Russia’s ‘Resurgence’ Welcomed in India's Neighbourhood Amid US Pressure
Over the past year, Russia has actively sought to strengthen its connections with South Asian nations. Experts, interviewed by Sputnik India, delved into the perspectives of these nations regarding Russia's escalating influence in the region.
SputnikIndian experts shared insights with Sputnik India, highlighting a favorable reception of Russia's expanding presence in India's immediate neighborhood—from Myanmar to Bangladesh and Pakistan.
This positive outlook comes against the backdrop of growing apprehensions about the United States' policies towards South Asian nations.
“The special relationship between India and Russia has largely remained intact in spite of pressure by the US and the European Union (EU) on New Delhi to cut down its relationship with Moscow. But what we are now witnessing are emerging overtures between Russia, on the one hand, and Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan,” stated Sankalp Gurjar, an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at India's Manipal Academy of Higher Education.
The academic explained that all the south Asian nations were seeking to engage with Russia to advance their respective “national interest”.
Gurjar further recalled that Moscow had always been a
“key player in south Asian geopolitics”.
"Since the colonial era, Moscow has been considered as a great power located right across south Asia's borders," he recounted.
He cited Moscow’s decade-long military campaign in support of erstwhile Democratic Republic of Afghanistan in the 1980s as a major factor which affected the security dynamics of the region.
During the Bangladesh’s War of Liberation in 1971, the Russian Pacific Fleet’s posturing in aborting a planned naval intervention by America’s Seventh Fleet in the Bay of Bengal was viewed as a crucial factor which decisively tilted the war against Pakistan, back then an ally of now disbanded Washington-backed Southeast Asian Treaty Organisation (SEATO).
Commodore (retired) Seshadri Vasan, an Indian Navy veteran and the Director of Chennai-based think tank Centre for China Studies (C3S), reckoned that a “historical mistrust” towards the US in south Asia has been a major factor driving Russian “resurgence” in the region.
“During the Cold War era, the US was seen as exerting pressure on the developing nations to align with its geopolitical priorities. There has been a historical discontentment with American policy among several South Asian nations. And Russia has cashed in on that sentiment and forged closer ties with several South Asian nations, including India and Bangladesh,” Vasan explained.
“At times, India had also found itself of the receiving end of such American pressure,” the Indian think-tanker added.
He said that Russia’s increasing engagements with
Global South, including the south Asian nations, were being driven by Moscow’s need to
maintain its economic growth to recompense for loss of revenue from EU and western countries.
“Russia will have to try and reach out to more developing nations which are willing to receive its technological and military exports and commodities through credit lines, grants and other forms of collaborations,” Vasan stated.
Sputnik India takes a stock of Moscow’s growing ties with Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. We also try to analyse how India, the predominant power in the Indian Ocean Region, views Moscow’s growing engagement with other nations.
Bangladesh
As reported by Sputnik India previously, views towards Russia among supporters of the ruling Awami League have grown more favourable since
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina this year accused Washington of trying to
incite a “regime change” by toppling her government.
“The increasing American pressure on Sheikh Hasina's government ahead of the election next January seems have to driven Dhaka and Moscow closer than they already were,” opined Gurjar.
The Biden administration’s visa policy targeting Bangladesh’s ruling party politicians and law-enforcement officials hasn’t gone down well with the Hasina government either.
Moreover, recent statements by US Ambassador in Dhaka, Peter Haas, have been construed by the Awami League as tacit backing for opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the upcoming election.
Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova last week raised concerns about Washington’s attempts to “influence” Bangladesh’s internal political process.
Zakharova pointed towards the role of Haas in meeting opposition leaders and allegedly plotting anti-government protests.
Besides the political support being extended for Dhaka, Gurjar also noted that Moscow had been helping Dhaka develop its civil nuclear power programme through concessional financing.
The
Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is the country’s first civil nuclear power facility, being developed with a $11.3 billion Russian loan.
"Russian civil nuclear technology is cost-effective and has been offered without significant strings attached to the developing nations," underscored Vasan, adding that India has also been a major beneficiary of civil nuclear cooperation with Moscow.
Myanmar
Gurjar asserted that Myanmar’s ruling military government, which came to power through a coup in 2021, has been cultivating proximate defence and economic ties with Moscow.
The military government of Myanmar has been under the blow of western sanctions. It has predominantly relied on its biggest neighbour China for economic and
defence cooperation.
“The junta also wants to diversify its dependence away from China, which has been a major economic and security partner for it,” the academic underlined.
Gurjar highlighted that Russian military support was critical as the junta battles the forces of combined opposition across the nation.
In September, Myanmar received its first shipment of two Sukhoi-30 fighter jets, a year after the two nations signed a deal for six fighter jets.
Pakistan
Both Vasan and Gurjar note that Russia’s growing cooperation with Pakistan, particularly in the
realm of energy, is a "new development" in the geopolitics of the Subcontinent.
In June, Pakistan recieved its first-ever shipment of Russian crude and is in the process of finalising a long-term energy cooperation pact with Moscow.
Vasan stated that Moscow’s energy exports to Pakistan benefitted both the nations, but they could in the long-term be a source of stable and affordable energy supplies for Islamabad.
“In the area of energy, the south Asian nations, much like other Global South countries, would try to source energy at the best possible price amid an ongoing global churn in commodity supply chains in the wake of the special military operation and subsequent western sanctions,” the strategic affairs expert said.
Vasan described India as a "classic example in this context".
"It has become the
second-biggest global importer of Russian oil and has also become a big exporter of refined fuels to European Union (EU)," the expert stressed.
Russia and Pakistan fought on the opposing sides during the Soviet-Afghan War and Islamabad was a “major non-NATO ally” of the US during the War on Terror which ended in Taliban catapulting back to power in Kabul in 2021.
However, differences between the US and Pakistan started to emerge during the tenure of
former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was toppled in a
US-backed no-confidence motion in 2021.
During the latter end of his leadership, Khan grew increasingly critical of US’ policy towards Afghanistan. Khan accused the US of turning Pakistan into a “slave” without invading it.
Gurjar said that Islamabad was looking cultivate closer ties with Moscow to balance off “American influence” on its foreign policy.
India's Perspective on Russia's 'Resurgence' in South Asia
Gurjar remarked that India had little or no reason whatsoever to be concerned about Moscow’s growing involvement in the region.
“Russia respects India's sensitives in South Asia,” he reckoned, noting New Delhi's security concerns vis-a-vis China. "The India-Russia ties have remained strong from the Cold War and the trend continues till date, despite New Delhi's growing strategic ties with the US," the academic added.
However, he cautioned a growing Russia-Pakistan relationship, particularly in the sphere of defence, would be viewed as a "point of concern" in India.
"The only relationship that Russia is developing with a south Asian nation which could create some unease in India is that with Pakistan," said the academic.
Gurjar also said that Russian and Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) navies had been exercising together in the western Pacific Ocean amid a growing global strategic coordination.
"A similar potential Russia-China naval cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region, if it ever happens, would be keenly watched by India," the geopolitical pundit offered.