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Ticking Bomb: Escalating Tensions in Middle East Following Hamas Chief's Killing

Amid escalating pressures and concerns regarding Iran's image, there is a significant likelihood of Tehran launching retaliatory actions against Israel in the upcoming days.
Sputnik
Iran is preparing retaliatory actions against Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
The specifics of Iran's planned strike remain unclear, but in April Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel after the deaths of key Iranian commanders in Syria.
Israel and the US claimed to have intercepted 99 percent of the projectiles, but Israeli Air Force bases near the Gaza Strip were hit.
Tehran's retaliation for Haniyeh's killing could involve multiple attacks from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen potentially targeting Israel as soon as this weekend.
French news agency AFP claimed that Tehran and its allies are preparing coordinated actions aimed at deterring Israel while avoiding a full-scale war.

A leader from the Iranian-allied the Islamic Resistance of Iraq told media that "Iran will lead the initial response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni, and Syrian factions, targeting military objectives," followed by a second wave of attacks from Hezbollah.

A New Wave of Retaliation Against Israel

Iran's acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri reportedly conveyed a message to Qatar warning that any Arab nation opening its airspace for Israeli strikes against Iran would become a legitimate target for attack. Iran has also cautioned the US through its allies that any hostile acts could lead to significant strikes against US assets in the region.

"Now, after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who had a significant following and the guest of Tehran, Iran, finds itself in a precarious position, compelled to respond harshly," Syed Fraz Naqvi, a political analyst and Head of the Iran Programme at Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad told Sputnik.

Speaking to Sputnik, Aimen Jamil, a pundit of Iranian affairs and a correspondent on Middle East at Global Defense Insight, said Iran’s' response will be much more calculated and will be strong this time it might involve the collective response from the Axis of resistance, as Haniyeh's death was a major setback for Palestine. All fronts might be opened together and target Israel and US military bases in the region.

"This time the response might involve the heavy artillery. Iran has already given the message to Israel that they are capable of targeting them directly when their embassy was targeted in Syria few months back," She said.

Iran's Security Dilemma Pushes Towards Conflict In MENA

Assistant Professor Hafeez Ullah Khan, chairman of Global Policy and research institute and regional analyst told Sputnik that Haniyeh's assassination raises questions about Iran's security capabilities and tarnishes Tehran's previously soft image.

"This incident has sparked a debate regarding Iran's seriousness, and capability including speculations about whether the attack was orchestrated by Iran itself, fueling sectarian tensions. Given the internal and external pressures, a retaliatory response from Iran seems likely," Khan said. "However, there is significant criticism directed at Israel for allegedly violating international law."

But Naqvi warned that upcoming attacks are likely to occur on multiple fronts, with potential direct assaults from Iran and coordinated actions from its allies in the Middle East — Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen's Ansarallah. Those forces could attack Israel one at a time or all at once.

"Most importantly, Tehran's strategy focuses on targeting and eliminating the strategic assets of its enemies, suggesting that Israel may continue to face ongoing threats," Naqvi said.

Israeli news site Ynet said Israelis were bracing for potential attacks as early as Saturday, following Haniyeh's funeral in Qatar on Friday. They are on high alert for a "broad attack" coordinated by Iran and its proxies.
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