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Kpler Debunks Trump's Claims on India's Russian Oil Purchases
Kpler Debunks Trump's Claims on India's Russian Oil Purchases
Sputnik India
EU-headquartered Energy analytics firm Kpler has ruled out any near-term "policy change" on part of India to reduce its oil purchases from Russia, according to a blog published on Tuesday.
2025-10-22T17:14+0530
2025-10-22T17:14+0530
2025-10-22T17:14+0530
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EU-headquartered energy analytics firm Kpler has ruled out any near-term "policy change" on part of India to reduce its oil purchases from Russia, according to a blog published on Tuesday.It said that India's oil purchases from Russia remained "robust" and "central" to New Delhi's energy policy, in effect negating Trump’s statements that New Delhi has already been cutting down on its oil imports from Russia.It noted that New Delhi hadn't confirmed Trump's claims in any of its official statements it had released so far.Describing a scenario if the US and EU continue to pile up pressure on India over its Russian oil purchases, Kpler reckoned that Indian refiners at best could make a "token reduction" to the tune of 100,000-200,000 bpd to "demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners". The blog said that Indian refiners could increase their intake of crude from Middle East, Latin America, and the US, but these inflows won't unseat Russia from its position as New Delhi's top crude supplier.Kpler noted that India's rationale for purchasing Russian oil was clear."... Russian barrels remain one of the most economical feedstock options available to Indian refiners, due to landed discounts and high Gross Product Worth (GPW) margin outputs from grades such as Urals... Furthermore, the country's energy system is now structurally integrated with Russian supply through term deals, established supply chains, and optimised refinery configurations," the blog said."The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, costly, and risky. Russia still supplies around 30-35% of India’s crude. Substitution would require rapid scaling from multiple suppliers, at higher costs (freight, weaker discounts)," it said.Kpler said that international crude prices would determine in the medium to long-term if India chose to move away from Russian crude rather than any western pressure.
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Kpler Debunks Trump's Claims on India's Russian Oil Purchases
"Russian barrels maintain their position as the largest single source of crude for India, with a market share of roughly 34%. This underscores the deep economic and structural reliance that is unlikely to be unwound by political rhetoric alone," stated Kpler.
EU-headquartered energy analytics firm Kpler has ruled out any near-term "policy change" on part of India to reduce its oil purchases from Russia, according to a blog published on Tuesday.
Noting Trump's repeated claims since October 15 about having received assurances from Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India would cut down its oil purchases from Russia, Kpler said that these appeared to be "pressure tactics linked to (bilateral) trade negotiations".
It said that India's oil purchases from Russia remained "robust" and "central" to New Delhi's energy policy, in effect negating Trump’s statements that New Delhi has already been cutting down on its oil imports from Russia.
"Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons. Kpler data shows no visible sign of a reduction, with October imports tracking around 1.8 million barrels per day (Mbd).
It noted that New Delhi
hadn't confirmed Trump's claims in any of its official statements it had released so far.
Significantly, Kpler estimated that Russian crude imports stood in October (till then) were up by 250,000 bpd from September. "Russian crude remains structurally vital for India, accounting for roughly 34% of its total imports and offering compelling discounts that are too significant for refiners to ignore," the energy flow tracking company said.
Describing a scenario if the US and EU continue to pile up pressure on India over its Russian oil purchases, Kpler reckoned that Indian refiners at best could make a "token reduction" to the tune of 100,000-200,000 bpd to "demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners". The blog said that Indian refiners could increase their intake of crude from Middle East, Latin America, and the US, but these inflows won't unseat Russia from its position as New Delhi's top crude supplier.
"However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformative," it stated.
Commenting on the feasibility of US crude for Indian refiners, Kpler said that American grades faced "higher outright and transportation costs, along with compatibility challenges". Still, Indian refiners have increased their purchases of American crude by around 100,000 bpd in 2025.
Kpler noted that India's rationale for purchasing Russian oil was clear.
"... Russian barrels remain one of the most economical feedstock options available to Indian refiners, due to landed discounts and high Gross Product Worth (GPW) margin outputs from grades such as Urals... Furthermore, the country's energy system is now structurally integrated with Russian supply through term deals, established supply chains, and optimised refinery configurations," the blog said.
Kpler also highlighted risks for New Delhi if the Indian government decided to move away from Russian crude.
"The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult,
costly, and risky. Russia still supplies around 30-35% of India’s crude. Substitution would require rapid scaling from multiple suppliers, at higher costs (freight, weaker discounts)," it said.
Further, Kpler explained that reduction in margins or increasing of retail prices could lead to "inflation, political backlash, and weaker refinery profitability".
"Higher-cost crude could also worsen domestic operating budgets and put pressure on refiner credit lines," it cautioned.
Kpler said that international crude prices would determine in the medium to long-term if India chose to move away from Russian crude rather than any western pressure.
