Imran Khan's Legal Setbacks: Implications For Upcoming Elections In Pakistan

Imran Khan, the Ex-PM of Pakistan, has been in custody since August 5, initially convicted for failing to disclose assets obtained from the sale of gifts from foreign dignitaries intended for a state repository, and subsequently in a case involving the disclosure of state secrets.

Following his disqualification from parliament due to the case involving gifts, Imran Khan filed an appeal in the Islamabad High Court in October of last year, challenging the ban on his participation in electoral politics. However, in January of this year, Khan sought to withdraw the appeal and filed a subsequent plea in the Lahore High Court. The Lahore High Court granted protective bail to Khan in multiple cases before his imprisonment in March.

The chief justice of the Islamabad High Court expressed his disapproval of this move, stating that the case should be heard where the appeal was first filed. The court has now formally rejected Khan's request to withdraw his petition but has to deliver a verdict on whether the election commission should lift its ban on Khan's participation in elections.

Adnan Aamir, a political analyst, researcher, and journalist, stated to Sputnik that "Given the multiple charges against Ex-PM Imran Khan, if he is acquitted in one case, he is likely to be implicated in another. Considering recent events, such as his resignation from the party chairmanship, it seems unlikely that Khan will be released from jail after the end of the election season. Even Khan’s hearings are held in jail."

Pakistani Canadians showed up in large numbers in Toronto for a peaceful protest against Imran Khan's arrest

Major Allegations Against Imran Khan

Imran Khan, and his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), held power from August 2018 to April 2022 until he was removed through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. In August 2022, Imran Khan confronted with accusations of purchasing gifts and things from the state gift depository, Toshakhana, without disclosing them in his declarations to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

Although the Islamabad High Court (IHC) suspended his conviction, and jail sentence on August 29 and granted him bail, but after some time, Imran Khan was detained for his alleged involvement in a Cipher Case related to a missing diplomatic document during his tenure as prime minister.

Paramilitary soldiers from Frontier Corps stand guard outside their headquarters, where supporters of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan protest against the arrest of their leader

Twists and Turns

However, in previous court hearings on Monday’s trail, former prime minister Imran Khan pledged to summon the country's ex-military chief and a U.S. embassy representative during his ongoing trial for allegedly leaking state secrets.

"I will include General Bajwa and U.S. embassy officials as witnesses ‘in the case’. General Bajwa did everything on Donald Lu's directives," Khan was quoted as telling the judge.

Similarly, Imran Riaz Khan, a journalist, anchorperson, and activist who got missing and returned after 4 months, once said to media, "In Pakistan, political systems and governments are made, toppled, and changed under the instructions of foreign powers along with Pakistani establishments, and I am not ready to bow down before the puppet and rotten system.”

Aamir, a political analyst, further told Sputnik, “It is crystal clear that the role of the military is dominating in Pakistan’s political setup, with the military backing the recent caretaker government of Pakistan and doing all this against ex-PM Imran Khan.”

Overall, the ex-PM Imran Khan is currently in Rawalpindi's Adiala Jail.

Dr. Tughral Yamin, researcher at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad, former Dean of the Centre for International Peace and Stability, former Brigadier of Pakistan’s Army, and political analyst, told Sputnik, “The political fate of former prime minister Imran Khan will depend upon the court verdicts of the case under which he is being tried. PTI’s showing in the elections scheduled for February 8 next year will definitely be affected if their charismatic leader is not able to participate in the polls.

In the aftermath of Imran Khan's imprisonment, the PTI, the second-largest party in Pakistan, has witnessed a wave of party leaders resigning due to a government and establishment crackdown. Recently, Gohar Ali Khan, a lawyer and barrister, emerged as the new PTI chairperson after an internal party election.

Supporters of the Pakistan Democratic Movement, an alliance of opposition parties, attend a rally outside the head office of Election Commission of Pakistan, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021.

Upcoming 2024 Elections in Pakistan

As per the official notification, the country's major elections will be held on February 8, 2024.

Professor Yamin told Sputnik, “Political activity is gaining momentum, and all parties are trying to make alliances and carry out seat adjustments. Parties are playing safe and are awarding tickets to the ‘electable’ candidates. Party workers are also being mobilized, and banners are appearing on the roads and streets. The next election is going to be hotly contested. For all three mainstream political parties, it will be a matter of survival. It is too early to predict the results for now.”

Pakistan, nonetheless, is currently grappling with a profound socio-political and economic crisis and is presently governed by an interim administration led by caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar. The country is scheduled to conduct general elections in February 2024, which is a three-month delay from the original timeline.

Aamir further told Sputnik, "However, the country is confronting various bottlenecks in the shape of security issues, especially at the western front Balochistan, and weather constraints because in February, the weather will be cold. Nonetheless, I think nothing will be changed; elections will be held. They are just using delaying tactics.”

All in all, the country of 241 million people has seen inflation hit record highs, while the security situation has also worsened dramatically in the last year. Statistics reveal nearly 600 attacks in 11 months took place in the country, an increase of 81 percent from last year during the corresponding period.

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