Canada-EU Defence Pact Shows a Widening Rift within NATO: Analysts

The new Security and Defence Partnership between Canada and the European Union (EU) is indicative of a widening rift in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) due to divergences on crucial questions of defence burden sharing and continued support for Ukraine, Indian military analysts have told Sputnik India.

"While it may not be a feasible proposition for western allies to sideline the US from NATO completely, the European Union (EU) and Canada are increasingly coming to terms with the new reality, which is that the Trump administration is purely a transactional government," said retired Major General Shashi Bhushan Asthana, the Director of Indian tri services thinktank United Services Institution (USI) of India.

Asthana noted that Trump wasn't exactly on the same page with Europeans or the Canadians as far as the transatlantic security is concerned, particularly regarding Russia.

"While Brussels treats Russia as a threat to European security, Trump doesn't seem to think of Russia in similar terms. Unless there is a major escalation like the risk of a nuclear confrontation, Trump's view of Russia won't align with those of Europe," he stated.

He noted Trump's aversion to multilateral and global commitments, be it in NATO, the USAID or the World Health Organisation (WHO).

"Trump sees them as distractions in his stated objective of Making American Great Again (MAGA)," Asthana said.

At the same time, Asthana said that Canada has also come to terms with the fact that Trump may not be as reliable a partner as previous American presidents, while noting Trump's repeated references to Canada as America's 51st state early on in his presidency.

"So, both Canada and the EU are looking to devise an alternative security structure within the western alliance which is less dependent on the US, if not completely independent of it. The realisation is that Trump can't be trusted because of his transactional nature," the Indian veteran explained.

In such a scenario, he continued, EU and Canada are looking at becoming less dependent on the US for security as well as arms production. Canada may be feeling that it could rely on the combined strength of Europe in defence manufacturing to reduce its sizeable reliance on the US, the expert suggested.

Further, Asthana said that there was clearly a "sense of friction" in NATO due to Trump calling on other allies to ramp up their defence spending and his criticism of the previous Biden administration for pouring billions into helping Ukraine militarily.

"There is a sense of apprehension about the effectiveness of NATO under these circumstances. While Trump may not pull out of NATO, there are clearly fears in the alliance anticipating such a possibility," he said.

The new EU-Canada defence pact has been unveiled ahead of the NATO Summit at The Hague, where the European allies and Canada are expected to reportedly announce a defence expenditure commitment of 5% of their respective GDPs, Politico has reported.

According to NATO's defence expenditure data from 2024, the US contributed around $755 billion in military funding to the 32-nation alliance, with European allies and Canada jointly contributing the remaining $430 billion out of total budget of $1,185 billion.

However, friction over US' decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities has created visible differences ahead of the meeting, with the UK and France having distanced themselves from American strikes at the weekend. Significantly, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has reportedly pulled out of the NATO Summit due to US strikes on Iran.

Indian Army veteran and acclaimed author retired Lieutenant Colonel JS Sodhi minces no words in stating that the Canada-EU Defence Pact is aimed at sidelining Trump as the chief decision-maker of the western military camp.

"Both Canada and the EU realise that they can't publicly make their grievances against Trump known due to US stature and the biggest NATO partner, but this new pact is the closest they have got till date to make their displeasure known," Sodhi told Spuntik India.

He noted the statement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has said that his government intends to move away from an overwhelming reliance on the US, which accounts for around 75% of Canadian defence imports.

"Both EU and Canada have agreed to launch discussions on Canada's accession to a $173 billion European defence fund (SAFE) to jointly produce weapons and systems, a partnership which excludes the US," said Sodhi.

Not only this, Canada and EU have also announced that they would be launching "comprehensive negotiations" across multiple areas – including trade and economic security, the digital transition, and the fight against climate change and environmental degradation, he noted.

Sodhi said that the EU-Canada pact didn't bode well for NATO as an alliance, which has faced differences due to Ukraine and on defence spending of individual members.

"We have already seen how NATO allies have distanced themselves from US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, reflective of brewing discontentment with Trump. This puts a big question mark on NATO's plan to expand into the Indo-Pacific, which was spelled out in the ‘Strategic Concept’ unveiled at the Vilnius Summit in 2022," Sodhi concluded.

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Canada-EU Defence Pact Shows Widening NATO Rift: Analysts