Indo-Russian Relations
Daily coverage of what makes ties between Delhi & Moscow ever-lasting — even in times of western sanctions.

Indo-Russian Naval Alliance Key to Creating Multipolar Global Order

© PhotoRussian Navy Cruiser Joins India's Multinational 'MILAN 2024' Naval Exercise
Russian Navy Cruiser Joins India's Multinational 'MILAN 2024' Naval Exercise - Sputnik India, 1920, 15.11.2024
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India and Russia have expanded cooperation, including a Joint Military Deployments agreement this year. Sputnik India examines how their Indian Ocean partnership may shape global dynamics.
Enhanced Indo-Russia cooperation would shake up America's stranglehold on the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), thus making a significant move towards achieving multipolarity in the naval domain, experts have said.

"The Indo-Russian partnership works to counterbalance the United States' dominant position in the IOR, thereby fostering a multipolar power structure. Russia and India challenge the Western-centric security order by fortifying their defence and maritime cooperation, which provides regional countries with alternative security partnerships beyond the US-led framework," Joseph P Chacko, a maritime security analyst and author told Sputnik India on Friday.

Additionally, the Russia-India axis enables India and other regional states to maintain a certain level of strategic autonomy, preventing an excessive reliance on a single power, the expert continued. The IOR serves as a significant theater for this dynamic, and their cooperation is a critical pillar in the broader endeavor to establish a multipolar global order, he added.

Should the Indian Navy emerge as the dominant force in the IOR, India could benefit from increased Russian involvement, with Russia providing advanced hardware, technology, and joint training to enhance India's military capabilities, the pundit observed.
Russia could offer diplomatic support to India's regional leadership and security initiatives, strengthening India's strategic autonomy, he argued. Additionally, the IOR could present India with opportunities to diversify its partnerships and reduce reliance on Western powers as a result of increased economic and energy cooperation between Russia and India, the expert suggested.

"Enhanced Russian presence and participation in the IOR would likely affect a wide range of strategic dynamics between the United States and Russia. Russia has the potential to enhance its naval and air force presence in the IOR, thereby challenging the United States' dominance in the region and increasing military activity and power projection," Chacko said.

Also, Russia may endeavor to fortify its partnerships with countries in the IOR, potentially competing with the US for economic, political, and security alliances. This could potentially affect regional security architectures, such as the Quad (US, India, Japan, and Australia), necessitating modifications to strategies and alignments, he suggested.
However, an increased Russian presence in the IOR could come about if the two countries finally signed the long-awaited Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics (RELOS) agreement that could allow each to use the other's facilities for logistical purposes, Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst, stated in a conversation with Sputnik India.

"A greater and more regular Russian role in the IOR would balance out the Sino-US competition there by having Russia serve as a reliable third-party partner for countries to cooperate with instead of the seemingly zero-sum Sino-US choice," Korybko highlighted.

Thus, rather than escalating New Cold War tensions, which are expected to shift from Europe to Asia under Trump 2.0 following the end of the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine — whenever that may occur and regardless of the terms agreed upon, — Russia's increased presence in the IOR could ultimately help reduce them, the geopolitical observer assumed. This would also help alleviate pressure on both Russia and India, the expert emphasised.

Closer Russo-Indo cooperation in the IOR, especially its naval dimension if RELOS is finally signed, can supercharge their shared vision of serving as a joint third pole of influence in an increasingly bifurcated Sino-US world whose systemic effects would be felt much more strongly as the New Cold War shifts to Asia, he underscored.

"They can, therefore, form a reliable third party for other nations to partner with — countries that would prefer to remain neutral in the Sino-US front of the New Cold War, rather than feeling pressured to side with one superpower at the risk of offending the other," Korybko assessed.

The grand strategic goal is for the Russo-Indo Strategic Partnership to accelerate latent tri-multipolarity processes by functioning as the basis for an Afro-Eurasian New Non-Aligned Movement (Neo-NAM) that would maintain systemic stability amidst worsening Sino-US tensions, he opined.

Korybko believes that this informal network, likely comprised of many mini-laterals centered on Russia, India, and both nations together, can then defend against increasingly stronger bipolarity pressures on the global system to advance a more complex form of multipolarity with time.

India is keen on building what could be called a "security system" for the Indian Ocean region that serves the interests of all regional players, Alexey Kupriyanov, the head of the Center of the Indo-Pacific Region at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO) told Sputnik India.

"Primarily, radar stations are being built along the entire coast of the Indian subcontinent, as well as in other countries that wish to participate — such as Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, the Maldives, and, until recently, Sri Lanka, among others. These stations serve a 'noble' mission," Kupriyanov underlined.

For example, he explained, if a merchant ship is hijacked by pirates or gets into trouble, such as sinking during a storm, having full awareness of what's happening in the ocean makes it much easier to assist. This is what the Indians call Maritime Awareness— essentially, knowing what's happening across the maritime domain, he added.

Apart from that India is strengthening its position around the Andaman Islands, which block the Strait of Malacca, and is gradually creating a surveillance system for the Sunda Strait, the Lombok Strait, and other narrow passages in the Malay Barrier, Kupriyanov asserted.

He anticipates that the western part of the Indian Ocean, particularly the East African coastline, is an area where Russia's presence would not raise any major objections.
He believes that, given Russia's economic pivot to the East, the Pacific Fleet will need strengthening. As Russian naval power shifts eastward, the fleet will be crucial in securing maritime trade routes, including those to India, in light of the growing trade between the two countries, Kupriyanov analysed.
"There's a very real possibility that Russian warships will be deployed to ensure the stability of these trade routes and to prevent any future disruptions, such as the kind we experienced when our ships were detained by EU vessels earlier in the conflict," he spotlighted.
Indo-Russia cooperation has a long history, with Russia having collaborated with India in various areas, particularly during the Soviet era, Sergey Lunev, a professor at the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO University (Moscow State Institute of International Relations), noted in an interview with Sputnik India. He also highlighted that in Russia's 2015 maritime doctrine, India is designated as a key ally in the Indian Ocean.

He called India a strong proponent of a multipolar world. Not many people know this, but in the 19th century, the British settled around 30 million Indian workers along the entire perimeter of the Indian Ocean. There is no country with a coastline along the Indian Ocean that doesn't have an Indian diaspora and India is developing economic ties with these communities, Lunev revealed.
"Interestingly, India's most recent naval doctrine, also adopted in 2015, emphasises the need to be active not only in the Indian Ocean but also in the Pacific. This reflects their understanding of the 'Indo-Pacific' region. In this sense, India seeks to be the dominant power around the Indian Ocean, despite its broader commitment to a multipolar world order. Important processes in the region are only just beginning. We welcome a multipolar world, and that's certainly justified," he concluded.
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