NATO is set to supply F-16 fighter jest to Ukraine on the condition that the Ukrainian army increases efficiency during its so-called "counteroffensive" — otherwise, the alliance will have to enforce peace.
The question is: what's preventing western allies from enforcing peace in Ukraine now?
NATO & Ukraine Discuss One-Year Extension of Hostilities
Multiple western media agents have reported that Kiev would have to freeze the conflict unless the "counteroffensive" is successful.
But after recent mid-August negotiations between the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Gen. Valery Zaluzhny and the Supreme Allied Commander of Europe Christopher G. Cavoliin, NATO plans for its ally seem to have changed.
Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny. File photo
© AP Photo / Ukrainian Presidential Press Office
It was reported that commanders had been arguing about the Ukrainian Army’s new strategy for five hours. They discussed the prolongation of hostilities, preparations for a winter campaign, and military plans for 2024.
A Western newspaper stated that Americans are dissatisfied with Ukraine's military setbacks and urge Zaluzhny to reconsider his tactics. In particular, to concentrate forces on breaking through southern defense on the way to the Sea of Azov. However, Zaluzhny had other plans.
According to Wall Street Journal, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukraine Armed Forces considered the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to be more like “the Battle of Kursk, and not as a guerilla warfare”.
And the New York Times reported that the US Pentagon aimed to cut off a land corridor to the Crimea. However, the US establishment believes that the Ukrainian forces are too dispersed throughout the frontline to cope with that task.
For instance, equal military forces concentrated around Artemovsk and Melitopol, although Melitopol is more prioritized now. Yet, Kiev was advised to cross minefields, regardless of losses.
Ukraine Has Nothing to Offer NATO
While Kiev demands more military hardware, Washington questions the amount of weapons it will be able to supply in 2024.
He believes that taking control of Rabotino, a village in Russia's Zaporozhye region with a population of 500 people, would be a turning point in Ukraine's offensive, allegedly leading to would lead to Melitopol`s fall in the near future.
Apart from that, it seems that the Zelensky administration does not have any other weighty arguments for the West.
F 16 fighter jets takes part in the NATO Air Shielding exercise near the air base in Lask, central Poland on October 12, 2022.
© AFP 2023 RADOSLAW JOZWIAK
Why Does Ukraine Desperately Need F-16s?
According to Yury Ignata, the speaker of Ukraine's Air Force Command, Kiev needs a total of 128 fighter jets.
The Netherlands and Denmark agreed to provide Kiev with 61 jets in total, Norway – 12.
Zelensky also announced that the military establishment insists on an acceleration of mobilization in Ukraine. According to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov, as many people as it takes will be mobilized.
Deputy Chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Yehor Cherniev, didn't rule out that all men who are fit for service will be sent to the front.
It comes as no surprise that Ukraine Army's reserves will soon be depleted.
Nothing Has Changed in Western Strategy Regarding Ukraine
The prolongation of hostilities for another year ensures an absence of serious negotiations between Kiev and Moscow.
“The EU's intentions to supply Kiev with fighter jets perpetuate the hostile attitude towards Russia and the growing involvement in the Ukraine conflict,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted. She also reminded of the Great Northern War between the Tsardom of Russia and the Swedish Empire, which did not end in Stockholm's favor.
According to the Deputy Head of the CIS Institute Vladimir Zharihin, Washington had high hopes for the successful Ukraine's "counterattack" as it would force Moscow to accept Western terms during the peace negotiations.
Western allies have criticized Kiev for not living up to their expectations. And NATO has now to create a new strategy for Ukraine. But will it be successful?