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Rapprochement With India to Help China Counter US Pressure Under Trump 2.0: Experts
Rapprochement With India to Help China Counter US Pressure Under Trump 2.0: Experts
Sputnik India
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri will visit Beijing on Sunday for talks with Chinese Vice-Minister Sun Weidong as part of the Sino-India normalisation process agreed upon by PM Modi and President Xi
2025-01-25T20:32+0530
2025-01-25T20:32+0530
2025-01-25T21:06+0530
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The re-normalisation of ties with India after the 21 October disengagement pact in eastern Ladakh is in China's near-term strategic interest and helps the world's second-biggest economy counter the policies of Trump administration.Indian strategic affairs experts spoke to Sputnik India ahead of the resumption of the Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism between the two neighbours.Misri is the second highest-ranking Indian official to visit Beijing in recent months, with National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval also in Beijing last month for the Special Representatives (SR) meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, as the two Asian neighbours shift gears in bilateral relations in the wake of the four-and-a-half-year-old border row finally nearing resolution.Professor Harsh V. Pant, Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at New Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), said that multiple factors could be behind the "recalibration" of China's policy towards India in recent months."In India, what has happened is that an entire generation of Indians have started to view China in a negative light, coalescing around the idea of China being a strategic threat. This is something that China wouldn't want," he remarked.Pant argued that the normalisation of ties with India, the world's largest market and the fastest-growing major economy, also made economic logic for Beijing to offset potential problems caused by domestic factors and the threat of tariffs from the incoming US administration.He noted that the "China Plus" strategy being promoted by Western countries to move global supply chains away from China was also a concern for Beijing."Under these circumstances, Chinese economic interests would be served well by resolving the border situation, which India says is a precondition for normalising bilateral relations," Pant stressed.He added that the "Trump factor" was definitely at play in the mellowing of China's stance on the Ladakh border row.Trump has threatened to slap a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports from February 1.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in a phone call that the Trump administration has a "serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea". But a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout of the Rubio-Wang Yi phone call on Friday quoted the US Secretary of State saying that Washington does not support Taiwanese independence and hoped that the issue would be resolved in a way acceptable to both sides.But Saibal Dasgupta, a columnist and author of book 'Running with the Dragon', contends that Trump's foreign policy would be largely "transactional".Dasgupta said Trump's election was why Beijing was seeking an expedited rapprochement with India. He stressed that Chinese scholars had already anticipated a Trump victory.Dr. Hemant Adlakha, the Vice-Chairperson and Honorary Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS) told Sputnik India that recent commentary in Chinese media suggested that Beijing was keen to "re-normalise" relations with India."By normalcy, they mean that business and economic ties should normalise," he said.He agreed with other experts that Trump's victory had created a "sense of wariness" in China.At the same time, China has been expanding its ties with Global South nations in Africa and Latin America, he added. "Basically, Beijing is looking to consolidate its economic ties with as many countries as possible, which seems to be a strategy to offset the adverse impact of any potential trade war with the US."Retired Indian Army lieutenant colonel JS Sodhi, the author of book 'China's War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate', told Sputnik India that the decision to seek truce with India was possibly linked to Taiwan issue.
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Rapprochement With India to Help China Counter US Pressure Under Trump 2.0: Experts
20:32 25.01.2025 (Updated: 21:06 25.01.2025) Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri will visit Beijing on Sunday for talks with Chinese Vice-Minister Sun Weidong as part of the Sino-India normalisation process agreed upon by PM Modi and President Xi at their meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan last October. All issues are up for discussion, the external affairs ministry said.
The re-normalisation of ties with India after the 21 October disengagement pact in eastern Ladakh is in China's near-term strategic interest and helps the world's second-biggest economy counter the policies of Trump administration.
Indian strategic affairs experts spoke to Sputnik India ahead of the resumption of the Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism between the two neighbours.
Misri is the second highest-ranking Indian official to visit Beijing in recent months, with National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval also in Beijing last month for the Special Representatives (SR) meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, as the two Asian neighbours shift gears in bilateral relations in the wake of the four-and-a-half-year-old border row finally nearing resolution.
Professor Harsh V. Pant, Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at New Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), said that multiple factors could be behind the "recalibration" of China's policy towards India in recent months.
"Firstly, there seems to be a realisation that China didn't gain much in terms of territory or leverage by unilaterally altering the border status quo in 2020. On the contrary, what it has done is led to hardening of India's military and diplomatic position, ramping of border infrastructure and counter-deployments of massive weapons and troops at the border," Pant said.
"In India, what has happened is that an entire generation of Indians have started to view China in a negative light, coalescing around the idea of China being a strategic threat. This is something that China wouldn't want," he remarked.
The Indian academic said China should take into account what its most "pressing strategic priorities" were in the near-to-medium term, "whether they are Taiwan, the South China Sea or the East China Sea, or if it is to prolong the Himalayan border dispute on the western frontier."
Pant argued that the normalisation of ties with India, the world's largest market and the fastest-growing major economy, also made economic logic for Beijing to offset potential problems caused by domestic factors and the threat of tariffs from the incoming US administration.
He noted that the "China Plus" strategy being promoted by Western countries to move global supply chains away from China was also a concern for Beijing.
"Under these circumstances, Chinese economic interests would be served well by resolving the border situation, which India says is a precondition for normalising bilateral relations," Pant stressed.
He added that the "Trump factor" was definitely at play in the mellowing of China's stance on the Ladakh border row.
"There is an expectation that Trump's trade and strategic policies would impact China more than other countries, as it is the biggest trading partner and branded as a strategic rival under Trump 1.0," Pant said. "In these circumstances, China would want normalised ties with India, its biggest neighbour and a fellow BRICS partner."
Trump has threatened to slap a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports from February 1.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in a phone call that the Trump administration has a "serious concern over China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea".
But a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout of the Rubio-Wang Yi phone call on Friday quoted the US Secretary of State saying that Washington does not support Taiwanese independence and hoped that the issue would be resolved in a way acceptable to both sides.
But Saibal Dasgupta, a columnist and author of book 'Running with the Dragon', contends that Trump's foreign policy would be largely "transactional".
Dasgupta said Trump's election was why Beijing was seeking an expedited rapprochement with India. He stressed that Chinese scholars had already anticipated a Trump victory.
"This is a time when China is hugely worried about Donald trump. The BRICS countries want to work out a coordinated response to
Trump's tariff threat, as evidenced by the recent video call between Xi and President Putin. China would like India to be onboard as well," Dasgupta explained.
Dr. Hemant Adlakha, the Vice-Chairperson and Honorary Fellow at the
Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS) told Sputnik India that recent commentary in Chinese media suggested that Beijing was keen to
"re-normalise" relations with India.
"By normalcy, they mean that business and economic ties should normalise," he said.
"Several Chinese scholars are also of the view that the re-normalisation process with India has happened because India has been wanting it more than China," Adlakha noted.
He agreed with other experts that Trump's victory had created a "sense of wariness" in China.
"In recent months, we have seen that China has been looking to expand its economic partnerships in the neighbourhood, which include South and southeast Asia," Adlakha said.
At the same time, China has been expanding its ties with Global South nations in Africa and Latin America, he added. "Basically, Beijing is looking to consolidate its economic ties with as many countries as possible, which seems to be a strategy to offset the adverse impact of any potential trade war with the US."
Retired Indian Army lieutenant colonel JS Sodhi, the author of book 'China's War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate', told Sputnik India that the decision to seek truce with India was possibly linked to Taiwan issue.
