India’s Strategic Imperatives After the Elections
15:09 31.05.2024 (Updated: 12:06 05.06.2024)
© AP Photo / Anupam Nath
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Modi's re-election seems all but certain, but India will encounter serious geopolitical challenges during his third term. The decisions in the upcoming five years will have a profound impact on India's economic goals, particularly the vision of achieving a developed nation status by 2047, as outlined in Viksit Bharat 2047.
While India’s marathon elections are coming to an end and Modi’s re-election is likely guaranteed, India will face alarming geopolitical challenges in his third term. Moreover, the decisions to be taken in the next five years will significantly impact the Indian economic dream of Viksit Bharat 2047 – governments goal to make the country developed nation by 2047. That year is significant not only for being the 100th anniversary of India’s independence but also for peak working-age population.
India can become one of the great poles in a multipolar world, but must tread extremely carefully, since the world is about to enter great times of turbulence. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East can escalate rapidly, and Asia can very well be trapped in a catastrophic war before the end of this decade. And the puppet master orchestrating all of this be the Empire of Chaos – the United States of America.
America and its ongoing dangerous wars
Indians must understand the enormous risks that the world will face during the rest of this decade. These geopolitical dangers include not only disruption to trade and global economic growth, but also potentially disastrous – even nuclear – wars. This is not a hyperbole.
Every day, the US and its vassal, the European Union, are escalating the conflict in Ukraine. NATO has become "Stupidstan", where people are openly talking about using Ukraine as a launchpad to bomb strategic targets within Russia. Imagine if China provided missiles, intelligence and advisors to Mexico in order to attack San Francisco and New York. Would the US not obliterate Mexico off the map and then perhaps bombard some cities in China as well?
In the Middle East, Israel is trying to expel two million people off Gaza completely. The war has also unofficially expanded to include Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran. This is made possible by the USA. First, the US provides massive financial and military aid – yes, it’s American missiles that have killed 25,000 Palestinian women and children since last October. Second, the US protects Israel from UN condemnations and sanctions through the use of its veto power in the UN Security Council. Now, the US also disparages and threatens international courts – ICC and ICJ. The entire international system is being dismantled in real time.
If Hezbollah attacks Tel Aviv or if the Houthis manage to sink an American warship in the Red Sea, a regional war is guaranteed. Let us not forget that Iran is the big prize for Israel and the Neocons in the US, who have been dreaming about a regime change in Iran and total regional hegemony for three decades. However, there are now rumors about Iran having enough enriched uranium to produce nuclear weapons. Will the "United States of Israel" bomb Iran to stop the latter from attaining the ultimate deterrence?
If American belligerence towards Russia and Iran are scary, globalists in Washington DC are preparing for a war against China as well. The US is arming Taiwan and trying to walk away from the 1970s agreement that Taiwan is a part of China. Biden has held summits with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, trying to build a coalition of the willing to take on China. Yeah, that’s the American modus operandi – make the vassals fight and die on behalf of the Empire.
Thus, the world is sitting on top of a powder keg. But why?
Why USA is desperate and dangerous
The United States of America is in its last stage as an Empire, like Rome was around 300 AD. Like all imploding Empires, America’s debt is rising exponentially, corruption is endemic, wealth inequality is shocking, the society is deeply polarized, and the military is over-stretched.
Don’t be deceived by America’s $28 trillion GDP. Last year, the US federal government borrowed $3 trillion, without which the US economy would have been in a deep recession. So much for capitalism and free market. This year, for the first time in history, the US will spend more money on interest payments (on debt) than on the military. All these are financially unsustainable and logically untenable.
The only reason that the US is able to print trillions of dollars and enjoy massive trade deficits every year is due to the exorbitant privilege of the US dollar. As long as the rest of the world needs the US dollar to trade with one another, the USD and the country will continue to enjoy their dominance. Worse, the US turns around and weaponizes the dollar to punish allies and crush rivals – for example, the US stole more than $300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves; and then tried to stop India from buying Russian oil or building the Chabahar port in Iran.
But guess what? The world is sick of American hegemony and abuse. That’s why dedollarization has caught on like wildfire; and why BRICS is expanding so fast. Imagine the organization currency that enables its members to circumvent the US dollar. With Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran and Russia as members, BRICS+ is already a commodity giant. When oil, gas, coal, iron core, lithium, wheat, gold etc. are priced and traded in BRICS currency, it will be the end of the dollar’s primacy, and thus the American despotism.
Another colossal blunder by the financial overlords of the US was to deindustrialize the economy and offshore manufacturing starting in the 1970s. Consider that the US’ share of global steel production was 33% in 1970; now it is barely 5% and 1/10th as much as China. In electric cars, China is so far ahead that the US is imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese EV. As Elon Musk whined, "Without trade barriers, Chinese EV will demolish rivals". Quite pathetic for a country that evangelized free trade and created institutions such as the WTO. The US is now dependent on China for everything from electronics to medicines. Even the mighty US military industrial complex cannot survive without Chinese suppliers.
This is why the US needs a "Great Reset" that would allow it to write off all its debt and start over with a clean slate. Moreover, if the US somehow manages to defeat Russia and China, the US will have access to the hundreds of trillions of dollars of natural resources in Russia as well as the world-class manufacturing ecosystem in China. Globalists will finally attain their dream of global domination – what Washington elites and military generals describe as "full-spectrum dominance".
Divide and Rule
Consider that Asia’s nominal GDP is much larger than that of the US: $42,7 trillion to $28,8 trillion (data by International Monetary Fund). How about Eurasia, the supercontinent, with a population of 5 billion and GDP of $68 trillion? That is the real threat for American hegemony. A peaceful Eurasia where all countries cooperate with one another will make the US irrelevant in the global chessboard.
This is why the US wants wars everywhere: Russia v Europe, China v Asian countries, Saudi Arabia v Iran and so on.
Consider how the Western Hemisphere is so peaceful. The US has no threats in North or South America. This is how a country with 4% of the world’s population gets to rule the other 96% — peace at home and chaos abroad.
America’s elites are also using "bread and circus" to distract their own people, 85% of whom say that US politicians do not care about Americans. Some of the trickery involves social engineering, which is turning the US (and Europe) into Sodom and Gomorrah. Such satanic manipulations are going to destroy nuclear families and even the Western civilization in the long run. India certainly does not need such degeneracy and debauchery.
No benefits for American allies
Some Indians may think of America as an ally. However, the US has no allies, only interests. Here are some examples:
During WW2, the USSR was an ally of the US; and millions of Russians sacrificed their lives to destroy 75% of the Nazi military. However, after the war, the US took all the credit for defeating Nazism, launched the Cold War, and turned the Soviet Union into an enemy. When the USSR was dismantled, the US once again attempted to destroy Russia, which sought friendship.
Japan was a great ally after WW2, until the Japanese became better than Americans in technology. The US immediately pounced on Japan, accused it of unfair practices – very similar to what’s happening to China now – and forced the infamous Plaza Accord on Japan, and literally stole all the semiconductor technology. The US also forced Japan to strengthen Yen, thereby decimating Japanese exports. Plus, Japanese automakers were forced to move their factories to the US. In 1995, Japan’s economy was 15 times larger than that of India. However, India is on the cusp of surpassing Japan in 2025. Japan was simply neutered by America.
After destroying the Japanese economy, the US turned South Korea and Taiwan into tech hubs. But with a catch. All the Korean and Taiwanese companies were controlled by the US. Thus, we now witness the US stealing semiconductor fab IP and expertise from Taiwan’s TSMC. As for South Korea, it is occupied by the US military. Korea, for all its wealth, has no sovereignty. If the US goes to war with China, one of the first victims will be South Korea.
Look at Germany, which was once the leader of all sorts of technologies. However, thanks to being ruled over by the US, Germans were never given a chance to develop key tech sectors over the last 30 years. How come there are no German versions of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Intel, Micron, Qualcomm etc.?
GDP Japan & Germany
© Photo : Social Media
India is treated as a friend only because the US realized after 2008 that its Ponzi system was falling apart, and China was rising too rapidly. Thus, India is seen as a bulwark against China, that’s all. There are no sentimental feelings based on democracy or liberal international order – those are farcical slogans for mass consumption.
Once India reaches a certain threshold in terms of economy, the American hammer will come down. Actually, we can already see the anti-India articles in the US/UK media. Biden backing out of India’s Republic Day parade and Elon Musk canceling his trip to India – while he went to China and Indonesia soon after – may also be signs of American displeasure.
The real meaning of "ally" in the American dictionary is "vassal". So, if India is willing to give up its sovereignty and strategic autonomy, allow US military bases on Indian soil, and fight China to the last Indian – like Ukraine fights Russia – then India will be embraced as an ally of the US. And we will have the honor and privilege of agreeing with the US all the time and following orders. Life may even be a bit better than under the British Empire, because the American Empire rules from afar and is far better in propaganda.
India’s foreign and economic policy imperatives
First, India must understand that a multipolar world is emerging, and India will be a significant pole in this new paradigm. India must play an active role in fostering multilateralism and peace. All-alignment should be the guiding principle. Enemy of none, friends of all. India must disavow bloc politics and wars – not just hot wars but also economic and hybrid wars. Every country should be able to determine its own political and economic systems, while adhering to broad principles of human rights.
Foreign policy is directly linked to economic interests. Thus, for India, close ties to Russia are strategic and indispensable. Russia will be a crucial supplier of military weapons as well as natural resources – oil, gas, coal, and other minerals – that will be critical in enabling rapid growth for the Indian economy.
From a geopolitical point of view, Russia is a great power that will be India’s partner in working with the Global South. If India wants a spot in the UN Security Council, Russia will be the key enabler. It would behoove India and Russia to set up tech innovation hubs and incubators in key cities in both countries to bring together scientists and engineers from both countries to collaborate on key sectors such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, quantum computing, space, and biotech. Indo-Russian unicorns – what a great concept!
As for China, Modi will hopefully reach out to Xi Jinping after the elections. As the host of a new show called Geopolitics Demystified, I interviewed Erik Solheim, former UN Environment Minister. He said that the border issues should not hinder China-India relations, since the borders do not have any strategic values in terms of natural resources or military. There is far more to be gained through cooperation between the two Asian giants with three billion people.
China is India’s largest trading partner; and many key sectors of India’s economy depend on Chinese imports. It is not a bad thing, since it is a win-win partnership. China is getting old and needs to offshore some manufacturing, which is exactly what India needs. The next 10 years will be the most consequential, since India’s demographic dividend will not last long. 15 years from now, India will be where China is today, in terms of median age.
Thus, India should be pragmatic and invite Chinese companies to open up massive factories and to offer technology transfer. What India needs is Chinese companies that make electric cars for $5000, not Tesla cars for $25,000. What India needs is Chinese HiSense that makes cheap household appliances, not Netflix from the US.
India must also encourage people-to-people exchange with China. Two great and ancient civilizations should have the wisdom to discover areas for synergy.
Thus, India needs to accelerate three things with extraordinary dedication:
Invite foreign direct investments (FDI) from foreign companies for manufacturing that create millions of relatively high-paying jobs
Improve infrastructure – especially electricity generation, water, highways, railways, seaports and airports
Urbanization – move perhaps 200-300 million Indians to cities over the next decade
Conclusion
During the Vietnam War, an American officer explained to the press why the US military used the horrific Napalm that killed countless civilians: "We had to destroy the town to save it". This is the US foreign policy in a nutshell. The Empire of Chaos – a.k.a. the USA – is the arson of geopolitics. It will burn down the whole world to rule over it – euphemistically, to "save the free world".
The US is a rogue empire that follows no moral principles or international laws. Slogans such as democracy, freedom, rules-based order, and human rights are vacuous soundbites. The US itself is an oligarchy that is of the 1%, by the 1% and for the 1%; freedom does not exist outside a narrow Overton Window determined by the US; there are no rules except that the US must always win and stay #1; and human rights involve fringe sexual rights and not the right to have, say, education, jobs, housing and healthcare.
As for the economy, India must resist being exploited for cheap labor. India’s goal should be to establish an industrial society based on production and innovation. There should be a vibrant middle class, world-class infrastructure, and a clean environment.
The Modi administration must embrace multipolarity and multilateralism, while rejecting unipolarity and perpetual wars. During India’s G20 presidency, the grand vision was "One Earth, One Family, One Future". That should be the driving principle and the mission statement for Modi’s third term.
