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NATO Divides: Where Would Europe Stand if US Walks Away?

© AP Photo / Vadim GhirdaA Romanian serviceman furls the NATO flag. File photo
A Romanian serviceman furls the NATO flag. File photo - Sputnik India, 1920, 22.03.2025
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The current global paradigm shifts, particularly within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and defence strategies under President Donald Trump, reveal significant strains in relations between allies, according to a former diplomat.
US President Donald Trump's trade policies, including tariffs on European allies, the restructuring of military leadership, and the perceived reduction in the role of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), have contributed to tensions between allies, a former diplomat told Sputnik India.
Collectively, these actions — from withdrawing US troops from Germany to reducing investment in NATO and European countries — may lead to deeper divisions among NATO member countries as allies reassess their defence commitments and the reliability of US support, former ambassador and ex-deputy head of mission at the Pakistan Embassy in Moscow), Ata Munim Shahid, said.

"Several NATO allies are reevaluating their procurement of US-made F-35 fighter jets, reflecting broader changes in defence strategies. For instance, Canada is reconsidering its $13.3 billion deal for 88 F-35 fighter jets to explore alternative options. Similarly, Germany and Portugal have also shown uncertainty about acquiring jets from the US due to its policies," Shahid elaborated.

Trump’s direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, reduction of military aid, and abrupt suspension of intelligence sharing have alarmed European leaders, which has compelled them to reconsider their reliance on US military protection. The former diplomat stated that these actions led to the announcement of a 'Coalition of the Willing' on March 2 in London, signaling Europe’s intent to take control of its own defence.
Discussing the ramping up of European nations' defence spending, the former envoy stated that the UK has pledged to increase its defence budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with a long-term target of 3%. Meanwhile, Germany plans to raise its defence budget to $107 billion annually. French President Emmanuel Macron has even proposed extending France’s nuclear deterrence to other European nations.

"Meanwhile, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has unveiled the Rearm Europe plan, calling for €800 billion in defence spending to strengthen Europe’s military capabilities. Despite these commitments, Europe acknowledges that building a self-sufficient defence infrastructure will take years," he stated. "To maintain US military engagement, European leaders persuaded Volodymyr Zelensky to issue an apology to Trump, which facilitated renewed diplomatic discussions on a ceasefire with Russia."

Given the current geopolitical landscape, NATO’s future seems to be at a crossroads, professor Srinivasan Balakrishnan, director of strategic engagements and partnerships at Indic Researchers Forum and national president of Bharatiya Yuva Seva Sangh (BYSS), told Sputnik India.
Trump’s trade war with China, controversial stance on Greenland, and approach to the Ukraine-Russia conflict weakened relations with some NATO allies, as his 'America First' policy often clashed with the collective interests of the alliance, he added.
Since taking office, Donald Trump has escalated tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and some European nations. He has also sidelined European allies, engaged directly with Russia on the Ukraine conflict, and expressed interest in acquiring Greenland. These actions, driven by his 'America First', have strained relations with traditional allies.
Reports indicate that Canada is reconsidering its $13 billion F-35 deal, Germany is uncertain about its 35-aircraft order, and Portugal has raised concerns over US-NATO relations.

"Abandoning and reconsidering the defence deals by Canada, Germany and Portugal is showing that Europe is no longer willing to be Washington’s pawn," Balakrishnan underlined. "The divisions within NATO are not mere cracks — they are canyons. Trump’s aggressive tactics — threatening tariffs and demanding 5% of GDP for defence spending — have pushed the EU to consider an unthinkable yet pragmatic choice: cling to a sinking US-led ship or pivot toward Asia."

The EU’s future does not lie with a crumbling NATO — it lies with forging a powerful grand strategic alliance with India and China, enabling Europe to abandon America’s sinking ship. Watch as Brussels pivots eastward while NATO unravels, he summed up.
Canada's Foreign Minister Maxime Bernier arrives for a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, Thursday March 6, 2008. - Sputnik India, 1920, 15.01.2025
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