Will India Change Its Nuclear Doctrine?

Pakistan's evolving long-range missile programme could lead India to re-think its stated "No First Use (NFU)" policy on the use of nuclear weapons, two Indian strategic affair experts have told Sputnik India.

"Time and again, there have been calls within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to reconsider the 'No First Use' policy. In 2016, the then Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had backed introducing an element of unpredictability to India's nuclear doctrine," remarked defence analyst Qamar Agha.

Citing the 2020 comments of incumbent Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Singh stated that even though India remained "firmly committed" to the No-First Use doctrine, "what happens in future depends on the circumstances".

Further, Agha underscored that the BJP, whenever it has been in power, is known to be acutely conscious of security-related matters.

"So, I believe that Pakistan's move to develop long-range missiles which could be fitted with nuclear warheads will definitely have a bearing on Indian policy makers. There is a likelihood that in view of the developments, India would reconsider its "No First Use" policy," Agha stressed.

However, any change to India's No-First Use Doctrine will have to take into account a number of factors, which include a professed commitment to the international non-proliferation regime and the 123 agreement, he added.

In a major boost to its nuclear deterrence, India tested Agni-V Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a range of over 5,000 kilometres this year. Pakistan, on the other hand, is known to have the Shaheen-III missile, which has a range of 2,750 kilometres, which could cover targets in India. Meanwhile, Pakistan is reportedly developing advanced variants of Shaheen with longer-range strike capabilities.

India's NFU Policy, first made public by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) in 2003, was subject to change depending on the security situation, M Matheswaran, retired Air Marshal of the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff (IDS), told Sputnik India.

"India is very much committed to the 'No First Use' doctrine. However, as stated by the Defence Minister, whether this policy would change in the future depends on circumstances, So, there is a window that India may decide to reconsider its no-first use policy in view of the security situation," Matheswaran stated.

Unlike India, Pakistan does not have a no-first-use nuclear doctrine and has yet to publicly acknowledge its development of long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), he noted.

"Pakistan decided to go nuclear in 1998 because it claimed to have faced an existential threat from a nuclear India," Matheswaran stated.

Commenting on Pakistan's possible motivation in developing long-range nuclear strike capability to hit targets beyond India, Agha emphasised that the country was seeking to project power in the Islamic world in light of the recent developments in the Middle East.

"Pakistan senses a security vacuum in the Islamic world in view of the developments in Syria and Gaza. However, the US won't allow Pakistan to emerge as an alternative security provider in the region. Pakistan's dilemma is compounded by the fact that it faces economic difficulties and is reliant on western lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to navigate its woes," the analyst said.

US pressure on Pakistan over its ballistic missile programme is "set to grow," Matheswaran noted, while suggesting that American sanctions would have minimal effect on the nation's long-range missile capabilities.

He recalled that the genesis of Pakistan's nuclear programme lied in the defeat suffered during the 1971 India-Pakistan War, which led to the creation of Bangladesh.

"It was the US that turned a blind eye to Pakistan's nuclear programme in the 1980s in the lead-up to its first nuclear tests in 1998 and now doesn't have much control over it. The US sanctions are just meant to send a political message. It is China that has provided Pakistan with technical support for its nuclear programme, so Beijing may have a much greater say than the US," the Indian veteran underscored.

The US State Department sanctions were imposed on the state-backed National Development Complex (NDC) and three private entities for developing long-range missiles, including the Shaheen-series.

The US Deputy National Security Advisor (NSA) Jon Finer, speaking to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented that it was hard for US to gauge Pakistan's intent in developing long-range missiles which could eventually be turned nuclear-capable. Further, Finer remarked that Pakistan's missile programme represents an "emerging threat" to the US, one that also could eventually evolve to target South Asia and other regions beyond.

Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) referred to the US sanctions as "unfortunate and biased", saying that the country's strategic capabilities are meant to "defend its sovereignty and preserve peace and stability in South Asia".

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