Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is delaying presidential elections in the country because he wants to stay in power for as long as possible to reap the benefits of the Western-funded reconstruction, a geopolitical pundit has said.
The remarks of Dr. Marco Marsili, an associate fellow at the Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis and former public official and election observer for the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), come hours after the Ukrainian leader stated that polls in the East European nation would have to be funded by West
Also, according to the Ukrainian president, election observers would have to go to the trenches.
In this light, Marsili shared his views on the topic in a wide-ranging interview with Sputnik, where he discussed the economic benefits Zelensky and his aides will reap if elections are delayed for a prolonged time, why polls should be held in Ukraine without much delay amongst others.
Sputnik: What happens if the conflict lasts for years? You can't suspend democracy and postpone it indefinitely until the conflict lasts?
Dr. Marco Marsili: Elections, participation, and voting are part of the electoral process, which is a ritual act of democracy itself. One day, elections will take place. Even Afghanistan held 7 elections between 2004-2019, during a conflict that US President Biden characterized as "the longest war in American history". Armenia and Azerbaijan organized regular elections, despite the 1994-ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as Syria, where a civil war has been going on since 2011.
The Russian Federation also held elections during the "war in Dagestan and Chechnya". Elections are held regularly in Cyprus, despite the Turkish permanent military occupation in half of the island country since 1974. The 1944 United States presidential election was held in November 1944, during World War II, which ended the following year, with 16 million servicemen in the trenches abroad.
Finally, in July 1945, less than two months following the unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany in Europe, the United Kingdom held general elections that included overseas votes, while World War II was still going on (Japan surrendered on 2 September 1945).
Elections were not suspended in any country during the COVID-19 pandemic, and e-voting is a common system adopted by Western "democracies", including Switzerland and the US, and many other countries like Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, Pakistan, Congo, and Namibia, just to mention a few.
So, nothing prevents Ukraine from holding elections in the current context. Democracy is not an alternating current that you can switch on/off when it's more convenient.
Sputnik: How much of a bluff is Zelensky's willingness to hold presidential elections? Why do you think Zelensky has changed his mind on elections?
Dr. Marco Marsili: Of course, politicians want to stay in power forever and elections can oust them. Despite the ban on 11 pro-Russian parties, including OPZZh (Opposition Platform-For Life), once the second-largest party in the nation and the largest pro-Russian party in the country, Zelensky faces the growing support that Serhiy Prytula is gaining.
Obviously, in a democratic election, there shouldn't be any parties that are not allowed to participate, like pro-Russian parties. The majority of the population may want a negotiated solution to the conflict - war is never popular, and a travel ban was introduced in Ukraine to avoid the fleeing of conscripts.
Sputnik: The election idea is still on tenterhooks, but the Ukrainian president already says they would need new packages of financial aid from the West. Is this yet another occasion to beg for money?
Dr. Marco Marsili: Ukraine is among the most corrupt countries in Europe and toward the bottom globally, and financial aid from the West is definitely an opportunity for Ukrainian political and military leaders to put money in their pockets, as demonstrated by two major corruption scandals on government procurement of military catering services and electrical generators that were revealed last January.
Sputnik: Do you believe the West really wants these elections to happen? Given presidential elections are set to take place both in the US and Russia in 2024, don't you think the postponement of elections in Ukraine will be more beneficial for the West?
Dr. Marco Marsili: Tiny Kox, the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe of which Ukraine is a member, hopes that Ukraine will hold Presidential and Parliamentary elections, as nothing prevents the authorities from organizing them, except the Constitution and the Government that, by renewing the martial law, creates the legal conditions for suspending the popular vote, according to the fundamental law.
The Verkhovna Rada may simply amend the Constitution or introduce an exception in martial law to carry out elections.
Sputnik: Who would be the real one to decide on the matter?
Dr. Marco Marsili: Zelensky and his inner circle - Oleksij Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and Coordinator of the Presidential Staff, firmly rejected any request to hold elections. These people do not want to lose power under any circumstances.
The World Bank's recently estimated reconstruction and recovery costs in Ukraine are worth US $411 billion (equivalent to €383 billion), which is 2.6 times the country's estimated 2022 GDP and this is an opportunity too good to miss for Zelensky.