As Iran is seeking normalization with the Gulf countries, it is set to establish a brand new coalition with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to ensure maritime security.
This comes after the UAE withdrew from the US-led Gulf maritime coalition amid the ongoing assessment of effective security cooperation and the quest for safer and more reliable partnerships.
The coalition itself was established in 2019 and its major aim was to confront and contain Iran. It included 11 permanent members, which, however, were not significant naval powers, such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The US and the UK were those leading the grouping, which was intended to play a key role in case of a US attack on Iran.
What Does UAE’s Exit Mean for Region’s Geopolitics?
The Iranian Navy regularly inspects and captures vessels carrying oil in the zone of its exclusive economic interests in the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
This practice started as a response to the US and its allies sanctions regime against Tehran, which dates back to 2018, when the former Trump administration ditched the 2015 Iran deal and slapped unprecedented sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Grasping on this, foreign media rushed to suggest the Emirates were frustrated with Washington's failure to deal with the seizures of vessels in the Gulf. More to it, the US also withdrew the Patriot missile system and disrupted the supply of new fighter jets to Abu Dhabi.
As the UAE began the process of normalization of ties with Syria and Iran, it became easier to negotiate with neighbors rather than relying on Uncle Sam's promises.
But if one digs deeper, it actually signals that Abu Dhabi is actively seeking to diversify its ties from the United States and boost cooperation with Russia and China to secure its national interests, in what can be described as the Middle Eastern version of the 'Pivot to Asia'.
It's worth noting that when speaking about the emergence of new regional and international alliances, Iranian Rear Admiral Shahram Irani mentioned Iranian, Russian, and Chinese naval exercise that take place annually.
The eventual consequences may go as far as the US Navy's 5th Fleet losing its dominant position in the region.
Historic: Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement and What China Has to Do With It
Iran and Saudi Arabia have surely had a tumultuous history: both nations have almost 99% of the time been on opposite sides of regional disputes.
But history was made this year, as Riyadh and Tehran, following a lengthy two years of talks and five sessions of negotiations, have decided to finally restore diplomatic ties.
The rapprochement arrives amid a period of political and economic instability not only in the Middle East, but also worldwide.
Foreign Ministers Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud of Saudi Arabia and Hossein Amir Abdollahian of Iran have expressed optimism that the normalization will have positive consequences, with a focus on good neighborly relations and respect for regional state sovereignty.
But what really captures eveyrone's interests is that Beijing has emerged as a mediator for the agreement on normalization of ties between the two neighbors, which is set to take effect anytime soon.
China's significant economic interests with both Saudi Arabia and Iran imply that stability in the region is crucial for Beijing's own ambitions in the Gulf region.
At the same time, the development paves the way for a potential new geographical area for tensions between the US and China, as Beijing's pivot to the Middle East much akin to Washington's famous pivot to Asia-Pacific.