Frigate Diplomacy: How Russia Can Help India's Project 11356M
The prolonged conflict in Ukraine will have an adverse affect on the ability of the Indian Navy to operate. But Russia can provide a solution, Vijainder K Thakur writes in his column for Sputnik India.
India's guarded neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict and consistently advocated desire for early peace negotiations to end the conflict, partially stem from multi-faceted concerns over the likely impact of a prolonged conflict on the operational state of the Indian Navy (IN).
India's close defence ties with Russia are routinely highlighted in the media as part of a narrative that the Ukrainian conflict has led to disruption of supply of defence equipment from Russia. India's close defence ties with Ukraine find little mention in the media.
For example, India's ongoing construction of two Admiral Grigorovich-class (Project 11356M) frigates at the Goa Shipyard Limited (GSL) may be in jeopardy because Ukraine supplies the gas turbines to power the warships.
India's Acquisition of Project 11356M Frigates
India on October 15, 2016 signed an IGA (Inter Government Agreement) with Russia to purchase/construct four Admiral Grigorovich-class (Project 11356M) frigates through partnership between a Russian and an Indian shipyard.
Under the agreement, Russia would supply the two of the frigates, the other two would be constructed in an Indian shipyard. Russia would provide technical assistance to the Indian shipyard in setting up production facilities for the 11356M frigates.
The IGA was conceived to be favourable to India. Not only would India get two Project 11356M frigates from Russia, but also partial transfer of shipbuilding technology for constructing them in India under very favourable financial terms.
Russia had compelling reasons to agree to terms favourable to India. The ships were designed around gas turbine propulsion units built by Ukrainian firm Ukroboronprom’s Gas Turbine Research & Production Complex Zorya-Mashproekt. However, following the Maidan coup of 2014, Ukraine refused to supply the engines to Russia!
At the time of Ukraine's refusal, Russia was in the process of building six Project 11356M frigates at PSZ Yantar shipyard in Kaliningrad for the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) of Russia. It had already procured three engines. As a result, it was able to launch three Project 11356M frigates and complete their construction. The remaining three under construction hulls languished in the shipyard for want of propulsion units.
Also, Ukraine's refusal to supply the engines meant Russia could not use the Project 11356M anymore design since it was bespoke to the Ukrainian engine. The IGA with India allowed Russia to cut its losses.
In 2018, India and Russia signed a formal contract under which PSZ Yantar would complete the construction of two languishing Russian hulls for the Indian Navy and help India's Goa Shipyard Ltd. (GSL) build two more in India. (The third languishing Russian hull continues to languish!) The contract envisaged India purchasing two gas turbine propulsion units directly from Ukraine and handing them over to Russia for fitment on the two frigates to be supplied to India.
Delivery Schedule
The two hulls completed by PSZ Yantar are planned to be transferred to the Indian Navy in 2023 and 2024.
The first ship to be constructed at GSL was to be delivered in 2026 and the second, after 06 months.
Construction Progress in Russia
Russia’s Federal Service for Technical and Military Cooperation (FSTMC) told TASS at the DefExpo 2020 in Lucknow on February 6, 2020 that Russia will deliver the two frigates being built at Yantar Shipyard by the end of the first half of 2024.
"In accordance with the existing work schedule agreed by the sides, the Project 11356M frigates under construction at the Yantar Shipyard in Kaliningrad are due to be delivered to the Indian Navy by the end of the first half of 2024," the federal defence agency’s press office said.
In August 2021, a delegation of the Indian Navy under the leadership of Vice Admiral S. Naitani, Chief of the Main Directorate for the Purchase and Production of Warships, visited PZS Yantar to review the progress in equipping the two Indian frigates - "Tushil" and "Tamala" - under construction at the shipyard.
Over two days the Indian team met with representatives of JSC Rosoboronexport, United Shipbuilding Corporation and PSZ Yantar. They discussed the construction progress and outlined a plan for joint further actions.
Since then, both frigates earmarked for India have been launched, fitted with the Ukrainian engines sent to Russia by India.
Construction Progress in India
The keel for the first ship to be built at GSL was laid on January 29, 2021 and the keel of the second, on June 18 2021.
In September 2021, Goa Shipyard Limited signed a contract with the Ukrainian state-owned enterprise M/s. Zorya-Mashproekt for supply of two sets of M7N Main Gas Turbines.
It's not known if Ukraine has supplied to India any of the two ordered engines.
The Problem
Ukraine's Zorya-Mashproekt enterprise in the Mykolaiv region, which produces the engines for Project 11356M frigates, was reportedly already headed for bankruptcy before the start of Russia's Special Military Operations (SMO) in Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Following the start of the SMO, on March 13, 2022, Zorya-Mashproekt's construction facility was struck by a Russian missile attack. According to a CSIS analysis, Russia’s stand-off strikes damaged significant portions of the plant and caused large fires, likely crippling the plant’s ability to produce turbines in the near term.
It's clear that Zorya-Mashproekt will not resume production of gas turbines before the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
Impact on India
In March 2022, Indian officials likely judged that the conflict would end in a month or two. However, today it's clear that US and NATO's escalatory weapons supplies to Ukraine will stretch the conflict for years. Indeed, US and NATO officials have clearly articulated that they are prepared for the long haul.
Russia has vigorously pursued import substitution projects to eliminate its dependency on Zorya-Mashproekt turbines since 2014. When it struck the enterprise facilities, Russia had evidently made a decision that it could do without the enterprise. It's likely that the reason Russia has not destroyed the enterprise facilities completely is because of the possibility that Mykolaiv may well come under Russian control eventually.
Options for India
Besides Project 11356M frigates, Zorya-Mashproekt turbines power many other Indian warships including Talwar (Project 11356) class frigates and Kolkata (Project 15) & Visakhapatnam (Project 15B) class destroyers. As such, a prolonged war will adversely impact the Indian Navy's operational capability.
India cannot keep its fingers crossed and wait for production of gas turbines and spares to resume at Zorya-Mashproekt. For the short term, India needs to aggressively participate in Russia's import substitution efforts for spares of Ukrainian marine gas turbines with Make-in-India joint ventures.
A prolonged conflict will scuttle India's attempt to leverage the technology that it acquired from Russia for building Project 11356M warships in Goa.
To safeguard our investments in the Project 15 and Project 11356M class designs, we can look at internal redesign of the future ships to work with an alternative Indian developed gas turbine engine. The gas turbine, if developed in partnership with Russia's Saturn would likely entail lower costs since it would be in the long term interest of Russia also.
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