Is India’s Chief of Defence Staff Wrong on Russia’s Geopolitical Importance?
18:48 16.10.2023 (Updated: 10:36 17.10.2023)
© Sputnik / Sergey Guneyev
/ Subscribe
Not only has Russia's economy started to recover from the initial impact of western sanctions, its defense expenditure is projected to grow by around 70 percent next year.
Indian strategic affairs and defense experts have rejected the statement by India’s Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan, who told a seminar that the “geopolitical importance of Russia will go down in times to come”.
“It is in spite of being a nuclear power. The Wagner rebellion indicates the internal weakness and is indicative of what may lie in store for the future as far as Russia is concerned,” General Chauhan told the 14th Air Chief Marshal LM Katre Memorial Lecture over weekend.
Chauhan also said that China would become more “assertive” in coming years because of its growing economic heft, which he said was evident in political, diplomatic and military domains.
The prediction on Russia by the senior Indian military official has stirred a debate in Indian strategic circles on account of historically close strategic and defense ties between Russia and India.
Moreover, Russia has emerged as the top crude supplier to India since the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine last year. In fact, India-Russia trade hit a record high of $45 billion in 2022-23, largely backed by Russian energy supplies to the one of the world’s fastest-growing major economy that is India.
Strategic affairs expert Pravin Sawhney, who is also a noted author, told Sputnik India that he is “surprised” by CDS Chauhan’s comment on Russia.
“I am actually surprised that CDS Anil Chauhan made a statement like that. I see this argument as part of a broader push instigated by western powers to wean India away from Russia. These are political statements being made by military officers,” Sawhney stressed.
The expert called upon Indian military officials to get a better grasp of geopolitics.
“India, as a player in Indo-Pacific, should understand that geopolitics is about geography. When we (India) talk about geographical proximity, Russia and China are closer to us than the US,” he said.
Sawhney also underscored the fact that the Russia-China strategic partnership was another factor in favour of Moscow in the current geopolitics.
“I don’t think that the CDS had any business to talk about Russia if he doesn’t understand a nation which has 11 time zones. Forget about being a nuclear power, Russia is a major energy exporter to the world,” he added.
Russia is and Will Remain a ‘Global Power’: Sawhney
Sawhney stated that “Russia is and will remain a major geopolitical power”.
“There are three powers in the world which are called geopolitical players—the US, Russia and China. This means that these three powers have the capability, capacity and political will to influence events way beyond their border,” Sawhney explained.
The expert noted that it was due to Russia’s global stature as a leading power that the US-led collective west was trying to “military weaken” Moscow through routing billions of dollars of arms supplies to Ukraine.
“It has single-handedly held off NATO in Ukraine. In fact, the NATO is now scrambling for options with the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the Middle-East. There are already reports of talks among NATO members on how much military equipment could be sent to Ukraine,” Sawhney stressed.
He expressed confidence that Russia could sustain the military operation in Ukraine for as long as it takes, amid a failing Ukrainian "counteroffensive".
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the Ukraine conflict isn’t about “territory” but “principles”.
At the same time, Sawhney described US as a “declining power”.
“I think that the CDS’ comments are reflective of the close strategic ties between India and the US under the current government,” he remarked.
Russia Has an ‘Intrinsic’ Military-Industrial Complex’: Army Veteran
Brigadier Arun Sahgal (retired), a senior fellow for strategic and regional security at the Delhi Policy Group, said that Russia possessed an “intrinsic technological, military and manufacturing strength”.
Russia has been a global leader in development of hypersonic missiles.
Amid the ongoing special military operation, President Putin has said that Moscow has completed the development of Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile.
According to data by Swedish think tank Stockholm International of Peace and Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia accounted for 16 percent of the global arms exports in 2018-22, secondly only to the US. The report said that combat aircraft and helicopters have ranked as Russia's top defense exports since 1992.
International military-technical forum Army-2023 Expo, Russia
© Sputnik / Mikhail Voskresenskiy
/ India, China and Egypt ranked as the top recipients of Russian arms during the period, according to SIPRI.
Sahgal agreed with the assessment that the Ukraine conflict was proving “too costly” for the US and European Union (EU) and that the “appetite to support” the Kiev regime was wearing thin among western allies.
“The problem of the US is that it has weak allies who can’t fill the power gap,” stated the Indian think-tanker, adding that the global power dynamics were indeed in a “state of flux”.
Sahgal said that the developments in Israel-Hamas war, the deadliest escalation of the Palestine dispute in decades, would further impact the US, particularly its Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing global developments, the retired Indian Brigadier declared that it was “premature” to come to any conclusion on the “decline of Russia” or even about a bipolar US-China centric global order.
What’s Unique About Russia?
Sawhney underlined that what was unique about Russia was that it was “self-sufficient” in natural resources, minerals and has a “formidable military-industrial complex”.
Sawhney said that Russia’s military-industrial complex hadn’t suffered any setback due to western sanctions and restrictions on exports of high-tech raw materials such as semiconductors, despite reports to the contrary in western media and statements by leaderships of G7 nations.
“The Russia military-industrial complex is working 24*7 because of the huge orders that they have got from their Ministry of Defense,” the Indian expert stated.
He explained that there could be several possible reasons behind the slight delay in the supply of S-400 self-propelled Triumf surface-to-air missiles to India.
“One reason is of course the payments. The cross-border transfer of funds still remains problem which is in the process of being sorted out,” reckoned the expert.
“And the second reason, which is quite obvious, is that the Russian military-industrial complex must prioritize orders from their own Ministry of Defense before fulfilling foreign orders,” he outlined.
In fact, Russia's defense budget is expected to rise year-on-year by 70 percent to nearly $112 billion in 2024, according to Kremlin estimates reported in French media last month.
The Russian economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2023, reversing contraction suffered due to western sanctions last year. The projection was made by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in a media interview this year.
Significantly, Russia's oil and gas revenues have grown by 15 percent in September as compared to the month before, in what points towards failure of western restrictions on Russian energy exports.
Major India-Russia Defense Deals
India and Russia signed a $5.4 billion deal for the purchase of five S-400 batteries in 2018. Three of the batteries have already been delivered to India, with at least one of them reportedly deployed near the western sector of the Sino-India border.
Moscow has said that the remaining part of the order would be supplied to India by early next year.
Russia and India are also in talks to upgrade the range of Brahmos supersonic missiles.
The two countries are also involved in co-production of SU-30 MKI fighter jets, T-9 tanks and AK-203 assault rifles.
