Biden Administration Caught in Aid Dilemma: Ukraine vs Israel
15:29 10.10.2023 (Updated: 17:00 10.10.2023)
© OLIVIER DOULIERY
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With the US support for Ukraine's "counteroffensive" proving to be a failure, the Biden administration now faces another dilemma: who of its allies - Ukraine or Israel - deserves aid the most?
On Saturday morning, there was a significant attack from the Gaza Strip of unprecedented intensity. As a result, Hamas successfully breached Israel's southern border areas. In response to this escalation, the militant faction of the Palestinian movement launched the Al-Aqsa flooding operation, targeting Tel Aviv.
In response, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched Operation Iron Swords, a military campaign aimed at confronting Hamas within the confines of the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the nation was now in a state of war and ordered the mobilisation of reserve forces. The Israeli Defence Forces are currently carrying out sweeping operations.
With the rapidly evolving escalation in the Middle East, Israel should receive all possible financial support originally intended for Ukraine, US Senator Josh Hawley said on social network X (former Twitter). "All funds for Ukraine should be immediately redirected to Israel," he demanded.
Josh Hawley
© Photo : X (former Twitter)/@HawleyMO
Not Enough Munitions for Everyone?
The conflict in Ukraine has been characterised by a heavy reliance on artillery, and nearly 19 months into the conflict there remains a significant gap between Ukraine's demand for artillery shells and the production capacity of its US-led NATO allies. The supply of these essential munitions has become a point of contention for Western nations struggling to meet rising demand.
Ukrainian Member of Parliament Oleksandra Ustinova previously informed Western media that Ukrainian forces are expending nearly 6,000 shells daily, with intends to boost this figure to over 10,000. In response, in mid-September, the United States declared that it would begin ramping up its monthly production of 155-millimeter artillery rounds, with the goal of producing 100,000 by 2025.
Earlier, Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova informed Western media that the Ukrainian forces were currently utilising nearly 6,000 shells per day with the purpose of elevating this number to 10,000. In response, the United States said in mid-September that it would begin increasing its monthly production of 155 millimetre artillery rounds, with the aim of producing 100,000 by 2025.
Israeli army soldiers are positioned with their armoured vehicles near the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on October 9, 2023.
© AFP 2023 JACK GUEZ
There is growing concern, especially on social media and among observers, about the potential consequences for Ukraine's ammunition supply following Israel's recent declaration of war against Hamas militants. There are concerns that this may interrupt the ammunition supply to Ukraine, especially if the supplies originally intended for Israel are redirected.
As the United States closely monitors these unfolding events, concerns have emerged regarding its ability to effectively support two crucial allies amidst a time of conflict. According to media reports, the United States swiftly took action to accelerate the delivery of munitions, especially following the initiation of the Israeli Defence Forces' offensive in Gaza.
While Israel has previously received substantial military aid from the United States, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in a reevaluation of priorities and the diversion of military resources from the Middle East. Media reports indicate that the Middle East has once again become the center of attention following Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu's proclamation of war.
Forego Israel for Ukraine?
Speculations spreading through social media hint at Hamas possibly declining a proposed ceasefire, citing allegations that Israel has redirected a substantial portion of its artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The underlying assumption is that Israel's motive may be to 'buy time' as the conflict continues.
This speculation follows earlier reports of ammunition being redeployed to Ukraine. In January of this year, unidentified officials from the United States and Israel revealed to the media that American munitions, previously stockpiled in Israel, had been dispatched to Ukraine, with additional shipments anticipated in the future.
However, with Tel Aviv now involved in the conflict, there are growing concerns about the need to replenish ammunition. With the US supplying Israel with significant amounts of ammunition, there is heightened interest in how Washington will manage the situation and ensure a balance in military supplies to both Kiev and Tel Aviv.
Although Israel has mainly relied on fighter jets to carry out large-scale retaliatory strikes on Gaza, the utilization of artillery has not been disregarded. During its most recent major military conflict, the IDF utilized artillery to an extensive degree, allegedly unleashing over 32,000 shells into Gaza in 2014.
A fireball erupts from an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on October 9, 2023.
© AFP 2023 MOHAMMED ABED
Hezbollah Joins the Fray?
Fears of an escalating conflict and increased ammunition requirements have been exacerbated by recent exchanges of fire with Hezbollah. After Hezbollah fired numerous rockets and mortars at IDF positions near the border, the IDF deployed armed drones.
Some open source intelligence (OSINT) sources have noted the movement of IDF vehicles towards the Lebanese border. However, these allegations remain unverified.
However, there are clear indications of a possible escalation between the IDF and Hezbollah, with reports suggesting that the latter possesses a substantial arsenal of tens of thousands of rockets. Although Hezbollah has avoided direct participation in past Israeli-Hamas conflicts since the 2006 war, its current behavior suggests a bolder approach.
Israel Will Pursue Escalation Over Diplomacy: Intelligence Officer
Israel will pursue escalation over diplomacy in dealing with Hamas, former IDF military intelligence officer Dr. Mordechai Kedar told Sputnik.
“The biggest sign is the fact that we already have here a very significant American flotilla headed by the aircraft carrier Ford in order to deter Hamas, and to deter Hezbollah from entering the war. And in this way Israel will be left alone to do whatever is needed to be done to Hamas without interference.”
Ukraine Uses Too Much Ammunition But Achieves Too Little, Unlike Israel: Experts
On 9 October, military analysts raised concerns about the potential financial cost of the Ukraine conflict to Israel. The situation raises the question of whether the Pentagon will face difficult choices in supplying two close allies.
According to Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a distinguished fellow at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, it is crucial to differentiate between the situations in Ukraine and Israel, despite the potential risk of Israel depleting its ammunition reserves.
"Ukraine uses too much ammunition to achieve too little. The Israelis, on the other hand, do not waste ammunition. They invest heavily in intelligence to know the target and hit it with precision, using a small percentage of their ammunition in a smart way," he added.
The expert noted that the size of the conflicting countries is incomparable, resulting in a different war strategy.
Following Israel's declaration of war, the country's security cabinet gave the go-ahead for what it described as a "major armed response". Although the exact specifics of these actions remain undisclosed, the proclamation has bestowed Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF with extensive powers.
This situation gives rise to a crucial question: How long will this new conflict endure, and can the United States provide support to Israel without undermining its dedication to supplying military aid to Kiev?
Ziad Mansour, a professor at the Lebanese University, said that the Kiev regime would bear the brunt of the escalation of the conflict in the occupied Palestinian territories.
"The Israeli authorities handed over 300,000 155 mm shells to Kiev last week. If the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues, the Israeli reserve will be depleted," Mansour noted.
"European countries have only issued statements on the Israeli-Palestinian situation because their focus is currently on Ukraine. However, if the conflict continues, they may provide military assistance to Israel, potentially diverting attention from Ukraine," Ziad Mansour told Sputnik Arabic.
Retired Gen. Patrick Donahoe, former head of the Army's Maneuver Centre of Excellence at Fort Benning, Georgia, shared his insights with media.
"The US has stockpiles, but the rate of use in Ukraine has been a wake-up call to increase production, not just to replace what we've transferred, but to generate the production capability we might need if we were to get involved in a major conventional fight. The US is in the process of increasing its 155mm artillery ammunition capability," Donahoe said.
The Pentagon is currently conducting a thorough evaluation of its stockpiles in order to find any extra resources that can be promptly provided to support Israel, its valued ally, amid the ongoing three-day conflict with Hamas. The White House has already begun shipping urgently needed ammunition and military equipment to Israel.
