The combined share of BRICS' economies in global GDP is forecast to rise to 30 percent from January 2024, India’s state-owned bank State Bank of India (SBI) has said in its new report.
The report, How BRICS+6 Triumphs Good Global Economics by SBI Research, has been published after the expansion of the BRICS grouping to include six new countries — Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
New BRICS members
© Sputnik
Before its expansion, BRICS’ economies share to the global GDP stood at 26 percent.
The report states that the combined GDP share of the six new countries would be around 11 percent of the BRICS’ GDP—Saudi Arabia would contribute four percent, while Argentina, the UAE and Iran would contribute two percent each.
The share of Iran’s GDP to BRICS' overall GDP is forecast to be one percent, while Ethiopia’s is expected to have a negligible effect.
The SBI Research report notes that that China has dominated the grouping in terms of GDP, weighing for almost 70 percent of the BRICS’ GDP.
India contributes 11 percent to BRICS’ overall GDP, Russia accounts for eight percent, Brazil for seven percent, while South Africa’s share averages around 2 percent.
The combined populations of BRICS countries as a share of global population in 2024 will be 46 percent from 40 percent before expansion, the report says.
It says that the share of BRICS’ economies in global foreign exchange reserves would rise by 600 basis points from 39 percent before expansion to 45 percent next year.
BRICS Expansion to Alter ‘Global Energy Dynamics’
The SBI report reckons that the expansion of BRICS to include energy-rich Saudi Arabia and Iran, on top of Russia, would have a significant impact on “intra-bloc energy dynamics”.
The BRICS economies are forecast to account for 43 percent of the global oil production, from their current share of 20 percent.
The report states that BRICS would soon turn into both a major producer and consumer of oil, being home to the world’s biggest markets and energy importers such as India and China.
The Indian banker’s report projects that an expanded BRICS would be in a “good position” to explore the use of a "BRICS payment systems” for energy payments.
It noted that the global share of predominant global currencies — US Dollar, Euro and the Japanese Yen — has “considerably” decreased in the last two years.
The SBI report underscores the point that “de-dollarization” is a “writing on the wall”.