How Middle East Conflagration Impacts India's Military & Economy
The Middle East has been witnessing an escalating crisis since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on 7 October. Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a hunt on ships linked to Israel in order to end the war. The US and UK, who support Israel, launched an operation against the Houthis in response to the latter’s action in the Red Sea.
SputnikThe impact of the Middle East crisis and the subsequent American and British action is being felt by India both militarily and economically, two strategic affairs pundits have said.
Following the launch of Israel's ground operation in the Gaza Strip after Palestinian militant movement Hamas' cross-border attack on the Jewish state, Yemen's Houthis began attacking Israel-bound/origin ships in the Red Sea, leading to heightened tensions in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) neighbourhood.
Will Iran Join Battle Against US and UK Forces?
Over the last two weeks, the situation has become more dangerous, as American and British forces are now directly involved militarily with regional heavyweight Iran.
In the past 48 hours, Iran has not only hurled missiles at US bases in Iraq and Washington-allied militias in Syria, but also claims to have destroyed an Israeli Mossad intelligence agency regional headquarters in Erbil.
Tehran also carried out attacks against a Baloch militant organization in Pakistan, irking Islamabad to the extent that it expelled the Iranian envoy and recalled its ambassador from Iran.
Against this backdrop, Dr. Jawaid Iqbal, a professor of West Asian and North African studies at India's Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), underlined that New Delhi has faced a direct and significant impact through the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Conflict Impacts New Delhi's Middle East Trade
Igbal highlighted that attacks on ships linked with Israel have gained significance after a missile was launched by Houthi rebels on 23 December on the commercial ship MV Chem Pluto, docking at Mangalore port.
"While the attacks were initially limited to ships with direct links to Israel, the Houthis are now targeting ships that have no direct connection to Israel — such as those destined for India — to enhance the scale of disruptions towards global trade", the academic told Sputnik India on Wednesday.
He pointed out that for India, the MV Chem Pluto incident did not take place in isolation. Another vessel, the MV Sai Baba, reported a drone attack in the Red Sea while on its way to India on 23 December.
Given this context, the former dean of AMU's Department of International Relations noted that the Indian Navy has systematically been ramping up surveillance and its presence in the region to protect India's shipping interests and ensure the safety of
crews, fleet, and freight.
Indian Navy's ISR Missions in Red and Arabian Seas
"For this, the Navy has deployed four destroyers of the Project 15A and 15B class to mitigate the threat from drone and missile attacks. Further, the Indian Navy has also ensured that Boeing P8I long-range anti-submarine aircraft, Dorniers, and helicopters are available for reconnaissance", Iqbal underlined.
On the other hand, Kabir Taneja, a fellow at New Delhi-based think tank the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), acknowledged that the Middle East crisis is stretching India's naval assets.
"The fact that New Delhi has deployments in the South China Sea, and with QUAD countries, the confrontation between Iran and its allies and the US-led Western forces in the Middle East, really stretches the Indian Navy and makes its naval presence thin", Taneja said in a conversation with Sputnik India.
He added that beyond the point of posturing, he doesn't see that there is any sort of kinetic will for India to get involved too
directly in the crisis.
New Delhi Sends Message Through Deployment of Warships
The think tanker explained that the idea of deploying these ships is basically to send a signal that the Indian Navy will protect Indian freight carriers and vessels that are transporting oil from Middle East countries to ports on the Indian seaboard.
Nonetheless, what spooked the Indian Navy and the country's government is the fact that MV Chem Pluto, which was attacked a couple of weeks back, was targeted approximately 200 nautical miles from the Indian Coast. That's very far away from the Red Sea, Taneja opined.
"To make sure that there is at least messaging there that India will disallow a spillover of what is happening in the Red Sea to the wider Arabian Sea region, that is the reason why the Indian Navy's installations are kept there", he maintained.
Besides affecting India's naval deployments, the situation in the Middle East has also hurt the country's economy.
Rise in Cost of Indian Imports and Exports
Indian exporters are facing rising costs due to the Middle East crisis, with the cost of Indian exports having more than doubled due to the crisis, Iqbal revealed.
The geopolitics specialist reckoned that 95 percent of vessels have had to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope on the southern tip of Africa as major shipping lines have stopped or suspended Red Sea operations.
"The recurrent attacks on merchant ships have a negative impact on the global supply chain and would lead to a $10-20 increase in oil prices for oil-importing countries like India, which could have negative effects on its economy", Iqbal expressed.
Russia Could Come to India's Rescue
Upon being asked if India could make an alternative arrangement if its oil shipments from the MENA region continue to remain affected for a long period, the international relations analyst emphasized that New Delhi should sign a long-term agreement with Russia for the supply of oil. Additionally, India could look for oil supply from newer sources, like Mozambique.
"For exports too, Russia is an important market for India. India can ramp up its export to Russia which is currently facing the brunt of Western sanctions. In addition, India can tap emerging economies in the African continent which are located away from the Red Sea for its exports", Iqbal concluded.