US Mounts Pressure, Russia Remains Stoic & Resolute
20:15 15.06.2024 (Updated: 20:16 15.06.2024)
© Sputnik / Alexei Vetvitsky
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Here is a fact that even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledges - the US has dramatically stepped up its involvement in attacks on Russian territory.
Blinken justified the increased involvement by saying that Washington adapts and adjusts its support.
The US leadership in May authorised the use of US long range precision guided munitions (PGMs) against Russia. Ironically, for two years, the US President Joe Biden had consistently maintained that such an authorisation could lead to a direct conflict between the US and Russia.
"Adapt and Adjust" notwithstanding, why would the authorisation now not lead to a direct conflict?
PGMs, like the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), are guided to their targets by a US satellite navigation system (GPS) using real time targeting data acquired by US aerial and space based ISR assets. The raw data acquired by ISR assets is analysed and interpreted by US analysts and communicated to the US weapon system using a US communication satellite constellation.
A soldier walks in front of a M142 HIMARS High Mobility Artillery Rocket System during the Dynamic Front military exercise led by the United States at the Oksboel Training and Shooting Range in Oksbol, Denmark on March 30, 2023.
© AFP 2023 BO AMSTRUP
The US authorisation had its impact. According to Western sources, on June 3, 2024, U.S. M142 HIMARS rockets launched from Ukraine destroyed an S-400 air defence (AD) missile system on Russian territory near the Kharkov region.
Considering that both the US and Russia are major nuclear powers, the US HIMARS attack on Russia was unprecedented and highly escalatory.
Not only has the US struck Russia with its weapons located in Ukraine, there is now circumstantial evidence that suggests the US is also involved in deep strikes into Russia by fixed wing drones launched from Ukraine. These low flying drones are dynamically routed to evade Russian AD systems, courtesy manned and unmanned US/NATO aerial ISR assets positioned in international airspace close to Russia to find gaps in Russian radar coverage.
Voronezh-M Strike
On May 26, 2024, a Ukrainian drone travelled approximately 930 miles from Kiev-controlled territory to target a Voronezh-M radar near the city of Orsk, in the Orenburg region close to the border with Kazakhstan.
During its 1,100 miles journey, the low flying fixed wing drone was highly likely routed dynamically by US aerial ISR assets to evade radar detection.
It's worth noting that the Voronezh-M missile launch early warning radar targetted is a Russian strategic asset. The strike on the radar was in no way militarily relevant to Ukraine, from where it originated. The strike makes sense only as a message from the US to Russia that its strategic military assets are highly vulnerable.
Drone Attack on Akhtubinsk Flight Test Center in the Astrakhan region
On June 8, 2024, a Ukrainian fixed wing drone struck Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region of Russia. Based on public domain satellite imagery it is possible that a RuAF (Russian Aerospace Forces) Su-57 fighter parked on the tarmac was damaged.
The Akhtubinsk airfield, located approximately 589 km from the frontlines of the conflict, serves as the test-flight centre for the RuAF. As such, it is not defended like a military base.
The Su-57 fighter targeted was a prototype, not configured for active operations. As such, the Ukrainian strike was not aimed at degrading Russian offensive capability; it was a message from the US to the Russian leadership, exposing the vulnerability of Russian air defences.
Russian Response
The attacks on the Voronezh-M radar and the Akhtubinsk flight test centre, were likely aimed at provoking a disproportionate Russian response.
If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine were to escalate into a confrontation between Russia and NATO, Russia and NATO countries would suffer heavy destruction, economic losses and casualties. (The US, located across the Atlantic Ocean, would experience no destruction or economic losses.) As such, it's unlikely that NATO countries would militarily engage Russia unless they were attacked by Russia.
A disproportionate Russian response to a US provocation could scare NATO's European nations to enter the conflict in support of Ukraine.
Russia has no desire to escalate the conflict, though it remains resolute in its desire to achieve the aims of the SMO (Special Military Operations).
Despite the heavy involvement of the US and NATO in the strikes on the Voronezh-M radar and the Akhtubinsk airbase, Russian response has been sedate and measured. Brushing aside doctrinal technicality, Russia has refused to consider the US attacks on its territory as existential threats.
Responding to the provocation, Russian forces merely carried out what they termed a “massive strike on Ukraine’s military control system.”
However, speaking at the SPIEF (Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum), President Putin clearly articulated Russian intent to retaliate in case of a strike that Russia believes poses an existential threat. The response would be mandated by Russia's Nuclear Doctrine, which Putin advised Russian adversaries to read.
Vladimir Putin speaks at 2024 SPIEF plenary session
© Sputnik / Ivan Sekretarev
/ US Continues to Up the Ante
It's likely that Russia's sober response to recent US provocations wasn't the outcome that the US was seeking.
It appears that the US will continue with its provocation to elicit an irrational Russian response, which the US could leverage to goad NATO nations into a hot war with Russia.
Deployment of Ukrainian F-16 in NATO Countries
General Sergey Golubtsov, commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, in a recent interview with Radio Svoboda, said that a certain number of F-16s transferred to Ukraine would be stored at secure air bases outside of Ukraine, so that they will not be targets here.
"This will be our reserve if it is necessary to replace faulty aircraft during routine maintenance," he said.
The Ukrainian intent, almost certainly shaped with US backing, is clearly aimed at drawing Russia into a confrontation with NATO.
Afterall, a F-16 that has flown operational missions in Ukraine would be a legal target for Russian forces, irrespective of where it is subsequently based. So if a Ukrainian F-16 that has flown operational missions in Ukraine were to be transferred to reserve in Poland, it would still remain a legitimate target for RuAF.
In this handout photo from the U.S. Air Force, an airman guides an F-16 Fighting Falcon during training at Al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar, Jan. 24, 2022.
© Photo : US Air Force Capt. Mahalia Frost
Responding to the Ukrainian General's statement, Andrey Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, told Sputnik, “If they are not used for their intended purpose, they will not be (a legal target for the Russian Armed Forces - ed.), but if they take part in combat missions, then, of course, they will be. Including the airfields on which they are based, with all the ensuing consequences," Kartapolov said.
Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapon Exercises
Keeping in mind the escalatory trajectory that the US leadership has adopted, it's imperative that the Russian leadership stay prepared for the worst, something that it appears to be doing already.
Following persistent announcements by leaders of NATO countries, infamously including France's President Emmanuel Macron, that their country would send their forces to Ukraine to fight against Russian forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on May 6 that Russia's non-strategic nuclear forces would conduct an exercise involving Russia’s TNW (Tactical Nuclear Weapons).
“The exercise is aimed at maintaining the readiness of personnel and equipment of units for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in order to unconditionally ensure Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty in response to provocative statements and threats from Western officials,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Phase 1 of the TNW exercise, which signaled Russia’s resolve and readiness in the current geopolitical context, started on June 8, 2024. The phase focused on the process of acquiring specialised ammunition for the Iskander tactical missile system. Additionally, the aviation forces trained to equip special warheads for the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.
Phase 2 of the exercise, which started on June 11, is aimed at training personnel to fit tactical nuclear warheads on Kinzhals and Iskander-M missiles.
According to Russian sources, Russian Tu-22M3 strategic aircraft carrying supersonic Kh-32 aircraft are also participating in the exercises.
Iskander-M, Kinzhal and Kh-32 are Russia’s three most destructive tactical missiles capable of being fitted with nuclear warheads. They are extremely difficult to engage using western air defence systems.
Kinzhal hypersonic air missile system infographic mob
Conclusion
Based on public domain information - relentless US transgression of Russian security red lines and the complete absence of peace negotiations - the world appears to be inexorably heading towards a general nuclear war.
As mentioned earlier, Russia's reaction to US provocations has been muted, because Russia is focused on achieving its SMO aims, not fighting NATO. However, in his interactions at SPIEF President Putin made it clear that Russia will invoke its nuclear doctrine if a provocation goes far and deep.
What is deeply troubling about the current situation is that the US and its NATO allies have given Ukraine the means to draw the US and NATO into a direct conflict with Russia through indiscriminate use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow or Scalp missiles.
The Ukrainian leadership is not known for its discretion. It has a record of using every opportunity possible to escalate the conflict, which it knows it cannot win. So why would the Ukrainian leadership not order a strike on a Russian strategic asset with an ATACMS?
Whether we are ready to accept it or not, the world is one Ukrainian ATACMS strike (on a Russian strategic asset) away from a conflict that would almost certainly escalate into a general nuclear war.
