Trump's Unpredictability Affecting Indian Interests in Asia: Experts

Initial enthusiasm in India surrounding US President Donald Trump's re-election in the US is fast paving for pessimism, a sentiment further reinforced by US strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites - Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, experts have told Sputnik India.

So far, India's repeated calls for dialogue and diplomacy in the Gaza conflict and lately on Iran-Israel conflict have largely gone unheeded in Tel Aviv and Washington, with President Trump warning Iran that "future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier" in case Tehran chooses to retaliate against US strikes.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their call on Sunday evening that Iran reserves the "right to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity", Mehr News Agency reported. For his part, Prime Minister Modi stressed the need for an "immediate de-escalation" through dialogue and diplomacy in order to ensure "early restoration of regional peace, security and stability", according to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

The US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, despite contrary threat assessments by the intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), also come amid apparent friction between India and the Trump administration over tariffs and Pakistan. In a telephone call last week, PM Modi told President Trump that the recent India-Pakistan conflict was resolved directly without US mediation, though the PM's comment hasn't deterred Trump from again claiming that his mediation led to the diffusing of tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

Explaining India's tight-rope diplomatic balancing following US strikes on Iran, Dr Abhinav Pandya, CEO and Director of Indian foreign policy think tank Usanas Foundation, told Sputnik India that the growing US "interference" in the region didn't align well with India's interests.

"The recent meeting between Pakistan's Field Marshall Asim Munir and President Donald Trump has already raised eyebrows in Indian strategic circles," Pandya said.

Such moves embolden Pakistan and have the potential to increase its influence in not only South Asia, but also the Middle-East and Central Asian region, including in Afghanistan, he added.

As recent rhetoric by Pakistani politicians like Bilawal Bhutto Zardari shows, "US support makes Pakistan more audacious, without resolving India's grievances on cross-border terrorism," cautioned Pandya.

The think tank chief stressed that Trump’s “growing unpredictability” on issues of concern to India, combined with his reversal on avoiding foreign wars, does not bode well for India.

"Trump's stance on Operation Sindoor aligns well with Pakistan's strategic goals against India, as Islamabad has sought to internationalise the India-Pakistan tensions, particularly on the Jammu and Kashmir problem. There is a growing perception in India that Trump's geopolitical goals for South Asia and the broader region converge to a degree with Pakistan's objectives," he said.

Further, Pandya emphasised that India enjoys good ties with both Iran and Israel.

With Israel, India is a major arms buyer and partner in agriculture modernization, with key investments including the Haifa Port and collaboration on the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC).

With Iran, India maintains historical and connectivity ties, investing in Chabahar Port and supporting the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

"India imports about 85% of its crude oil, with around 40% passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Developments there can impact global oil prices and India’s interests. However, recent diversification of suppliers helps reduce this risk," he said, noting Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri’s remark that a large volume of Indian oil now bypasses the Strait.

The Iranian Parliament has approved a resolution to close down the maritime chokepoint, with the final decision now resting with the country's National Security Council headed by the President.

"There are strong bonds between the Iranian government, underpinned by close people-to-people ties. Iran's advocacy of Islamic causes, be it on Palestine, does mobilise a lot of support in India." Pandya said.

He suggested that any further escalation of the conflict would also impact the Indian diaspora across the Middle-East region, given they are a big source of remittances.

The US violated the UN Charter and the guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in launching strikes against Iran, Sudheendra Kulkarni, a former Prime Ministerial advisor, told Sputnik India.

"India should condemn this illegal and dangerous war waged by the US and Israel on Iran," Kulkarni said.

The former PM aide further said that India should join hands with Russia and China under the BRICS framework to push for an end to the regional escalation.

"A common RIC [Russia-India-China] and BRICS proposal should be made to end the war. Ahead of the BRICS Summit in Brazil early next month, a joint RIC peace initiative will send a strong signal of solidarity to the entire world," Kulkarni stated.

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Trump's Growing Unpredictability Impacts India's Asian Interests: Experts