On the first day of his visit on Monday, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, accompanied by Indian Ambassador to Moscow Pavan Kapoor, met members of the Russian strategic community.
Jaishankar said in a social media post that he discussed the "importance of rebalancing and emergence of multipolarity" during the interaction.
"Geopolitics and strategic convergence will always keep India-Russia ties on a positive trajectory," asserted Jaishankar, speaking about the 'Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership' between the two nations.
The critical year-end visit of the Indian foreign minister takes place against the backdrop of attempts by the US and other western nations to pressure India into draw down its relations with Russia.
US Attempts to Disrupt India-Russia Relations
The Biden administration has told foreign governments, including India’s, that it is not time for "business as usual" with Russia, as the US President makes no secret about its efforts of trying to isolate Russia.
Since the start of Ukraine conflict, the Biden administration, in coordination with G7, has been seeking to disrupt Russia's powerful military-industrial complex through unilateral sanctions and export control measures.
In 12 rounds of coordinated sanctions against Russia, the EU and western allies have cut off major Russian banks from the US-dollar dominated SWIFT Network, thus creating hurdles for India's trade relations with Russia.
The 12th round of EU sanctions unveiled in coordination with G7 and US month, imposes a "prohibition on the direct or indirect import, purchase or transfer of diamonds from Russia".
These decisions have directly affected Indian interests. For instance, both the governments have acknowledged that billions of dollars in payments remained stuck in banks due to difficulties being experienced by Indian and Russian businesses to transfer payments because of western restrictions.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said that India and Russia are developing an "alternative" to SWIFT and working towards moving away from dollar-denominated trade.
The Indian government has also expressed serious concerns about West's import restrictions on Russian diamonds, a move that threatens the livelihoods of around 2 million Indian diamond trade workers.
Russia, the biggest diamond producer globally, has been a major source of rough diamonds for India and has fuelled the South Asian country's position as the world's top exporter of polished diamonds.
Western restrictions on Russian military-industrial complex have caused delays in exports in Russian defence exports to India, as acknowledged by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in its testimony to a committee of the Indian Parliament. The testimony was published this year.
Amid these concerns, the Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov said that the five batteries of S-400 surface-to-air missiles will be delivered to India on time by early next year.
Significantly, the countries signed an "Agreement on the Programme for Military Technical Cooperation" for 2021-2031 in December 2021 during the inaugural 2+2 Dialogue.
Besides the supply of S-400 systems, New Delhi and Moscow are involved in licensed production of T-90 tanks and Su-30 MKI fighter jets.
Russia has also helped India to establish manufacturing facilities for AK-203 rifles and BrahMos missiles, in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to attain self-reliance in defence production.
Currently, Russia is the biggest supplier of weapons and systems to India, accounting for 45 percent of New Delhi’s purchases in 2017-22 period, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In the global context, Moscow has expressed concerns about US policy towards Indo-Pacific, especially its ongoing attempts to drive India into an anti-China camp.
So far, New Delhi has resisted these American-led efforts. It has refused to characterise the Quad grouping as a formal alliance. Moreover, New Delhi has so far rejected any American interference in its ongoing border dispute with China in the eastern Ladakh region.
India-Russia Relations Difficult to Disrupt
Aleksei Zakharov, a visiting fellow at New Delhi-based foreign policy think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), told Sputnik India that New Delhi has demonstrated to the western powers that it won't turn away from Russia.
“I think there has been a change of approach from the US' side and the US now shows more understanding of the India-Russia legacy relationship that is difficult to disrupt,” stated Zakharov.
The expert stressed that energy trade seemed to be replacing defence as a “major pillar” of India-Russia ties, evidenced by the fact that Russia now ranks as the biggest supplier of crude to New Delhi.
“The oil trade is booming, Russia's exports of other energy resources like coal and Liquefied Natura Gas (LNG) have been also on the rise,” remarked Zakharov.
In fact, Russia-India trade turnover has crossed $50 billion, making Moscow as one of India's five biggest trading partners for the first time in history.
Indian Army veteran Major General (retired) Shashi Bhushan Asthana, the director of New Delhi-based think tank United Service of Institution of India (USO), told Sputnik India that the US wont be able to “enforce any kind of decisions” on India.
"The Americans have been trying to reach out to India on certain issues... However, India has maintained its strategic balancing act to ensure that India-Russia relations aren't affected. India has been both conscious and cautious to ensure that India-Russia ties don't get impacted due to our ties with the West,” said Asthana.
Strategic Message of Jaishankar’s Visit
For Zakharov, Jaishankar’s visit would send out clear signal to Russia that Moscow was still an “important partner” for New Delhi.
“The visit's perception in western capitals will depend on the practical outcomes of talks—whether there are any significant deals between Russia and India that may be seen as a breakthrough—allowing to get around numerous challenges on the way of trade and economic cooperation or it is just a never-ending work in progress,” the think-tanker reckoned.
Asthana said that Jaishankar’s visit sends out a clear message to the rest of the world that New Delhi would continue to exercise its “strategic autonomy” in its national interest.
“India will continue to do everything which is in its strategic and national interest. And India knows how to do the strategic balancing act,” the veteran stated, adding that Russia has and will continue to be a “tried and tested partner” for New Delhi, be it in realm of defence or on other regional or global issues.
Asthana also stressed the need for a “review” of India-Russia ties to calibrate with changing geopolitical realities. He expressed hope that Jaishankar’s visit would definitely take stock of the current global situation.
“In the context of the ongoing geopolitical situation, Jaishankar's visit is taking place at a very crucial stage. Besides the Ukraine conflict, the west has diverted its attention to the Israel-Hamas war. New flashpoints seem to be opening up, including in the Red Sea. Under these circumstances, a review of India-Russia relationship is very much needed. A clear understanding of India-Russia relationship in line with the new global realities is very much in order,” suggested Asthana.
The geopolitical expert reckoned that a clear understanding was necessary on how India and Russia would like to “navigate their ties” in view of differing perceptions over the role of China.
“A clear understanding is also required on how to navigate the bilateral relationship with growing strategic convergence between China and Russia and in view of our own border differences with China,” Asthana opined.
What is Driving India and Russia Ties?
Besides convergence on bilateral issues such as defence and energy cooperation as well as the need to move away from US dollar, Asthana highlighted that India and Russia shared congruence of views on a number of geopolitical issues.
“Certainty, both India and Russia are in favour of establishing a multipolar world order rather than a unipolar or a bipolar order. Secondly, India's and Russia's position on the Israel-Hamas conflict is very convergent in the sense that we both support a ceasefire and dialogue towards a two-state solution,” specified the expert.
He further noted that both New Delhi and Moscow were in favour of increasing the role and say of developing nations in global decision-making.
“Both of us share a common objective of reforming and expanding the UN Security Council to make it more representative,” the Indian veteran said, adding that both countries had also been backing expansion of multilateral groupings such as BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and G20.
He listed out that both the nations have similar concerns on terrorism emanating from the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
“The new thing that has happened since the start of the Ukraine conflict is that Russia has turned its focus towards Indo-Pacific in a bid to expand commercial relations with countries like China and India. It is a major shift that has happened due to the Ukraine conflict,” Asthana concluded.