Speaking of expectations, for most experts in and out of Russia it was money that was supposed to be the main point of the visit. The situation has been developing too fast, the huge growth of trade turnover has not stopped; the trade has increased by 66% last year and an additional 20% in the first four months of the year.
As a result, Russia has become India's main oil supplier, but you have to do something with the rupees as payment for that. Up to 60% of trade is already in national currencies, but there is a huge imbalance, with Russia's exports being at around $60 billion, and imports at $4 billion.
So, the smooth payment machinery, too, has been discussed at the Kremlin, as well as the new atomic projects and security agreements. The only problem was, there were too many items to talk about.
It was not a usual summit at all. First, there was a long one-to-one discussion with President Vladimir Putin at his country house.Then a flurry of public events (with more words exchanged) and a narrow-circle meeting in Kremlin, to be followed by full-scale negotiations with all the relevant high officials. Further, more and more of these officials were called to the meeting, after which it was discovered that all the projected agreements have been reached, so there was no need for a full session.
Overall, it looks like a reset of relations and a restart of their engine. Too much has happened since the previous such meeting in 2021; we live in a different world today. What matters most in this world, was the main topic of Modi-Putin’s protracted talks in Moscow, and the subject of these were war and peace and the shape of the era to come.
Was it a successful visit? All the signs show that both sides were happy with each other.
Small things matter. There was that joint ride from the huge Russia Exhibition in the North of Moscow to the Kremlin in a behemoth of a car, called Aurus, and decorated by both the flags of India and Russia. Now, that supercar is a pride of a nation, a cherished item of vanity for many rulers of the Middle East.
Next came the news that Putin had been invited to India. Finally, Narendra Modi has been awarded the Order of St. Andrew. That is a truly royal sign of honor. Not many people have that order on their breast. In addition, that is a good sign that the talks in Moscow went very well.
The Russian public will take time to comprehend the real meaning of Narendra Modi’s global diplomacy. "Balance" is not exactly the most popular idea for a nation under attack, especially for a nation that, after being attacked, is obviously winning against the West.
It is easy to imagine the current mindset of an average Russian, who knows quite well that Ukrainians are sending battle drones or shelling on the daily basis Russian territories, while not even pretending to target anything military. That ordinary Russian is also on the frontline of a battle for truth, knowing quite well that an average foreigner, with few exceptions, is getting something like a complete reverse of the real picture of that war.
Finally, an average Russian is a proud creature now, knowing quite well that his country is winning the war and has suddenly strengthened its economy, instead of being crushed down by sanctions and isolation, as it was supposed to be. While the powers that attack Russia, starting from the US, are in the midst of an ugly political and economic crisis. The ones that held power in 2021, when the inevitability of war became obvious, are losing that power now in all kind of public vote, regardless of their political orientation. And you can bet your sweet everything that it was Russia that has caused all that.
That heady mental mix explains why the Russian public is seeing this or numerous other visits by foreign dignitaries as almost exclusively a show of support for a friendly nation in a spectacular battle. It takes a knowledgeable expert to highlight the real fine points of Indian diplomacy.
Let's see what the mentioned knowledgeable experts are saying about the meaning of the visit. Narendra Modi's peacemaking is being highly appreciated, says Alexei Kupriyanov of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). One can see a certain fatigue of that conflict from the Western side, he goes on saying, as well as the desire to probe the Russian positions. So, a couple of years ago Modi’s visit might have been regarded as a bold challenge to the West, but now it’s in the general trend, also visible in the Saudi or Turkish activities.
Lydia Kulik of the Center for Indian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies accents the desire of both Moscow and Delhi to maintain stability in the center of Eurasia and the need to keep outsiders out of it. Alexei Maslov, the director of my Moscow University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies, notes that the US needs India as a counterweight to China, while Moscow definitely does not like it. Therefore, any Russo-Indian rapprochement is bad for the US, since in such a case America loses a powerful advantage in Asia.
That, in sum, is the maximum you can get from the knowledgeable people, moving in the rarefied circles of experts on global policy. These people know quite well what balance is.
My take on these matters is simple: The Prime Minister of India, a huge global power, is gently applying the brakes to the whole conflict, slowing things down but making them relatively safer for all Earthlings. He is not alone, you may add Mr. Victor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, who has just visited Kiev, Moscow and Beijing, and also the mentioned Saudis and Turks. They all know that now is the time to start scaling down the conflict.
As a result, they make a safer world for all of us. A mentioned common Russian may yearn for a total destruction of the West, but what exactly does that destruction mean and what will be the consequences for each and every nation inhabiting that world?
An average Russian may see clearly that NATO and its weaponry proved to be less lethal than one may have thought; that the US economy is simply not sustainable due to de-industrialization and a pile of debt no one will ever pay up. But exactly how the crush of 2024 may look when it comes in? And, finally, what will happen to Europe, which looks like a second victim of war after Ukraine?
People and governments are getting hysterical and making huge mistakes in much better situations. So it takes a wise man to gently apply brakes to a car hurtling down the hill. That will make the current global crisis more extended in time, but safer in the long run.
Dmitry Kosyrev is a Russian writer, author of spy novels and short stories. He also did columns for the Pioneer and Firstpost.com