PM Narendra Modi is likely to lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to another victory as the saffron party could repeat the results of the 2019 general elections or do better in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, said on Tuesday noted poll strategist Prashant Kishor.
“For the past five months, I have been saying that no matter how you assess the elections, it seems Modi-led BJP is returning. They may get the same numbers as last election or do slightly better,” the expert said during an interview with Indian news TV channel.
“There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger against Modiji,” he claimed.
Apart from this, the poll strategist stated the other fundamental issue —“a clamour of challenger” — when people feel that there is an alternative which could improve their situation and nothing of that sort is being heard about Rahul Gandhi.
Kishor also believes that the saffron party will not suffer material damage in the northern and western part of the country, a stronghold of the BJP since 2014 and accounting for around 325 Lok Sabha seats, on the contrary, its vote share and seats are likely to increase in southern and western India, which account for around 225 seats.
“I see little chance of BJP's score going down,” he said.
The expett also credited the BJP for shifting the election discourse to winning 370 seats from just over the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha, but noted that a failure to reach that mark could disappoint the stock market.
“When the expectation from a company is very high and they do not meet that despite performing well, the stock market punishes them. From this point of view, if the BJP scores less than 370 seats, this may become a talking point. The markets too may reflect this,” Kishor said.
The poll strategist defined BJP’s move to set a target of 370 seats as a "smart" one. He added, "no one is saying that Modi will lose, rather they are discussing that the BJP may not get 370 seats".