Can Nawaz Sharif Solve Pakistan's Economic & Political Troubles If Elected?

Pakistan's three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was indicted by an anti-graft court in 2018 and was handed a 10-year sentence, but he fled the country after the Imran Khan-led government allowed him to travel abroad on medical grounds the following year.

Upon his return earlier this week, his convictions remained in force, but the authorities were stopped from arresting Sharif because he is due to appear in court this week.

The return of the PML-N leader to Pakistan comes at a time when the nation is gearing up for national elections, which are scheduled to be held in January 2024.

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (R) waves to his supporters gathered at a park as his daughter Maryam Nawaz (L) reacts during an event held to welcome the former in Lahore on October 21, 2023.

Sharif kick-started his party's campaign for next year's election on Saturday after arriving in his hometown Lahore, promising to tackle record-high inflation.

"I want to serve this nation," said the 73-year-old veteran politician in his address to thousands of his supporters at Lahore's historical venue, Minar-e-Pakistan.

Sputnik India spoke to several Pakistani political observers to get a clearer picture on whether Sharif is capable of steering the country out of economic distress and political instability that has gripped Pakistan.

Former Unit Manager at Engro Corporation, financial and political analyst, Dr. Shahid Rashid opined that Nawaz Sharif has ruled over Pakistan, on and off, for some 40 years.

"It is known that currently in Pakistan everything is under the army's control, so Sharif's return has been orchestrated by the army to pursue a bigger agenda," Dr. Rashid said.

He further explained that the economic problems are linked to the political issues, which started when PTI's chief Imran Khan was ousted from power last year.

"Politically, the establishment wants to eliminate Imran Khan's party Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) from the upcoming elections. Khan is now locked up in jail, but on the ground, the establishment still can not eliminate the party because almost all the youth, 90% of Pakistan's youth, support the PTI. However, considering that many of Pakistan's institutions are currently under [the] army's control, including the election commission and the media, I cannot be sure regarding the outcome of the elections, but Sharif's party is not popular with Pakistanis, especially the youth," Dr. Rashid added.

Talking about the financial issues that Pakistan is facing, the analyst said that the country needs strong financial leadership, but he doesn't see Sharif's party members having the capability to resolve the nation's fiscal woes.

"The former prime minister and Nawaz's brother, Shahbaz Sharif, during his recent tenure formed a Special Facilitation Council... With the formation of this council, the army's role in the financial systems has been further enhanced. Even if Nawaz Sharif comes to power the real control will remain with the army chief," the analyst explained.

Pakistan's annual inflation rate accelerated to a four-month high of 31.4% in September 2023 from 27.4% in the previous month, driven by high fuel and energy prices. Inflation has stayed at elevated in double digits since November 2021.

A pump station in Pakistan

Sputnik India also discussed the matter with a former three-star armed forces official, Shahid Zulfiqar, who agreed with Dr. Rashid, saying that Nawaz Sharif would not be able to make much of a difference because the true power lies with the army.

"The military is controlling politics and all other institutions - [the] NAB (the national accountability bureau), police, election commission, courts etc. Nawaz Sharif will just be a puppet and his personal credibility is also very low," Zulfiqar noted.

Meanwhile, writer and political observer Parvez Salik said that Sharif had been convicted multiple times for corruption and manipulation.

"He is a businessman turned politician who is once again greedy for power... An interesting point is his reconciliation with the army - the king-makers- in his statement, 'Let bygones be bygones' which suits both sides. But the army has lost trust and credibility in the public's eye," Salik stated.

On Saturday, PTI described Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif's homecoming as a "coward fugitive's return under judicial asylum".

"The nation is ready to 'welcome' its criminal who has been 'adopted' by the state," a PTI spokesperson told reporters.

Before returning from London, Nawaz got major reprieves from Pakistan courts that have granted him protection from arrest in the country.

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