity, oil and natural gas as well as geopolitical tensions with Russia and China.
The deindustrialization of Germany and the rest of Europe is accelerating, and that is good for corporate America, which can invite the struggling European companies and their best workers to move to the US. Plus, Blackrock and other Wall Street firms can soon swoop in and buy European companies at a discount. Europeans should know this playbook, since they have used the IMF and World Bank to plunder developing nations for decades.
American elites also forced the EU to cancel its investment treaty with China after the two sides had spent seven years in tough negotiations. This treaty (CAI) would have opened up China much more to European companies. One year after succumbing to American pressure, the EU labeled China as a “strategic rival” and now as a “threat.”
With a friend like the USA, who needs enemies?
Conclusion
In the early 1980s, US geopolitical mastermind Brzezinski met with the Afghan Mujahideen – future Al Qaeda – and said, “That land belongs to you. Your cause is right and God is on your side.”
The US gave a similar speech to Ukrainians, pointing to Crimea and Donbass. And the US is giving the same speech to Indians behind closed doors, pointing to Aksai Chin and Tibet.
India must stay pragmatic and avoid being dragged into an American proxy war in Asia. At some point, the West will try to decouple India from Russia as well. These are obviously terrible for India’s economy and national interests.
By 2030, India’s GDP will likely be larger than those of Japan and Germany. However, India’s GDP-per-capita will still be around $4,000 – same as that of China in 2007, once adjusted for inflation. That is, India will be twenty-three years behind China and likely still a lower-middle income country. That is not the time to engage in a catastrophic war of choice.
Alignment with the West in geopolitical chessboard will only lead to India being used as a pawn. The US is inherently a bad choice as a partner or a role model for economy or foreign policy. The effects of neoliberal economics and financial capitalism are evident in American economy – shrinking middle class, high inequality, exploding debt, high cost of healthcare and education, crumbling infrastructure, dying small towns etc. In foreign policy, the US engages in perpetual wars and is rightly known as the Empire of Chaos.
Modi and the Indian government should stick to authentic strategic autonomy. India needs to focus on and align itself with the emerging multipolar world. Regarding China, “managed strategic competition” should be the mantra for India. Perhaps Russia can help mediate border resolution for the two frenemies. The expansion of BRICS – with 20 new potential members – along with dedollarization, will provide compelling opportunities for trade, development and cooperation. The future belongs to those countries that embrace development of foundational imperatives such as infrastructure, education, jobs, healthcare, industrialization and innovation.
--- S.L. Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst and writer based out of Bangalore, India. Follow him on Twitter: @Kanthan2030 and Substack: slkanthan.substack.com