No More Alliances: The World Follows India’s Example In Foreign Policy
© Photo : PMO
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India’s foreign policy of balance is a mystery only for those who have their feet firmly planted in the past. But that policy looks to be a future norm for those who watch the changes in global scene.
One of those changes is all too obvious, that is, we are witnessing the demise of firm, “eternal” alliances of the previous century and see only temporary coalitions instead.
Now I intend to quote several Russian foreign policy pundits who, in my opinion, are currently the best among those who can see the big picture. I’ve met most of them and follow their ideas avidly.
One of them, Andrei Kortunov of the Valdai discussion club, has approached from an unexpected angle the recent summit in Moscow, that happened in the course of celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Russian victory in the Second World War. To remind, 27 top leaders of foreign nations participated, as well as delegations on lower level from other countries.
So how could it happen, says Mr. Kortunov, that these Europeans, leaders of Serbia and Slovakia, attended the military parade in Moscow and other events there?
To remind, Europe in general is obviously the real warring side in the ongoing military conflict with Russia, while Ukraine is only an unlucky stooge there. So how come that a member and a candidate to membership in the European Union have come to Moscow, being aware of all the formidable arsenal of possible pressure on them?
To add, how is that possible that Turkey, member of NATO, was actively participating in preparations for resumption of Russo-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul, while NATO in general was, and is, still bombarding Moscow with ultimatums that only cause hoops of laughter here?
And that is not to mention the key NATO member, the US, which is now virtually opposing the European members of NATO in the same conflict.
The general picture is simple, says Mr. Kortunov. It shows us that gone are the days of traditional rigid ideological alliances with their iron discipline. We see the loss of power of old international hierarchical order. Leaders of the nations make their decisions by joining some temporary coalitions around this or that international issue, and are not in the least afraid of suffering the consequences of that breach of the old order.
And that is because the overall situation in the world is likely to change any moment, and change again, so it’s only prudent to keep strategic autonomy in all cases. No, these words do not belong to Kortunov, I took them from a number of Indian publications, explaining the rationale for many decisions of your government in all kind of situations. So India is not an exception in following that wisdom anymore, it was only an early trailblazer in that regard, though Turkey and others tried that approach even earlier.
But what has caused these tectonic changes in global policy? Here I always follow the opinions of Timothei Bordachev, also of Valdai fame and a known expert on European affairs.
Commenting on the same “victory summit” in Moscow, he says: one of the reasons for change is the demise of Europe as a global leader. For 500 years Europe was exporting political, ideological and engineering technologies to Russia (and to most of the world, as we all know only too well). But now these Europeans are afraid even to give their own voters the right to bring changes and alternatives to their own countries. That’s political and ideological technologies to you. While technologies as such are coming to Russia from all possible directions but the Western one, not to mention the sudden surge in purely Russian start-ups.
The result is stunning. Three years of Russian resistance to the Western onslaught have fattened the export orders portfolio of the Rostech to 60 billion dollars, which never happened before, says Sergei Chemezov, the general director of that umbrella corporation for civilian and defense industries. Surely that’s a slightly unexpected result of the Western attempt to compete with Russia in the military field. These 60 billion are the result of the hardest possible test for any kind of hard- and software in defense.
How about the US and why the current American administration is doing its utmost to quash the wars in Europe or the Middle East? My own take is: the US is on the brink of total reset as a superpower. The reason is simple. America was the world’s top producer 80 years ago, with estimates coming up to 50 per cent of global production. Then it was, officially, 28.4 per cent in 2001, and 17.4 per cent in 2023.
To add, I’m not sure at all that China will win the ongoing economic war with the US and maintain its current technological leadership. Wars are a waste, and some unexpected outcomes are possible.
What may an unexpected result look like? Here I’d like to quote Ambassador Alexander Yakovenko (his last diplomatic assignment was in London). He, like everybody else, is witnessing changes in the global Western empire that once was sure of its eternal domination over the whole world. But the instrument of that domination, that is globalization of everything, has brought unexpected results.
So, he says, in that uncertain world of today, where there are no other global projects to speak of, maximum you may hope for is a show of unity of some big economic regions, driven together by sheer geography. (If I’m allowed to interpose, here I’d love dearly to see how that neighborly logic may form regional solidarity in South Asia).
While the Western world, says Yakovenko, may yet demonstrate some unexpected trends. We all have seen, thanks to the recent election of an anti-Trump party in Canada, that Canada is not willing to become a part of the US. But how about 80 per cent of Canadians theoretically accepting the idea of becoming a part of the United Kingdom again, with similar trends in Australia?
That’s what surveys are saying, at least. Funny that people over there are asking such questions in those surveys, and who would even think of this only a decade ago?
The nations that are likely to survive the oncoming global reset, says Yakovenko, may be the ones that may afford, at least theoretically, to be very much on their own, not bending to any kind of economic or cultural winds. Russia has just shown its ability to be that kind of nation, the US have a good chance of survival, too. How about China? That’s a good question.
And how about India, with its already vast experience of strategic autonomy? In any case it will be thrilling to live through the coming couple of decades and see the real world of tomorrow taking shape.
Dmitry Kosyrev is a Russian writer, author of spy novels and short stories. He also did columns for the Pioneer and Firstpost.com
