What Impact Could Row With India Have on Maldives?

Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Union Territory of Lakshadweep, an archipelago of 36 islands, ministers in Male made derogatory remarks about the Indian leader, escalating tensions between India and the Maldives.

The Maldives government suspended three deputy ministers, including Mariyam Shiuna, for their comments about Modi. In a statement following India’s protest, the Maldivian government said the "opinions are personal and do not represent the views of the Government of Maldives".

A major uproar was sparked by the Maldivian ministers' comments on social media, prompting many Indians to cancel their reservations and airline tickets to the Maldives.

Against this backdrop, experts examine India-Maldives ties and evaluate the possible impact of the row on relations between the two nations.

Meaning of India for Maldives' Defence Sector

Major General BK Sharma, Director General of the United Service Institute India (USI), highlighted the defence and security sector as the most important aspect of the cooperation between New Delhi and Male.

“Defence and Security have been the cornerstone of India-Maldives cooperation since 1988. Following the signing of the Action Plan for Defence in April 2016, this foundation was further strengthened” Sharma told Sputnik India.

Dr Gulbin Sultana, an associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), also noted the importance of defence cooperation for Male, saying that India trained over 1,500 Maldivian military personnel in the past 10 years.

“The Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) receives over 70% of its defence training from India. In addition to providing air assets for air surveillance, India has trained more than 1,500 MNDF soldiers in the past ten years,” Sultana told Sputnik India.

Economic Aspect: Maldives' Largest Development Partner

While discussing the economic part of India-Maldives relations, Sultana emphasised that India has been Male's largest development partner for the past five years.

“In 2021, bilateral trade surpassed $300 million for the first time. Being an import-dependent country, the Maldives is dependent on India for a wide range of necessities, including eggs, vegetables, rice, wheat flour, sugar, potatoes, onions, and even building materials and some critical products such as river sands,” the pundit said.

Based on data sourced from the Maldives' tourism ministry, Sultana mentioned that “Indian citizens comprised 11.2 percent of the 1.84 million tourists that visited the island nation in 2023. Indian tourists make a significant contribution, especially at this time when the Maldives' economy is declining due to COVID-19, and the country's tourism industry is just getting recovered. The Maldives must avoid losing any of their tourist markets at this crucial juncture”.

India is far more important to the Maldives than the Maldives is to India, Sharma asserted, adding that “for the simple reason that the Maldives face an existential threat from sea level rise — even a one-meter rise would cause the entire country to collapse — and India would be the first to respond because of its proximity to the Maldives. For instance, not too long ago, the Maldives experienced a severe water scarcity, and India had supplied them with enough water.”

The general stated that “Maldives is also susceptible to some non-state actors who may be motivated by extreme ideology or by past events that resulted in the overthrow of the government. For instance, India's assistance in 1988 to prevent a coup attempt against Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the president of the Maldives at the time.”

What Is the Geopolitical Aspect of the India-Maldives Row?

“Beyond the Maldives' status as a rental state, India has more to offer the Maldives. They will get caught in the crossfire of great power politics if they aspire to be a state that rents out its territory to foreign regional powers, which would be extremely harmful to their development and national security”, Sharma noted.

In terms of remarks made on Modi, the general emphasised that “these are some inexperienced ministers who lack political and diplomatic maturity and just by playing to the gallery. Certain elements are utilising the India card or lobby to undermine one regime in order to topple another; India should take note of this, as the current regime is likely using the China card more to appease the public and justify its existence and purportedly independent foreign policy”.

“Since India is the Maldives' leading development partner and first responder, bilateral ties will continue. India will adopt a symptomatic stance and not allow this issue to damage the existing relationship with the Maldives” Sharma said.

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