Can America Successfully Retrieve Military Gear Left Behind in Afghanistan?

The genesis of the ill-conceived and impulsive withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 lies with Donald Trump who, in 2020, negotiated one-sided Doha peace deal which called for a US withdrawal by May 2021, and had surrender etched all over it, according to Burzine Waghmar, a Fellow at the European Foundation for South Asian Studies in the Netherlands and a member of the South Asia Institute, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London.

Trump's successor, Joe Biden, engendered the political morass and humiliation by not reneging on it, he told Sputnik India. Biden delayed the US ignominious exit by a few months and the charge he could not have scrapped his predecessor's commitment carries weight for a new Taliban counter-offensive that would have targeted not just its regional foes, such as the Islamic State Khorasan Force (IS-K**), but also American forces, the strategic affairs pundit noted.

It was an unwinnable war, but what made the endgame glaringly humiliating was the speed of Biden's pull-out in defiance of advice from the Pentagon, he added.

Trump's recent contention glosses are these inconvenient facts from the recent past. His public threats to the Taliban, as with Hamas, are geared for a domestic constituency, the think tanker stated.

"Trump 2.0 must have been briefed by not only the Indians of how considerable caches of what was left behind to the tune of $7.1bn has been resold by the Taliban on the global terror market. Indian military and intelligence officials pointedly remarked in 2023 how ammunition, hitherto unseen during the Kashmir insurgency over the past three decades, such as M16s and M4s, were recovered from outfits such as the Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT**) and Jaish-e Muhammad (JeT**)," Waghmar stressed.

The Taliban would argue that this arsenal, not all of which has been smuggled out "by a bankrupt Kabul for revenue", is crucial for combating IS-K, he suggested.

The Taliban has been aided by operational inputs from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and MI6 in the past against the IS-K, the expert underlined.

"The Taliban are woefully lacking in airpower. If anything, they have not only rejected Trump's call for handing back the arsenal but also demanding more to combat the IS-K," Waghmar highlighted.

He suggested that Pakistan will continue to leverage its nuclear capabilities with Trump 2.0, portraying its army as essential to preventing jihadists from seizing its arsenal, while trying to convince Trump it's the key player in influencing Afghanistan.

Despite strained Taliban relations, Pakistan's approach remains consistent, while India seeks to improve ties with Afghanistan.

"Reality bites and a desperate Taliban, broke and unrecognised, will seek whatever it can despite ideological compulsions," the observer noted.

Trump's plan to bring back American weapons left in Afghanistan is impractical, because the Taliban have become far more organised and their grip has strengthened all across the country, Badshah Khan, a Pakistan-based senior journalist and a global politics specialist stated.

Moreover, the Taliban government is unlikely to give up arms, as they recently demanded that Uzbekistan return the fighter jets flown to the country before their takeover of Kabul, which were eventually handed over to the United States, he pointed out.

Khan emphasised that returning these weapons to the U.S. and NATO could lead to the collapse of the Taliban government and a loss of popular support, making such a deal unlikely.

"The maximum America can offer is to recognise the Taliban government. But it seems that the US is looking for an excuse to start a new war in the region as there are no indications for recognising the Taliban, instead there are sanctions on them. It seems that by saying 'we will withdraw weapons', a new war is being imposed on the region," the Karachi-based expert stressed.

Concurrently, Siar Khoreishi, an Afghan analyst, echoed the sentiments of Waghmar and Khan, acknowledging that Trump's proposed move was "impractical". Yet, in case the Taliban and the US were to negotiate a deal for the handover of American military equipment left in Afghanistan, the Trump administration would likely offer a combination of few factors in return, he told Sputnik India:

Sanctions relief: Easing restrictions on Taliban leaders or Afghan banking access.

Diplomatic legitimacy: Partial recognition or engagement with international bodies.

Financial aid: Humanitarian assistance or access to frozen Afghan reserves.

Security cooperation: Intelligence-sharing against ISIS-K.

Trade access: Allowing Afghan exports under reduced restrictions.

Prisoner releases: Potential exchange of Taliban detainees.

Equipment incentives: Civilian supplies or controlled buyback programs.

* Under UN sanctions

** Terrorist organisations banned in Russia and other countries

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