Trump Likely to 'Dump' Ukraine, Shore up Indo-Pacific Support: Experts
Supporting Ukraine was a top priority for the Biden administration, but with Trump back in power, observers suggest the US may "dump" Ukraine, prioritising his 'America First' policy and the MAGA agenda.
SputnikAddressing the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelensky said that "Europe needs to learn how to fully take care of itself", as he noted the uncertainty in the western camp following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.
Citing previous statements by the US officials, Zelensky remarked that Indo-Pacific remained the "top security priority" for the United States, followed by the Middle-East and Europe.
Zelensky's comments were reflective of the "widespread sentiment of trepidation and caution" prevalent in European capitals, Seshadri Vasan, an Indian Navy veteran, retired Commodore, and the Director-General of Chennai Center for China Studies (C3S), told Sputnik India.
Zelensky could see the "writing on the wall", which is that Trump would "dump" Ukraine, Vasan remarked.
He noted that Trump wanted the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies to
increase the defence spending to 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Therefore, it's likely that he would "cut down on American military aid to Ukraine, which has already surpassed $62 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), the highest among Western allies," the veteran added.
"Zelensky doesn't want to be left in the lurch, as he knows that the US has been the biggest military donor to Ukraine since 2022. Like other European leaders, Zelensky understands that Trump and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin have a decent political equation. With Gaza conflict already having been resolved just before Trump took office, the attention would now be on resolving the Ukraine conflict through dialogue and diplomacy involving both Ukraine and Russia," Vasan explained.
Trump's previous statement on resolving the Ukraine conflict within "24 hours" after being sworn-in clearly showed that he won't be exhausting much of his political capital or American taxpayer money on sustaining the same levels of military support to Ukraine as seen in Biden years, the think tank chief said.
Vasan said that Trump has given a clear sense of his priorities by signing Executive Orders, including on restricting illegal immigration, pulling the US out of the World Health Organisation (WHO) and Paris Climate Deal, pausing foreign aid for 90 days, as well as focus on expanding energy exports.
At the same time, Trump held a telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the lead-up to his inauguration, discussing trade, fentanyl and TikTok among other issues.
"To what degree would European Union [EU] heed to Zelensky's appeal and fill the vacuum left by the US is something left to be seen, but it is unlikely that Europe would come together to oppose Trump, due to their own internal political contradictions and the adverse economic spillovers of anti-Russia sanctions," the veteran stated.
Resolving the Ukraine conflict would be the "litmus test" of American foreign policy, former
Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a Distinguished Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)
, told Sputnik India. Both Trigunayat and Vasan agreed that the Trump administration would further shore up America's support in the Indo-Pacific, a region where successive US administrations view China as a strategic rival.
The experts further noted that the presence of Indian External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar along with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and their Japanese counterpart Iwaya Takeshi at Trump's swearing-in, and the subsequent Quad Foreign Ministers meeting with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, sent a "reassuring message" reqarding the grouping.
Quad and Indo-Pacific remain a cornerstone of US foreign policy, Trigunayat stated, adding that the Quad interaction could also be viewed in the context of the upcoming Summit in India later this year.
Trigunayat suggested that Trump could also hold a meeting with Xi in coming weeks in order to reduce "tensions" in the Indo-Pacific, provided that China "does not take such talks as a carte blanche for its expansionist approaches".
"We could see the US shoring up support in the Indo-Pacific through the Quad and other similar architectures. Despite his concerns over alliances and multilateral groupings, Trump would continue to strengthen the Quad as it complements his objective to contain China," the Indian Navy veteran said.
He noted that it was under the first Trump administration that the Quad was re-launched and the Indo-Pacific Strategic Framework was declassified.
Vasan further underlined that there was an overarching "geostrategic convergence" between the Modi government and Trump administration, regardless bilateral issues such as
tariffs and irregular migration.
Moreover, Jaishankar's presence at Trump's oath-taking showed his commitment to ties with India, the former diplomat stressed.
"In a way, it is reassuring for India as it sees Quad as a platform to highlight emerging threats and trends in the Indo-Pacific. So, the cooperation relating to Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), Maritime Domain Awareness and security, creating resilient supply chains, vaccine and healthcare diplomacy and humanitarian assistance would very much continue and even be further built upon during Trump's tenure," Vasan concluded.