https://sputniknews.in/20241210/how-assads-exodus-from-syria-could-impact-india-8522121.html
How Assad's Exodus From Syria Could Impact India
How Assad's Exodus From Syria Could Impact India
Sputnik India
In a 12-day blitz, Syrian rebels captured city after city, ending Bashar al-Assad's 24-year reign on 8 December. Sputnik India analyses the impact of this... 10.12.2024, Sputnik India
2024-12-10T21:47+0530
2024-12-10T21:47+0530
2024-12-11T12:34+0530
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A regime change in Syria could potentially halt any hopes for India to invest in the development of the India-Gulf-Suez Canal-Mediterranean/Levant-Europe corridor, where Syria was a key partner, Anant Mishra, a Marie Curie Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security (ICPS), University of South Wales, told Sputnik India.The two countries engagement was a unique opportunity for India to expand its economic wings into other Middle Eastern states, he added.He noted that India's commitment to Syria was evident in its decision not to withdraw or close its embassy during the 2011 Syrian Civil War, further demonstrated when the Arab League suspended Syria's membership. Additionally, India favoured a non-military solution to resolve the conflict, advocating for an inclusive, Syrian-led political process.The fall of Bashar al-Assad poses serious concerns not just economically but also in the context of India's political interests in the region.Although India encourages stability in states that provide oil and gas imports, it adopts a policy of strict neutrality during external crises and continues to emphasise the need to reinstate regional security in the region, which was echoed by the Ministry of External Affairs' (MEA) recent statement, the geopolitical commentator highlighted.He suggested that the group is now reinforced along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militants, who collectively call themselves the Syrian National Army.The HTS and the Syrian National Army share a complex, love-hate relationship, having fought against each other on many fronts while occasionally converging on others, the analyst said, adding that in case of a power struggle, they are likely to take opposing sides. Aligned with Turkiye, whose role is crucial in the rise of HTS (although rejected by Turkish officials), the group seeks to establish a buffer zone near the Turkish border to isolate Kurdish fighters under Ankara's orders, Mishra explained.India is likely to engage with Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restart economic investments in the region, with Syria's investment future reflecting India relations with Turkiye, the international relations commentator assessed.He pointed out that there is no hidden truth that India's cultural connect with Syria runs deep – beyond the Jawaharlal Nehru Street in Umayyad Square in Damascus, – its intent to create a steady supply chain to support reconstruction efforts to cater to the Syrian population with uninterrupted supply of food among other essentials, has surely taken a significant blow.Meanwhile, India has been seriously concerned about the horizontal expansion of the Syrian conflict since October last year, Dr Deepika Saraswat, an Associate Fellow at the West Asia Center, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), said in an interview with Sputnik India.The rapid offensive made by HTS and other rebel groups dislodging the Syrian government creates new challenges for the territorial integrity of Syria and gives new fillip to the extremist, jihadist forces in the wider region, she expressed.India would prefer a peaceful transition for both the security and safety of its citizens and investments, Dr Md Muddassir Quamar, an associate professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, believes.Diplomatic contacts will currently be a priority mainly to safeguard the Indian interest including the lives of Indian citizens currently in Syria, and for evacuating them in case the situation arises, and also the Indian investments, Quamar told Sputnik India. Cultural and people-to-people contact will currently take a back seat and resume once peace and stability are established, the academic asserted.India's relations with Syria date back to its participation in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in modern history, with strong political ties based on principles of sovereignty, non-intervention, and mutual respect, Dr Shubhda Chaudhary, the founder of the Middle East Insights Platform, a think tank focused on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, stressed in an interview with Sputnik india.While the Indian diaspora in Syria is minimal — 90 Indians reside in Syria and 14 in UN diplomatic domains — India's engagement remains significant within its broader Middle East policy, she evaluated.Nonetheless, it is too early to predict how India's relations with a new administration in Damascus, under the control of HTS, might evolve, as there are many other umbrella groups now resurging in Syria that could dilute its power, the global politics observer predicted.HTS has reportedly initiated backchannel discussions with significant actors like Russia, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon, signaling a desire for regional dialogue, however, it remains uncertain whether HTS will extend such outreach to India, Chaudhary said. Syria is undergoing a period of intensive and dramatic transition, where power dynamics are fluid, and any formal diplomatic engagement requires careful consideration, the think tanker illustrated.In the coming months, India's approach will likely focus on observing developments, maintaining a low diplomatic profile, and assessing avenues for engagement while ensuring its interests — both political and economic — are protected, Chaudhary concluded.*terrorist organisations banned in Russia, India and other countries
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How Assad's Exodus From Syria Could Impact India
21:47 10.12.2024 (Updated: 12:34 11.12.2024) In a 12-day blitz, Syrian rebels captured city after city, ending Bashar al-Assad's 24-year reign on 8 December. Sputnik India analyses the impact of this dramatic shift in power on India.
A regime change in Syria could potentially halt any hopes for India to invest in the development of the India-Gulf-Suez Canal-Mediterranean/Levant-Europe corridor, where Syria was a key partner, Anant Mishra, a Marie Curie Research Fellow at the International Centre for Policing and Security (ICPS), University of South Wales, told Sputnik India.
The two countries engagement was a unique opportunity for India to expand its economic wings into other Middle Eastern states, he added.
"India's investment in Syria may not appear to be sizeable but was significant including the stalled agreement between Oil and Natural Gas Corporation [ONGC] and IPR International for oil and natural gas exploration in 2004, and another joint investment by ONGC and China's National Petroleum Corporation to acquire a 37% stake in a Canadian firm operating in Syria in 2005 and $240 million line of credit for MW Tishreen Thermal Power Plant Extension, modernisation of its steel plant amidst exports of textiles, which will experience initial shock for the first few months," Mishra underscored.
He noted that India's commitment to Syria was evident in its decision not to withdraw or close its embassy during the 2011 Syrian Civil War, further demonstrated when the Arab League suspended Syria's membership. Additionally, India favoured a non-military solution to resolve the conflict, advocating for an inclusive, Syrian-led political process.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad poses serious concerns not just economically but also in the context of India's political interests in the region.
Although India encourages stability in states that provide oil and gas imports, it adopts a policy of strict neutrality during external crises and
continues to emphasise the need to reinstate regional security in the region, which was echoed by the Ministry of External Affairs' (MEA)
recent statement, the geopolitical commentator highlighted.
"Additionally, it is no hidden secret that the takeover of Damascus by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) potentially increases the revision of ISIS* (Daesh) and smaller factions with possibly Al-Qaeda* affiliation in the region," the researcher commented.
He suggested that the group is now reinforced along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militants, who collectively call themselves the Syrian National Army.
The HTS and the Syrian National Army share a complex, love-hate relationship, having fought against each other on many fronts while occasionally converging on others, the analyst said, adding that in case of a power struggle, they are likely to take opposing sides. Aligned with Turkiye, whose role is crucial in the rise of HTS (although rejected by Turkish officials), the group seeks to establish a
buffer zone near the Turkish border to isolate Kurdish fighters under Ankara's orders, Mishra explained.
India is likely to engage with Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restart economic investments in the region, with Syria's investment future reflecting India relations with Turkiye, the international relations commentator assessed.
He pointed out that there is no hidden truth that India's cultural connect with Syria runs deep – beyond the Jawaharlal Nehru Street in Umayyad Square in Damascus, – its intent to create a steady supply chain to support reconstruction efforts to cater to the Syrian population with uninterrupted supply of food among other essentials, has surely taken a significant blow.
"It is highly likely for India to raise humanitarian concerns and provide necessary material support but any attempt to create investment opportunities for local Syrians has surely taken a back seat as the scope of infrastructural development in the region or even elevate the region as a major supply route, will have to be checked with Turkiye," Mishra observed.
Meanwhile, India has been seriously concerned about the horizontal expansion of the Syrian conflict since October last year, Dr Deepika Saraswat, an Associate Fellow at the West Asia Center, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), said in an interview with Sputnik India.
The rapid offensive made by HTS and other rebel groups dislodging the Syrian government creates new challenges for the territorial integrity of Syria and
gives new fillip to the extremist, jihadist forces in the wider region, she expressed.
"India will continue to take a principled stance towards Syria, supporting its territorial integrity, supporting inclusive Syrian-led political process, and working with regional countries on the issue of terrorism and its spillover," Saraswat emphasised.
India would prefer a peaceful transition for both the security and safety of its citizens and investments, Dr Md Muddassir Quamar, an associate professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, believes.
Diplomatic contacts will currently be a priority mainly to safeguard the Indian interest including the lives of Indian citizens currently in Syria, and for evacuating them in case the situation arises, and also the Indian investments, Quamar told
Sputnik India. Cultural and
people-to-people contact will currently take a back seat and resume once peace and stability are established, the academic asserted.
"India will carefully watch the developments and depending on how the situation evolves it will work with the local and regional partners to secure its interests. Primarily, a Syrian-led peaceful process appears the best option forward, but nothing can be certain at this point as things are unfolding at a fast pace," he remarked.
India's relations with Syria date back to its participation in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in modern history, with strong political ties based on principles of sovereignty, non-intervention, and mutual respect, Dr Shubhda Chaudhary, the founder of the Middle East Insights Platform, a think tank focused on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, stressed in an interview with Sputnik india.
While the Indian diaspora in Syria is minimal — 90 Indians reside in Syria and 14 in UN diplomatic domains — India's engagement remains significant within its broader Middle East policy, she evaluated.
Nonetheless, it is too early to predict how India's relations with a new administration in Damascus, under the control of HTS, might evolve, as there are many other umbrella
groups now resurging in Syria that could dilute its power, the global politics observer predicted.
"The transition of power is expected to be extremely difficult, with competing regional and global dynamics at play. India's approach to the crisis will likely emphasise non-interference while cautiously assessing the emerging power structure. Its historical engagement with Syria and commitment to regional stability will drive its policy. India may also adopt a humanitarian stance, offering aid and advocating for peace talks to protect minority populations," Chaudhary elucidated.
HTS has reportedly initiated backchannel discussions with significant actors like Russia, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon, signaling a desire for regional dialogue, however, it remains uncertain whether HTS will extend such outreach to India, Chaudhary said. Syria is undergoing a period of
intensive and dramatic transition, where power dynamics are fluid, and any formal diplomatic engagement requires careful consideration, the think tanker illustrated.
In the coming months, India's approach will likely focus on observing developments, maintaining a low diplomatic profile, and assessing avenues for engagement while ensuring its interests — both political and economic — are protected, Chaudhary concluded.
*terrorist organisations banned in Russia, India and other countries
