"With the new government now in place, India will likely look for immediate signals of policy recalibration rather than rhetorical gestures. Specifically, New Delhi will be attentive to three early indicators: reaffirmation of Bangladesh's commitment to non-interference in India's internal affairs, continuity in security cooperation along the border, and constructive engagement on connectivity initiatives that link India's Northeast with Bangladesh's ports and transit corridors," stated Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury, the editor of the Bangladeshi media publication Blitz.
India's strategic community understands the depth of geographic and economic interdependence between the two countries. Therefore, what New Delhi will expect most is predictability, institutional consistency, and a return to quiet but effective diplomacy. Early diplomatic outreach, high-level visits, and policy continuity in counter-terrorism cooperation would serve as powerful confidence-building measures, he added.
At this juncture, both nations have far more to gain from strategic stability than from ideological positioning. The new government's initial moves will therefore be closely observed - not only in New Delhi, but across regional capitals, the strategic affairs pundit reckoned.
At this juncture, both nations have far more to gain from strategic stability than from ideological positioning. The new government's initial moves will therefore be closely observed - not only in New Delhi, but across regional capitals, the strategic affairs pundit reckoned.
"The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) governed Bangladesh during 1991–1996 and 2001–2006 under Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. During those tenures, bilateral relations with India remained functional and, at key moments, cooperative - particularly in trade and diplomatic engagement," Choudhury highlighted.
While it is true that the 2001–2006 coalition period involved participation of Jamaat-e-Islami, which often adopted ideological positions perceived as unfavourable toward India, the current political arithmetic is markedly different. With a decisive parliamentary majority, PM Rahman possesses both the authority and the political space to pursue an independent and pragmatic foreign policy, he underscored.
Given Bangladesh's present economic vulnerabilities and external debt pressures, recalibration rather than confrontation appears the rational path. Security cooperation with India - particularly in counter-terrorism, cross-border insurgency containment, and intelligence coordination - is not merely a diplomatic option but a strategic necessity, the expert said.
Any dilution in this domain would alarm not only India but also wider regional stakeholders, the counter-terrorism specialist mentioned.
"Connectivity projects linking Bangladesh's ports with India's Northeast, energy grid interconnections, and cross-border trade corridors have already reshaped the economic geography of South Asia. A reversal would carry significant economic costs. Conversely, deepening such engagement could accelerate Bangladesh's economic recovery," Choudhury emphasised.
At the same time, Bangladesh's regional balancing will be closely watched. Dhaka's engagement with China and the United States will inevitably intersect with its ties to India, he explained.
The previous administration's trade arrangements with Washington have already introduced complex geopolitical variables and in many ways greatly compromised Bangladesh's sovereignty, the international relations analyst pointed out.
The previous administration's trade arrangements with Washington have already introduced complex geopolitical variables and in many ways greatly compromised Bangladesh's sovereignty, the international relations analyst pointed out.
"To find ways of coming out of this trap, Dhaka will definitely need a strong ally – which for many reasons can only be India as New Delhi remains the most immediate and time-tested strategic partner and a strategic neighbour, which is geographically inescapable and economically intertwined," Choudhury asserted.
If Prime Minister Rahman prioritises economic stabilisation and regional credibility, strengthening Dhaka–New Delhi relations will be an unavoidable pillar of that strategy and most definitely it will be at the top of the list, he stressed.
A calibrated foreign policy - one that avoids ideological polarisation and focuses on economic pragmatism - would not only reassure India but also send positive signals to other global capitals, particularly in the Global South, the observer assessed.
A calibrated foreign policy - one that avoids ideological polarisation and focuses on economic pragmatism - would not only reassure India but also send positive signals to other global capitals, particularly in the Global South, the observer assessed.
"The coming months will therefore be decisive. Bangladesh stands at a diplomatic crossroads, and its choices will shape the strategic architecture of South Asia for years to come," Choudhury remarked.
Meanwhile, Dr Shushant VC Parashar, an academic at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education's Department of Geopolitics & International Relations, believes that India will prioritise operational continuity with Bangladesh over past rhetoric.
The key signals it will look for are sustained border and intelligence cooperation, effective law-and-order control, including protection of minorities and diplomatic facilities, and predictable transit arrangements that support connectivity to the Northeast, he observed.
The key signals it will look for are sustained border and intelligence cooperation, effective law-and-order control, including protection of minorities and diplomatic facilities, and predictable transit arrangements that support connectivity to the Northeast, he observed.
"Quiet institutional engagement through existing bilateral and subregional mechanisms will matter more than public messaging. If connectivity initiatives are framed as mutually beneficial and respectful of sovereignty sensitivities, this will be read as reassurance," Parashar told Sputnik India.
A government led by Rahman is likely to focus first on stabilising relations with India rather than pursuing immediate renegotiation of sensitive issues. Economic dependence on transit, energy cooperation, and the need to project external reliability favour a conciliatory and continuity-driven approach, the professor commented.
Border security coordination is expected to remain steady, while trade and water matters would be addressed later through technical channels after confidence-building, he suggested.
Border security coordination is expected to remain steady, while trade and water matters would be addressed later through technical channels after confidence-building, he suggested.
"Regional outreach to other South Asian partners is likely to stay limited and low-profile in the initial phase, reflecting a pragmatic priority on restoring predictability in the India relationship before widening diplomatic engagement," Parashar summed up.