Amid the Israeli-US military back and forth with the Iranian Armed Forces since February 28, India's energy imports from Russia have risen to 1.5 million barrels per day (mbd) and are on course to cross 2 million mbd if the war stretches for a couple more weeks, an oil analyst has said.
Russian crude imports into India have accelerated significantly in recent days. Earlier in February, prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, expectations for Russian crude imports into India were estimated at around 800–1,000 kbd, Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst – Refining & Modelling, at shipping data provider Kpler, stated.
However, following the developments, Russian trade flows have picked up considerably, enabling India to import volumes well above the earlier baseline levels, he underscored.
Russian crude imports into India have accelerated significantly in recent days. Earlier in February, prior to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, expectations for Russian crude imports into India were estimated at around 800–1,000 kbd, Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst – Refining & Modelling, at shipping data provider Kpler, stated.
However, following the developments, Russian trade flows have picked up considerably, enabling India to import volumes well above the earlier baseline levels, he underscored.
"Market tracking also indicates that a substantial amount of Russian crude cargoes are currently on the water, particularly moving across the Indian Ocean region toward Indian ports. As of the 11th of the month, arrivals of Russian crude into India are already estimated at around 1.5 million barrels per day, reflecting the strong pace of inflows," Ritolia emphasised.
If the current shipment schedules and cargo movements continue, total Russian crude arrivals for the full month could reach close to 2 million barrels per day, or potentially even exceed that level, further reinforcing India's crude supply position amid the broader uncertainty surrounding flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the commodities expert noted.
India's oil procurement from Russia was over 2 million barrels per day in August 2025, before the US imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the Eurasian state's two largest oil firms.
India began diversifying its crude imports, while Russia maintained its position as the No.1 oil supplier to India, New Delhi halved its purchases from Moscow, and instead began sourcing more from the Middle East.
But all that changed in the aftermath of the launch of the Israeli-American military campaign against Iran, especially after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
With the narrow shipping route passing through Hormuz closed for oil cargoes, through which India sources 50% of its energy requirements, putting the South Asian nation in a spot of bother.
Russia, once again, is coming to India's rescue, helping it with additional oil supplies, at a time when prices of the essential commodity went past the $100-per-barrel mark in the last few days before coming down to $86-per-barrel at present.
India's oil procurement from Russia was over 2 million barrels per day in August 2025, before the US imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, the Eurasian state's two largest oil firms.
India began diversifying its crude imports, while Russia maintained its position as the No.1 oil supplier to India, New Delhi halved its purchases from Moscow, and instead began sourcing more from the Middle East.
But all that changed in the aftermath of the launch of the Israeli-American military campaign against Iran, especially after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
With the narrow shipping route passing through Hormuz closed for oil cargoes, through which India sources 50% of its energy requirements, putting the South Asian nation in a spot of bother.
Russia, once again, is coming to India's rescue, helping it with additional oil supplies, at a time when prices of the essential commodity went past the $100-per-barrel mark in the last few days before coming down to $86-per-barrel at present.
"India's continued imports of Russian crude barrels remain a key factor in maintaining stability in its energy supply, particularly amid the recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly half of India's crude imports typically transit. With risks potentially affecting Middle Eastern supply routes, India's ability to source large volumes of discounted Russian crude has helped diversify its import basket and reduce dependence on a single corridor," Ritolia underlined.
The United States has also acknowledged India's ongoing purchases of Russian oil, recognising that India, as one of the largest consumers and refiners globally, plays an important role in maintaining global oil market stability, he mentioned.
As a result, the steady inflow of Russian barrels, combined with additional sourcing from regions such as the United States and West Africa, will help ensure that India remains well supplied with crude, despite the uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical tensions, the specialist concluded.
As a result, the steady inflow of Russian barrels, combined with additional sourcing from regions such as the United States and West Africa, will help ensure that India remains well supplied with crude, despite the uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical tensions, the specialist concluded.