Why is Pakistan Expanding Its Nuclear Arsenal Amid Economic Uncertainty?

Despite ongoing efforts to reduce nuclear weapons arsenals since the Cold War, the world’s combined inventory of warheads remains at a high level, as nine countries possess some 12,500 warheads as of 2023.

Russia and the United States own approximately 89 percent of the world’s total stockpile of nuclear weapons. Although other countries have just a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security, many of these states are expanding their arsenals.

Pakistan Increases Nuclear Stockpile

Last week, a report by the Federation of American Scientists revealed that Pakistan is continuing to gradually increase its nuclear stockpiles with more warheads, delivery systems, and a growing fissile material production industry.

Commercial satellite images of Pakistan's Army garrisons and Air Force bases reportedly point to the presence of new launcher facilities that are linked to its nuclear forces. Currently, Pakistan has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads, but by 2025 this number may rise to 200 warheads.

Back in 1999, the US Defence Intelligence Agency projected that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020, but several new weapons systems have been fielded and developed since then, resulting in a much larger stockpile than predicted.

The recent surge in nuclear activities comes at a time when Pakistan is grappling with serious economic and political challenges. Hence, this has raised some concerns as to why the South Asian nation is expanding its arsenal at this time.

Sputnik India spoke to a former defence attaché in Pakistan's Armed Forces to get clarity on the situation. He asked to remain anonymous for security reasons.

"One of the primary reasons behind Pakistan's nuclear pursuits lies in its strategic calculus. This region has been a hotbed of geopolitical tensions, primarily driven by Pakistan's longstanding discord with India. So the nuclear weapons program serves as a deterrent against potential threats", the official said.

Pakistan views nuclear deterrence as essential to maintaining regional stability and safeguarding its sovereignty.

According to the official, Pakistan and India's ongoing territorial disputes, historical conflicts, and occasional border skirmishes have fuelled Pakistan's apprehensions.

"The development and deployment of nuclear weapons provide a level of security and deterrence that, from Pakistan's perspective, is necessary to counterbalance India's military might", the former defence attaché explained.

A Pakistani Air Force F-16 fighter jet flies during a military parade to mark Pakistan's Republic Day in Islamabad, Pakistan, Thursday, March 23, 2017.

Nationalist Sentiment

Apart from the perceived external threats, there are domestic political considerations that play a factor in Pakistan's nuclear decisions.

With the ongoing political turmoil within the country, it is highly likely that the leaders in Islamabad understand that portraying themselves as strong defenders of national security can bolster their political standing.

"Expansion of the nuclear arsenal can be seen as a way to appeal to a nationalist sentiment within the country, even during times of economic hardship", according to the official.

However, considering that the country is currently facing serious economic constraints, some critics feel that pouring resources into nuclear expansion during such a time diverts attention and much-needed funds away from the economic and social development projects.

"Pakistan has faced persistent challenges, including a soaring debt burden, inflation, unemployment and fiscal deficits. Nonetheless, the military leaders argue that the nuclear program is a matter of national security and non-negotiable, regardless of economic constraints", the official stressed.

A Pakistani-made Shaheen-III missile, that is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is carried on a trailer during a military parade in connection with Pakistan National Day celebrations, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Thursday, March 25, 2021.

International Implications

Pakistan's nuclear ambitions have international implications. They raise concerns about the potential for an arms race in the South Asia region and the possibility of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands.

However, in that regard, the official stressed that the country’s nuclear program is heavily guarded and there are many security protocols in place for its safety.

Global powers, including neighbouring India, have recently expressed their concerns regarding the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, stressing that the safety and security of these weapons is a shared responsibility, especially considering the presence of extremist elements within the country.

Nevertheless, Pakistan's decision to expand its nuclear weapons arsenal amid economic difficulties is a complex issue rooted in its strategic concerns, perceived threats from outside and domestic politics.

“The situation highlights the delicate balancing act that countries often face when prioritizing security interests over economic challenges”, the official said.

He added that going forward, diplomatic efforts especially between Pakistan and India are of utmost importance in order to address the underlying regional tensions.

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