With the 2024 General Elections just 10 months away, preparations of all the parties are in full swing. The federally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already begun its preparations to counter the anti-incumbency factor and the Opposition is trying to corner it by highlighting the failures of the government.
As part of its preparations, the BJP is working on various fronts and spreading the message about development work it has started across the country whereas the like-minded opposition parties are uniting against it.
Apart from this, there have been certain organisational rejigs by the BJP as well as by the country’s main opposition party Congress. Several media reports have quoted sources saying that the BJP is also planning a cabinet reshuffle.
Last week, a meeting was held at the residence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the strategy for the parliamentary polls and assembly elections in five crucial states.
The meeting was attended by Federal Home Minister Amit Shah, the party’s national president Jagat Prakash Nadda and several senior members of the party.
However, the BJP seems to be ahead of the other parties regarding its preparations as Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday visited four states and dedicated several development projects to the nation.
To get a clearer picture of what's going on, Sputnik spoke to political expert Vinod Kumar Shukla to assess the BJP's preparations and how it is ahead of other parties, and its strategy for the polls.
BJP’s Strategy for Upcoming Polls
Talking about the BJP’s strategy for the imminent polls - especially the 2024 General Elections - Shukla said that the party will come up with different strategies depending on the region. For example, he said that to woo the voters in the south - especially the state of Tamil Nadu - the government had organised Kashi Tamil Sangamam (a confluence of Kashi and Tamil Nadu).
The month-long event was arranged with an objective to celebrate, reaffirm and rediscover the age-old links between Tamil Nadu and Kashi - two of the country’s most important and ancient seats of learning.
“As far as I have learnt, it is expected that the party will field some senior members from Tamil Nadu and also bargain for a greater number of seats with its ally, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in the polls. The party will try to win at least 10 parliamentary seats from the southern state as it will be a big achievement. State unit chief K Annamalai is aggressively furthering the party's agenda,” Shukla said.
The political expert also said that the party has also appointed G Kishan Reddy, a federal minister, as the state unit chief of Telangana where elections are due later this year. “Ever since he was named the party’s Telangana unit chief, he has been busy in the state up to the extent that he didn’t even attend the meeting of a parliamentary committee of which he is a crucial member. This shows the seriousness of the party members in their respective areas,” Shukla said.
Regarding other regions, he said that the party will be working on pushing aggressive Hindutva ideology in the states of north India such as Uttar Pradesh, and it will push its development agenda in north-east India.
How BJP is Ahead of Other Parties
On several occasions, various political experts have said that BJP is the political party in India which always seems to be in election mode and, as soon as one election is over, it immediately starts to prepare for the next one.
This is the one of the main reasons it always seems as though the party is ahead of other political parties. Reiterating the views, Shukla said that the BJP starts its preparations in advance and is extremely aggressive.
“The BJP seems to be ahead of the other political parties in its preparations for polls as they do it in a focused way. They analyse their strengths and weaknesses and then work on them. Along with this, they also dig deep into the issues on which they can cash in before the polls,” he said adding that along with this, the party also keeps its core issue of Hindutva intact.
Talking about the opposition, Shukla said the main reason the opposition is thought to be lagging behind in their preparations is that they don’t have a consensus.
“On the one hand they are trying to unite against the BJP for assembly polls whereas on the other hand they are competing with each other in states. Second, although there is clarity about leadership in the BJP, despite all the talk about how united the opposition is against the BJP, it is still not clear that who will lead it. Therefore, the voters of the opposition parties are always in a dilemma,” he said.
Talking specifically about the country’s main opposition party Congress, the political expert said that there is a lack of consistency in the party. “On one day the party seems to be aggressive, taking up the issues and cornering the government but on another day it seems to deviate from the real issues. However, the party has won elections in some states - but when we talk about General Elections then this inconsistency doesn’t work,” he said.
He believes that if the opposition parties - especially Congress - want to give the BJP a run for its money then it has to work strategically on policy level as well as leadership level.
Re-Building Alliance
The political expert also said that the BJP is also working to re-build its alliance ahead of the 2024 Parliamentary polls. “Former allies of the BJP such as the Sikh-centric Shiromani Akali Dal, the Telugu Desam Party, some of the political parties in Uttar Pradesh and many others, will team up with the BJP again ahead of polls. Therefore, the party is making an attempt to consolidate its alliance ahead of the 2024 General Elections to counter the opposition unity,” Shukla stated.
He also said there is a possibility that the Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena might also ally with the BJP again in due course.
“Judging by the present situation in Maharashtra, the BJP is likely to reap the benefit because if the Maha Vikas Aghadi (comprising the Uddhav Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena, Sharad Pawar group of Nationalist Congress Party and Congress) fights the elections then they will contesti it in a scattered way. I am saying this because, out of three parties of the MVA, two have witnessed a split.”
Shukla added that the party will work on strengthening its alliance and therefore contest the elections in much better managed way compared with the opposition.
BJP’s Social Engineering to Boost Its Prospects
Apart from all the above-mentioned considerations, the political expert said that BJP’s prospects for the 2024 General Elections have been propelled by its social engineering.
Last year in July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during a national executive committee meeting in Hyderabad, asked party workers to consider the interests of economically and socially backward Pasmanda Muslims.
After Modi’s call, the party started a Pasmanda Muslim outreach programme. After the launch of the programme, the party also planned an outreach scheme with all sections of society, especially minorities and marginalised communities.
This outreach programme was planned after Modi called upon party workers during the national executive committee meeting in January and is designed to reach the greatest number of people ahead of the key parliamentary polls.
Apart from this, the BJP fielded a tribal woman Droupadi Murmu as its presidential candidate and Jagdeep Dhankhar, a politician from Jat community, as its vice-presidential candidate.
“The BJP has been working towards consolidating votes from all sections of the society. This is evident from its decision during the Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections. By fielding Murmu as its presidential candidate, the party aimed at reaching out to the tribal community in states such as Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh whereas by fielding Dhankhar as its vice-presidential candidate, it was aiming to quell the negativity that boiled up during the farmers’ protest,” Shukla said.
Similarly, the outreach programmes that the party has been conducting since last year are likely to yield good results in the 2024 polls, the political expert reckoned.
However, he said that it is too early to say what percentage of Muslim voters will vote for the BJP but the number is likely to increase as the party is aggressively reaching out to the minority community.
Though the Parliamentary polls are still 10 months away, the BJP's aggressive approach and its well-organised campaign regarding almost all the issues, gives it a clear edge over the opposition parties.