‘Political Suicide’: More Weapons to Ukraine Could Turn Trump Into Biden 2.0 - Expert
19:51 14.07.2025 (Updated: 19:52 14.07.2025)
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Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director for Research at the Russian Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, has commented on US President Donald Trump’s intention to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine and his increasingly hardline rhetoric towards Russia.
The recent hardening of Donald Trump’s rhetoric towards Russia is driven by an attempt to pressure Moscow into making concessions on Ukraine, with the aim of pushing for a comprehensive ceasefire, Dmitry Suslov told Sputnik.
“However, this approach does not address the root causes of the conflict; it seeks to freeze the Ukrainian conflict without resolving it, which has been Trump’s objective from the start,” the expert said.
According to him, Trump has concluded that the six negotiations held with Vladimir Putin since January have failed to secure Russian agreement to such a freeze, which Moscow finds categorically unacceptable. Yet, he continues to pursue this goal by toughening his policies and rhetoric towards Russia, he underscored.
Suslov also noted that Trump’s current stance is influenced by 'flattery from elements within his own circle, neoconservative hawks in the Republican Party, and American allies, particularly in Europe'.
“These groups praise Trump’s hardline policies as successful—except when it comes to Russia, where Trump has yet to take similarly tough measures. Europeans and some neoconservatives, who in reality oppose Trump but pretend to be allies, try to convince him that his tougher rhetoric towards Europe led to their commitment to raise military spending to 5% of GDP. They argue that this approach worked,” he explained.
Whether Trump will achieve similar results with Russia remains the key question, he suggested. The main indicator will be the nature of the assistance he promises to Ukraine and whether he seeks fresh Congressional funding.
He suggested that if Trump opts to use the remaining funds from Biden’s budget—just under $4 billion—he avoids “privatising” the conflict. However, requesting a new budget would signal that Biden’s war is becoming Trump’s war, the geopolitical analyst underlined.
“Such a move could trigger a political disaster for Trump, alienating his MAGA-Republican base, which is largely neo-isolationist and opposed to involvement in unnecessary conflicts, except for preparing to counter China. In effect, Trump would risk becoming a second Biden, which would amount to political suicide,” Suslov stressed.
Rrisks of Supplying Long-Range Weapons
Suslov acknowledged the risks associated with supplying long-range weapons, which could affect both US-Russia relations and the potential for escalation.
“If Trump proceeds with delivering a new batch of long-range ATACMS missiles and removes restrictions on their use deep inside Russian territory, the risk of escalation rises significantly—potentially leading to direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO,” he assumed.
Nonetheless, Suslov believes the risk of military escalation remains relatively low. Trump tends to escalate only against weaker adversaries, where he does not face a credible threat of retaliation. The prospect of escalation turning into a war between major powers, especially nuclear states, is a deterrent Trump is unlikely to ignore, the expert believes.
He pointed to Trump’s past behaviour.
“Trump escalated against Iran precisely because he understood Iran was weakened and unlikely to mount a strong military response against the US. The situation with Russia is different,” Suslov asserted.
Regarding diplomatic relations, Suslov said that while the Trump administration officially supports maintaining dialogue regardless of tensions—unlike the Biden administration—the quality of such dialogue is likely to deteriorate if Trump enforces new anti-Russian sanctions or approves substantial arms shipments to Ukraine. This could lead to a temporary suspension of talks, he said.
In fact, bilateral dialogue between Russia and the US on complex issues, including normalising diplomatic relations, has already effectively stalled, the expert asserted. Trump’s recent announcements may extend this pause, with talks unlikely to resume soon, he added.
Russia’s Reaction
Russia will continue its special military operation in Ukraine regardless of US actions, intensifying offensive operations and strikes on military and defence industry targets, Suslov emphasised.
Russia currently sees military means as the only way to achieve its objectives, with diplomatic efforts unlikely to succeed in the foreseeable future, Suslov stated. He added that Russia will neither make concessions nor agree to freeze the conflict or a comprehensive ceasefire without its conditions being met, prioritising military victory above relations with the US, regardless of whether Trump is president.
“If Trump is willing to help—which, naturally, he is not—that would be good. If he obstructs, that is negative. But regardless, Russia will pursue its objectives without and despite Trump. That is the most important element of Russia’s response. How Russia responds directly to the US will depend on the nature of Trump’s forthcoming decisions—both the new anti-Russian measures and the character of any military aid to Ukraine,” Suslov concluded.
Russia has repeatedly stressed that the long-range weapons supplied by the West are being used by Ukrainian forces to target civilians on Russian territory and disrupt peace efforts.
Allowing Ukraine to use these weapons would fundamentally change the nature of the conflict, as Russian President Putin has previously stated.
"We will make the necessary decisions based on the threats we face," Putin said. "The key question is whether to consider NATO countries as directly involved in the military conflict."
"We will make the necessary decisions based on the threats we face," Putin said. "The key question is whether to consider NATO countries as directly involved in the military conflict."
