The IOR faces the cascading impact of US-China rivalry at one level and inter-state rivalry at another, according to Dr Pooja Bhatt, an associate professor at the Jindal Global University.
Increased presence of some countries in the region is compelling India to bolster itself militarily across the domains, she told Sputnik India on Monday.
"This is, in turn, seen as a threat to India's own neighbours that are adding to their military prowess. Additionally, in the post-Russia-Ukraine war, militarisation is now seen as a pragmatic way to protect one's sovereignty from threats by several smaller countries [such as Ukraine]. These simultaneous developments are leading to the militarisation of the IOR," Bhatt stated.
However, the regional countries do not want to be a part of the US-China rivalry, the professor asserted.
Considering that Turkiye is providing weapons to both Bangladesh and Pakistan — developments closely watched by India due to security concerns — and that Sri Lanka and Maldives are also involved in a power game between China and India, trying to balance their ties with the two regional heavyweights, the Indian Army veteran explained that it has yet to 'reach a point where conflict has erupted, at least not as of now.'
"If and when a conflict starts between major powers, the IOR will play a key role," Narang said, adding that over 80% of world's oil and a substantial portion of global trade, flow through this region, including the Malacca Strait, which is overlooked by Indian military bases in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Today, China has a permanent military presence through its military base at Djibouti, vessel and submarine deployments and docking with regional partners, and research operations, he pointed out.
"Nevertheless, escalation in the IOR is not a reality due to the heavy presence of regional and international navies in the region. In addition, the Indian Navy is the dominant force in the region, with favourable geographical conditions offering it a distinct advantage over other navies," Desai asserted.
China has made inroads in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project and has made huge investments in smaller countries that share boundaries with India, retired Commodore Seshadri Vasan, a military expert and a former Indian Navy officer told Sputnik India.
"India's concerns are mainly associated with the Arabian Sea because of Pakistan, and the Bay of Bengal because of China. That's why the Malacca Straight is so critical for India and it is where the Indian military is enhancing its capabilities," the analyst observed.