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US-China Rivalry Increasingly Straining ASEAN Centrality

Concerns are rising in ASEAN and India about undermining ASEAN's centrality in the Indo-Pacific security architecture amid US-China competition, experts say ahead of PM Modi's visit to Lao PDR for the summit.
Sputnik
Bolstering the central role of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), or 'ASEAN centrality,' is one of key priorities of the Lao People's Democratic Republic's (LPDR) presidency of the grouping.
This focus culminates this week with the Summit in Vientiane, co-chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and includes meetings ASEAN 11 'Dialogue Partners': Australia, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US).
ASEAN was floated during Cold War to avoid the spilling over Washington-Moscow tensions in Asia-Pacific, Dr Ian Montratama, a senior International Relations (IR) lecturer at Indonesia’s Pertamina University, explained the significance of the strategic concept to Sputnik India.
"Currently, ASEAN still preserves its role in the hegemonic rivalry between the US and China since early 2000s," Montratama stated, noting that both of the world's largest economies continue to be the dominant political and military powers in the Indo-Pacific.
US-led security framework is perceived as a "new Cold War", raising fears of "proxy wars" in Southeast Asia, the expert highlighted ASEAN's view on US-China tensions. "ASEAN centrality" is crucial for de-escalating maritime disputes in the South China Sea (SCS), he stressed.
"We want the sea to be free to be navigated but refuse to use any coercive diplomacy that will increase the regional security tension," the ASEAN expert emphasised, noting how the Southeast Asian nations are trying to navigate the great power competition.
ASEAN advocated for dialogue based on the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), he said. Furthermore, ASEAN countries firmly support the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) amid the rise of groupings like AUKUS, which the US and the UK assist Australia in developing nuclear submarines.
The ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific (AOIP) seeks to balance realist and liberal perspectives, Montratama explained. He noted that all ASEAN economies see trade and investments from China as vital to their economic well-being, given that the country is the bloc's largest trading partner.
"ASEAN member states need China for FDI, cheap imported products and an export market for domestic products, mainly natural resources and low value-added products," the expert highlighted. He also emphasised that countries like Vietnam view China-US trade tensions as an opportunity to attract western investments amid push to "de-risk supply chains".
ASEAN is trying to balance in terms of how it could benefit from China, alongside any issues it may have, Dr Shankaran Nambiar, the Head of Research at Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), echoed the views about China's economic importance to ASEAN.
"Trade and investment are seen as pivotal points in the ASEAN-China relationship. There is a tendency to prioritise the gains from economic cooperation and leave areas of conflict to diplomacy. In that sense, China is not seen as a threat to ASEAN centrality," Nambiar told Sputnik India.
ASEAN states have chosen to be "strategically ambiguous" in the US-China competition rather than taking side, the pundit highlighted.
Although countries like Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines have strong defence relationships with the US to varying degrees, they were mindful of Beijing's concerns, Nambiar remarked.
"If there's any trepidation, it's the reluctance to offend China and the sense that the US cannot be counted upon fully," the Malaysian expert asserted.
New Delhi greatly values the concept of ASEAN centrality amid US-China rivalry and sees it as a crucial factor of strategic stability in the wider Indo-Pacific region, Major General (retired) Shashi Bhushan Asthana, a Director at New Delhi-based United Services Institution (USI) of India, told Sputnik India.
He recalled PM Modi's words about the convergence between India's Indo-Pacific Ocean's Initiative (IPOI) and ASEAN’s Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), as expressed during the 2023 India-ASEAN Summit in Jakarta.
ASEAN has been designated as the central pillar of India's Act East Policy. We have deep trade, cultural, historical and people-to-people links with ASEAN, Asthana stated.
The mutually beneficial decision to elevate India-ASEAN ties to the level of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in 2022 reflected a "congruent outlook towards India-Pacific", the expert asserted.

"We both have differences with China but also have an expansive economic relationship. As highlighted by the leaderships of both sides, India and ASEAN back adherence to UNCLOS in the Indo-Pacific and have called for an early conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. ASEAN has made its position clear against AUKUS, which is in line with India's longstanding policy of not being part of a military alliance. Similarly, emerging calls for an Asian NATO don't exactly fall in line with our respective strategic outlooks," Asthana highlighted.

The significance of ASEAN to India was set to rise further due to a growing thrust on connectivity, which is part of PM Modi's '12-point proposal' and Laos' presidency theme of 'ASEAN: Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience', Asthana said.
"India's plan to operationalise the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and link it right up to Vietnam to achieve connectivity between Middle-East and southeast Asia," Asthana concluded.
Addressing a briefing on PM Modi’s visit to attend the East Asia Summit (EAS) comprising 10 Southeast Asian countries and India, US, China and Russia among others, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that the mechanism was there to build strategic trust and promote peace and stability, and prosperity for the region.
MEA Secretary (East) Jaideep Mazumdar told the briefing that Modi’s Act East Policy had resulted in "qualitative and transformative development" in India’s relations with ASEAN in the last 10 years.
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