“The Islamic Republic has long adopted a policy of decentralizing its critical infrastructure and placing key pumping stations underground,” he explains.
The commissioning of the Jask oil terminal — situated beyond the Strait of Hormuz and linked by a 1,000-kilometer pipeline to Bushehr Province oil fields — means that Iran is no longer reliant on a single chokepoint for its oil exports.
If Iran retaliated for the Kharg bombing, the targets would extend beyond US bases in Qatar and Bahrain to include key allied infrastructure that underpins Western energy supply chains, the analyst speculates.
In the crosshairs could be the largest oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, such as Abqaiq, as well as Qatar’s gas terminals, where enormous investments by American corporations are concentrated.
Strikes on these sites would make oil prices completely unpredictable for Western consumers, the lecturer speculates.
“Any US attempt to strike Iranian infrastructure looks like economic suicide because Iran can inflict symmetric damage on assets that are way more vulnerable and far less defended," he says.
While Iran has lived under sanctions for decades, and has already established sales channels in Asia, a reduction in the physical volume of oil flowing from the Persian Gulf would trigger a sharp surge in inflation inside the US itself, he notes.
“For American industry and the transport sector, gasoline at sky-high prices could become a fatal factor,” he sums up.