Will American ATACMS Change Ukrainian Battlefields?
21:35 06.10.2023 (Updated: 12:16 13.10.2023)
© AP Photo / South Korea Defense Ministry
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The Kiev regime is anticipating miracles on the frontline yet again with the arrival of new Western weaponry. Sputnik assesses the potential impact of ATACMS on the battlefield.
Several US media outlets have reported that President Joe Biden has authorized the delivery of ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) to Ukraine. Sputnik analyses whether the weapon will have an impact on the current situation at the front.
The White House has not officially confirmed the press reports. "We have been in ongoing discussions with Ukraine since day one, trying to deliver what they need. […] The process is ongoing", US Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded evasively.
Kiev has been requesting these missiles since last autumn. They were eagerly anticipated prior to the so-called "counteroffensive", but Washington declined.
Apparently, an agreement has been reached, while also putting pressure on Berlin, which has ignored Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's demands to transfer Taurus air-to-surface missiles. The situation bears a striking resemblance to the case with the supply of Western tanks to Ukraine. At the time, the German government was also hesitant to deliver Leopards before the Abrams had been approved overseas.
What Modifications of ATACMS Missiles Currently Exist?
The ATACMS missile, developed by the United States, is a solid-fueled surface-to-surface weapon with a range of 300 kilometres. The munition has multiple variants with various payloads, targeting systems, and effective ranges:
M39 (MGM-140A/ATACMS Block I) - a guided missile with a 560-kilogram cluster payload that contains 950 M74 submunitions. Its effective range is up to 165 kilometres;
M39A1 (MGM-140B/ATACMS Block IA) is akin to the M39, but features a switch from an inertial to a GPS guidance system and smaller cluster quantity of 275-300, thereby pushing its range to 300 kilometres;
M48 (MGM-164A/ ATACMS Quick Reaction Unitary) is equipped with a WDU-18/B fragmentation warhead shared with the American Harpoon anti-ship missile and has a range of up to 300 kilometres.
M57 (ATACMS 2000) is an upgraded version of the WDU-18/B unitary warhead missile, which boasts a considerable improvement in accuracy, with a circular probable deviation of only 10 meters.
M57E1 (ATACMS 2000 MOD) features the same warhead as the M57, but with significantly enhanced precision.
Can ATACMS Help Ukraine?
These weapons are deployed using either the M142 HIMARS or the M270 MLRS, the latter of which has the capacity to carry up to two missiles. The cost of firing a salvo can soar up to $1.7 million.
Ukraine intends to target command centres using ATACMS. However, there is a catch. According to Western media, the US is supplying Ukraine with a version with cluster munitions, either MGM-140A or MGM-140B loaded with M74 submunitions. The shrapnel can reach up to 450 meters.
Nonetheless, American experts have noted that this version of ATACMS is ineffective against armored vehicles and fortified structures. Overall, as revealed by events in the Zaporozhye region, cluster bombs have not broken Russia's defences.
The closest equivalent to ATACMS in the NATO arsenal is the British Storm Shadow. However, it hasn't had any impact on the situation at the frontline.
The Storm Shadow can only be launched from aircraft. Currently, Russia possesses the advantage of air supremacy, and the ongoing conflict involves a dense concentration of air defence systems.
This is where the ground-based American missile has an advantage, hence the high anticipation of the Ukraine Armed Forces for its procurement.
"ATACMS certainly poses a threat to us; however, our primary focus should be on targeting HIMARS installations and identifying and eliminating warehouses with these weapons".
Analysts note that Russian air defence systems, specifically the Tor-M2 and Buk-M2/M3, are capable of dealing with such weapons. Nonetheless, targeting these weapons is considerably more challenging than shorter-range alternatives.
Success depends on the distance of the launchers from the front. In this case, the most suitable approach may involve aviation, according to Dmitry Kornev, military observer and founder of Military Russia website, says.
"Russian MiG-29s and Su-27s armed with Kh-31 missiles have the ability to discreetly eliminate HIMARS and MLRS, provided that proper reconnaissance and maximum speed of target acquisition are ensured".
The number of missiles to be launched remains uncertain. According to US media, only a few units have been transferred, and even Kiev acknowledges that this won't alter the situation at all.
4 October 2023, 11:10
